Control of Libya in the Balance as Rebels Attack Tripoli

Lt. General Khalifa Haftar at a press conference on May 17.(AFP/Getty Images)

Analysis

Fighting erupted in Libya's capital city on May 18 when a militia loyal to Lt. General Khalifa Hafter reportedly attacked the Libyan Parliament. Earlier in the week Hafter-affiliated militias launched an operation against a February 17 Martyr's Brigade base in Benghazi. The government-aligned Martyr's Brigade is considered one of the biggest and best-armed Islamist militias in Libya. If the reports are confirmed, the assault on the Parliament in Tripoli means that Hafter’s forces are now engaged in battle across Libya’s two traditional seats of power. It is quite possible that Hafter is attempting to consolidate power in Libya, hoping to bring an end to the chaos that has wracked the country since the overthrow of the Gadhafi regime in 2011. It is believed that Hafter's broader intent is to push the Islamists out of Benghazi and oust the General National Congress from Tripoli, effectively taking control of Libya.

Haftar’s forces reportedly used airstrikes in their operations in Benghazi, though at this point Stratfor is unsure of the exact size and disposition of the force deployed to Tripoli, or indeed who may be allied with Haftar himself.

Haftar has a long relationship with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency that has been well documented in the press. He worked with the Americans to form an anti–Gadhafi militia in the 1980s that operated in the south of Libya, and from neighboring Chad. The militia was reportedly forced to leave Chad in 1991, prompting Hafter to move to the United States.

Last week 200 U.S. Marines were prepositioned in Sicily, on alert to respond to contingencies in Northern Africa. This troop movement could be an indication that the U.S. government was aware of Hafter’s planned operations, having the Marines ready in advance to reinforce the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli if the need arises.

At this point there are more questions than answers, but it is possible that this move could be more than just another short-term militia event in Tripoli. If this is a drive to consolidate power in Libya, the parliamentary attack could lead to extensive fighting between Hafter’s forces, allies and opposing militias in Tripoli and Benghazi. Stratfor will keep a very close eye on Libya in the coming hours to further assess the situation.

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