Ukraine's Port of Odessa

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In recent days, unrest in Ukraine has spread to Odessa, a port located west of Crimea. Odessa marks the southwestern edge of at least some pro-Russia sentiment, though the city is considerably different from the eastern regions. While Odessa is not like the east, it has given Russia a chance to try to weaken Kiev. The first and most important element is for the pro-Russia groups in Odessa to become more organized in an effort to provide some strategic planning and tactical guidance, giving them the potential to be more effective. In the east, Russia accomplished this by inserting covert military and intelligence personnel into the fray to help drive local sympathizers.

Nothing indicates that Russia has done this yet in Odessa. Since this strategy involves a small number of people, however, sneaking them into the city would not be too difficult; they could travel through Crimea or Transdniestria, both of which are close to Odessa (some reports stated that an unknown number of people from Transdniestria participated in the Odessa demonstrations, though this has not been confirmed). Police are establishing checkpoints around the entrances to Odessa, so transporting them by watercraft could be preferable. However, this would preclude any attempt to import pro-Russia supporters in volume -- by the busload, for example.

If Russia can get the ground support organized, it can more effectively focus its efforts. Odessa is a huge city, with a population of about 1 million, a large police force, anti-Russia activists ready to use force and a National Guard element. The pro-Russia groups must be better armed -- so far, they reportedly have used shovels, clubs and a revolver -- if they want to mimic the tactics used in the east. Other pro-Russia activists have attacked and raided armories or supply depots in police or military installations to get weaponry. If this occurs in Odessa, the pro-Russia element could become more capable of resisting Ukrainian forces and imposing a high cost on any attempt to regain territory.

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