Ukraine: It's Now For The Long Run

By Moon Of Alabama

"MOA" - From a February 2008 wikileaked cable by the U.S. embassy in Moscow:
Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

Russia decided to not intervene, for now, and to leave the poison cocktail the "west" created boiling and in the "west's" responsibility.

Putin's offer from yesterday was not accepted within the Ukraine. The coup government announced to continue its "anti-terrorism" campaign against federalists in the east and the federalists in Donetsk and Lugansk announced not to cancel their referendum.

Elsewhere Putin's offer was somewhat accepted. It had, as Putin had announced, already been coordinated with the German chancellor Merkel and today the OSCE as the relevant organization presented a yet to be published roadmap to Russia.

If there is no serious offer of federalization in the roadmap Russia will let the Ukraine issue boil on a lower flame. The social-economic upheaval that is sure to come will in due time swamp away the coup government. Russia can always use its economic and energy leverage to hasten or slow down that process.

The whole case of Ukraine is no likely to be a longer run issue and, unless some unforeseen massacre takes place, I expect no further immediate action from the Russian side.

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