Rebel- and Regime-Held Cities in Syria

Throughout the Syrian conflict, the regime has had the strongest control over the predominantly Alawite coastal areas despite brief and isolated rebel offensives, the most recent of which took place in late March. The regime mostly has control over Damascus proper, but rebels are still entrenched in a number of rural areas surrounding the capital, undermining the regime's complete control of the province and tying up vast numbers of loyalist forces. But Aleppo is one of the areas where the regime has had the most difficulty exerting control over the past three years. While the regime and rebels continue to battle for complete control of the city, the surrounding area includes large chunks of rebel-controlled territory, and a combination of Kurds and the two al Qaeda affiliates -- the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and Jabhat al-Nusra -- control the areas in eastern Syria.

Given the current conditions, it is unlikely that the Syrian regime will be able to seize complete control over the core geographic and economic hubs within the next year. We have written extensively about the support structure that enables the regime to remain in its position of strength: the unity of the al Assad regime, Alawite control over the military-intelligence apparatus and the continued economic assistance of foreign backers and Sunni business elite. Alternatively, the rebels have stayed in the fight mostly due to foreign support, a similar ideological motivation and significant demographic support for their cause. However, should there be a mass desertion of rebels, widespread and prolonged infighting or the loss of foreign support, more lasting regime gains could be expected across the country.

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