Skip to main content

Sharp Rise in Tensions in Eastern Ukraine


By The Saker
It is hard to get a good picture of what is happening in the eastern Ukraine, but looking at various sources it appears to me that large protests have occurred in the cities of Lugansk, Kharkov and Donetsk. From the video footage some rather large crowds, including a lot of women, have assembled in the city centers. In Donetsk and Lugansk the demonstrators have seized the governmental buildings including the local HQs of the Ukrainian SBU(security service). In Donetsk the demonstrators have gathered into something like a popular assembly and have declared the creation of a "People's Republic of Donetsk" and have announced that they plan to hold a referendum on the future of the region on April 11th. The best sign, however, that things are becoming very serious in that the entire top ruling elite of the revolutionary government in Kiev - including Yulia Timoshenko - has relocated to the eastern Ukraine to try to get the situation under control.

My sense is that the crowds in the east seem very angry and very determined and that it might be very hard to get them out, at least without bloodshed (which could trigger a sudden appearance of "Polite Armed Men in Green"). The big weakness of the Russian-speakers in the eastern Ukraine is that their leaders are either already in SBU dungeons or rather tepid and weak. Nobody seems to be really in control.

In the meantime, RT is reporting that Ukrainian nationalists in Kiev have stormed the Supreme Court. Previously, they also attempted to storm the Ukrainian Parliament (but the western press "did not notice" that).

Civil wars are far more likely to occur when there is a vacuum of power than against a strong regime and this is exactly what we see in the Ukraine. For all the desperate attempts of the western elites and corporate media to try to pretend like there is a government in Kiev, the reality is clearly that there is no authority in power anywhere in the Ukraine. Not in the West, not in the Center and not in the East. All we have is complete chaos and many different factions and groups trying to take control.

Again, it is clear to me that unless the USA and Russia strike some kind of deal together the rump-Ukraine is headed straight for a civil war. I am not saying that I like the notion of the USA and Russia deciding the future of the Ukraine instead of the Ukrainian people, but I am saying that the conditions are simply not here for the Ukrainian people to express their will. Besides, the Ukraine being a completely artificial state, there is no way that the hopes and desires of the people in the western Ukraine and the eastern Ukraine can be reconciled. From this flows a simple fact: the more de-centralized a unitary Ukraine would be the more chances of survival it would have. In other words, when the Banderites and the West are insisting on one centralized unitary Ukraine they are actually contributing to the breakup of the country. In these conditions - why should Russia intervene. All it has to do is wait for the final collapse and then pick up whatever piece it will deem worthy of interest.

Stay tuned, the next couple of weeks will be crucial.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re...
Post a Comment
Read more

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has ...
Post a Comment
Read more

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, sp...
1 comment
Read more