Ukrainian independent presidential candidate Petro Poroshenko greets supporters during an election campaign rally on May 20 in Cherkasy.MYKOLA LAZARENKO/AFP/Getty Images
Summary
With Ukraine's political future hanging in the balance, the country will hold its presidential election May 25. Insecurity in the east will complicate the election, but after the polls take place Ukraine's greatest challenge will be finding a way to deal with Russia. Moscow's moves indicate it may recognize the results of the election, but Russia will make a strong push to politically neutralize Ukraine.
Analysis
The outcome of the election is all but certain: Petro Poroshenko, a former foreign minister and one of Ukraine's leading businessmen, has led in the polls by a wide margin for much of the past two months. He may win outright in a single round of voting by obtaining more than 50 percent of the vote, or he may register a resounding victory in a run-off. But numerous complications surrounding the presidential election will produce a challenging environment for Poroshenko -- or any future Ukrainian leader -- during and after the vote.
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The most immediate worry is the security situation in Ukraine. Since the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, the country's eastern and southern regions have been the scenes of significant anti-government and pro-Russian activity. In the far eastern and industrial regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbass), pro-Russian separatist groups have taken control of administration and security buildings. Ukrainian security forces have launched anti-terrorist operations against these separatists, but they have had little success in dislodging the groups. Separatists have set up alternative governments in both provinces -- the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic -- and these groups have said they will not recognize the elections administered by Kiev. Militants recently stormed nearly a dozen election commission offices, demanding that voting material be handed over to them, in an effort to prevent voting in the upcoming elections.
A smooth election in these regions is thus a far-fetched notion, and the likelihood of sabotage or unrest at voting stations is quite high. But although pro-Russian sentiment in these regions is significant, overall support in the same area for the separatist groups is low, especially since separatists recently began threatening to disrupt economic and business activity. This has prompted key oligarchs and industrial magnates such as Rinat Akhmetov, a popular businessman with a great deal of influence in the Donbass, to take a stronger stand against the separatists and aid the government in confronting them, specifically by carrying out citizen patrols.
But while disruptions can be expected in these regions -- and to a lesser extent in other eastern and southern areas such as Kharkiv and Odessa -- they are not likely to derail the presidential vote altogether. Even so, Ukraine has bigger worries, chief among them the position of Russia. Moscow has said that it does not recognize the legitimacy of the current government in Kiev and that it considers the ouster of Yanukovich an unconstitutional coup. Some Russian officials have also said that they would not recognize the election, though recently Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a somewhat softer tone, saying that they "could be a step in the right direction."
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Putin's position is conditional, however. The president has linked possible Russian approval with Kiev putting a stop to Ukraine's security operations in the east, as well as to making a change to the Ukrainian constitution that would decentralize the national government and hand a greater degree of power to the regions. Kiev has yet to fulfill either condition, but such moves could be forthcoming. Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said May 21 that anti-terrorism operations are entering their final stage, while the government has said it intends to move forward on the decentralization issue. Poroshenko also said that the parliament should be disbanded and that parliamentary elections should be held after the presidential election. This could yield a government more amenable to cooperation with Russia.
Moscow has also shown some initial signs that it is open to working with Kiev. Russian officials have said that they will move military forces away from the Ukrainian border and have indicated that they might compromise in negotiations over natural gas prices being held among Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. But major differences between Russia and Ukraine remain and will present a major challenge to any government in Kiev. Russia is fundamentally opposed to any Western orientation of Ukraine and will continue to undermine Kiev -- via support of separatist groups, energy manipulation or trade restrictions -- as long as Ukraine tries to strengthen its ties to the European Union and the United States. Fundamentally, Ukraine also remains a divided country, meaning that effective rule is difficult even under normal conditions.
It is in this context that Ukrainians will head to the polls for this controversial election. Ultimately, any leadership in Ukraine will face tremendous constraints. It must balance between Russia and the West over the long term, but right now it must hold the country together.
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