Lesotho's prime minister, Tom Thabane, attends the 2012 Harare Agricultural Show.(JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/GettyImages)
Summary
A political crisis in Lesotho has left the parliament paralyzed as the military mobilizes in the capital of Maseru. Although the fallout from a change of government, even a potential coup, would be largely contained in Lesotho itself, South Africa has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the landlocked country. The need to prevent any disruption to South Africa's water supply or a possible wave of refugees could prompt President Jacob Zuma to intervene and restore order in Lesotho, as his country did in 1998.
Analysis
The situation in Lesotho stems from general elections held in 2012. In a move away from single party politics, the All Basotho Convention, the Lesotho Congress for Democracy and the Basotho National Party formed a coalition government to run the country. The Lesotho Congress for Democracy effectively initiated the crisis by calling for the formation of a new coalition, one that would oust incumbent Prime Minister Thomas Thabane of the All Basotho Convention. In response, Thabane suspended parliament June 19 to avoid any potential no-confidence vote against him.
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As emergency negotiations continue between the various coalition parties, an increased security presence in the capital raises concern over military action that could lead to a coup. In response, South Africa said it would not allow an unconstitutional change of government to occur in Lesotho, reportedly dispatching envoys to Maseru to assist with the negotiations.
What South Africa wants to avoid most is a security breakdown that would jeopardize water supplies. Nearly a quarter of South Africa's naturally available water originates in Lesotho, which receives 60 percent more rain than South Africa itself. The water is funneled into South Africa through a system of reservoirs, dams and transport tunnels, providing critical supplies for South Africa's population as well as its mining industry. Locations that would suffer the most from a decreased water supply are the extensive coal and platinum mining areas as well as Johannesburg and Pretoria.
South Africa's Geographic Challenge
The Lesotho Highlands Water Project, a major dam and water transfer system, is responsible for a significant portion of the water supply to South Africa. Approximately 780 million cubic meters of water was delivered in 2013, roughly 6 percent of the total South African demand. The project is developing in increments, and the next phase of its planned enlargement would further raise water supply to 1.3 billion cubic meters per year.
Any fighting that poses a physical threat to the water transfer system, or risks displacing populations across the border, is of great concern for South Africa. In fact, South Africa has little tolerance for such threats. A previous crisis in Lesotho in 1998 directly affected the operation of dams that had downstream effects for South Africa's population and economy.
In 1998, during a breakdown of constitutional order and a mutiny by the Lesotho Defense Force, troops occupied the Katse Dam, a key part of the Highlands project. To reinforce their demands, the mutinous soldiers reportedly brought explosives to damage or possibly even breach the dam. Seeing a threat to their water supplies, South Africa deployed its military, sending around 700 men, including special operations forces and paratroopers, to secure the dam and quell street violence and looting in Maseru. Any threat to one of the dams as a result of the current crisis would likely face a similar response.
The position of the military will be crucial during this round of political instability and haggling. During the 1998 crisis, existing grievances within the military led to a mutiny. Those grievances still exist today. The political crisis will not necessarily lead to the same kinds of violent protests and widespread looting of 1998, but if it does, it is possible that a breakdown of law and order could force the military to act. Lesotho's armed forces have shown no preference so far to any political party. Although it is unlikely that the military would intervene on behalf of a constituent member of the coalition, that does not rule out the fact that the Lesotho Defense Force could intervene for its own sake.
While South Africa prefers guaranteed stability through negotiation, any serious threat of destabilization, or threat to critical infrastructure, will prompt a military response. Any use of force would be short lived, however, and South Africa would be expected to withdraw its forces once the political situation normalizes and order is restored.
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