New Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin, June 5. (Carsten Koall/Getty Images)
Analysis
On June 7, Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western businessman and one of Ukraine's wealthiest individuals, will become the country's president. Six months after former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich's decision not to sign an association agreement with the European Union triggered large-scale demonstrations and ultimately a change in government, Poroshenko faces a variety of political, military and financial challenges. He will attempt to balance his campaign promise of further European integration with his goal of engaging with Moscow and ending the Russian-backed separatist militancy in Ukraine's eastern reaches.
Below are recent Stratfor analyses highlighting the events that led to Poroshenko's inauguration.
Low Expectations at the Eastern Partnership Summit
Nov. 27, 2013: The European Union held a summit of the Eastern Partnership, its flagship program to build closer ties with former Soviet states in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan), in Vilnius on Nov. 28-29. The highly anticipated summit was expected to make significant progress with a number of its target states, but in the months leading up to the summit competition intensified between the European Union and Russia over the Eastern Partnership states.
Nearing a Critical Moment in Ukraine's Protests
Jan. 24, 2014: In late January, the violent conflict pitting pro-European and nationalist protesters in Kiev against the Ukrainian government reached a stalemate, as Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was deciding whether to offer concessions or crack down on the demonstrators.
Ukraine Steps Beyond Its Constitution
Feb. 22, 2014: Following President Yanukovich's continued refusal to resign, Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, proceeded with a plan to forcibly unseat him. However, the parliament has bypassed the lengthier impeachment process and opted instead for a swift vote to dismiss him by declaring that Yanukovich is constitutionally unable to carry out his duties. This brought Ukraine into much murkier political waters.
Ukraine's New Government Faces Myriad Crises
Feb. 28, 2014: Ukraine formed a new functional government, but the various challenges facing the country presented an immediate threat to its survival. The new leadership pledged to do everything it can to avoid a default and, to that end, to look to the West for immediate financial assistance. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk argued that unpopular decisions must be taken in regard to cutting subsidies, tariffs and social programs and that passing such measures could prove "suicidal" to the government, but nevertheless they must be carried out. Meanwhile, the security situation in the country remained extremely volatile.
Russia Consolidates Control Over Crimea's Future
March 1, 2014: Moves by Russia heightened security tensions in Ukraine's autonomous republic of Crimea, deepening concerns of an imminent Russian military takeover of the peninsula. President Putin sent Russia's Federation Council -- the upper house of the Russian parliament -- a request for the use of Russian armed forces in Ukraine, which was quickly and unanimously approved. At the same time, unofficial security personnel were deployed to airports in Simferopol and Sevastopol, as well as border checkpoints near mainland Ukraine. Moreover, Crimea's leadership announced plans for a referendum. A more formal Russian military and political presence in Crimea seemed to be just a matter of time.
Ukraine: Russia Has Options if It Chooses to Invade
March 28, 2014: Russia was considering its next move following the initial rounds of sanctions from the West. The least probable option for the Kremlin also carries the greatest significance for Kiev and the West: an invasion of mainland Ukraine. The enormous military, economic and political cost of such an action makes it unlikely. Ukraine is in a very different position from Georgia, the last country Russia invaded. Despite Russia's determination to harden its western border with NATO, the United States and Europe would not let an invasion on their doorstep go unchecked.
Kiev Moves to Deal With Radical Groups
April 15, 2014: Ukraine's Right Sector group was instrumental in ousting former President Viktor Yanukovich, and the interim government in Kiev has made efforts to appease and even co-opt the group. Kiev has attempted to integrate the group into government and military organizations such as the newly created National Guard. Right Sector, however, is characterized by fluid membership and a decentralized structure, and some members continued to stage protests, threaten government officials and engage in confrontations with pro-Russian supporters across the country. Kiev has shown that it is willing to crack down on violent radicals and their activities, thus raising questions about Right Sector's future.
Ukraine's New President Faces Myriad Challenges
May 27, 2014: Petro Poroshenko has been declared the official winner in Ukraine's presidential elections, receiving around 54 percent of the vote. Despite Russia's cautious welcoming of Poroshenko's victory, the new Ukrainian leader faces some immediate challenges to his rule. Poroshenko's commitment -- at least for now -- to continue with security operations until all major separatist elements are cleared, and to continue down Ukraine's path toward European integration, will be a substantial obstacle to any significant warming of relations with Russia. Ultimately, balancing Ukraine's internal divisions, as well as its relationship with both Russia and the West, will be just as difficult a prospect for Poroshenko as it has been for previous Ukrainian leaders.
Ukraine's Government Tries to Retake Control in the East
June 4, 2014: Kiev and Moscow are escalating their battle for control of eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian government announced June 3 that it would launch the next stage of a campaign to win back control of the country's east from militant separatists. At the same time, Russian-backed groups are working to consolidate control over those same separatists as a way to put more pressure on Kiev to compromise. Both sides believe eastern Ukraine is critical for determining the country's future orientation and territorial unity, and Russia will use all the leverage it can find to pressure Kiev into accepting its conditions for a stand-down.
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