Iraq Update: Security Forces Pick Their Battles

An Iraqi soldier stands guard at a checkpoint in the Iraqi town of Taji, at the entrance of Baghdad, on June 13.(AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images)

Analysis

Iraqi security forces may have blunted the recent militant offensive, but the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant continues to wage its insurgency undaunted. In fact, the group and its allies, which include the Naqshbandi Army, Jamaat Ansar al-Islam and Jaish al-Muhajireen, are fanning out and striking weakly held government positions. To the northeast of Baghdad in Diyala province, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has taken the towns of Jalula and As Sadiyah, as well as a number of nearby villages around the Himreen Mountains. The group is expected to converge next on Muqdadiyah, which Iraqi security forces currently hold.

But the militants have a serious problem: As good as they may be at taking towns, they may not be able to hold them. Iraqi security forces are simply better armed, particularly with heavy weapons such as armored vehicles, artillery and air support, and as such are able to push militants back from their positions. However, the Iraqi military does not have enough capable and dependable units to push back the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant along its entire front. The group is highly mobile and widely dispersed, forcing the army to make strategic decisions over which locations it should clear and which locations are important enough to deploy soldiers to hold. Baghdad, as well as areas with critical energy infrastructure, will receive the most immediate attention.

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One way the Iraqi army can overcome its numerical deficiencies is by coordinating its efforts with the Shiite militias currently mobilized under what appears to be the aid and advice of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. But this has its drawbacks. Though the Shiite militias and the Quds Force will bring in some much-needed manpower, they will validate Sunni concerns that the conflict is a sectarian one, perhaps driving them to unite against the Shiite government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In the meantime, government forces are withdrawing from Anbar province to face the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in the north. Jabhat al-Nusra, the official al Qaeda faction in Syria, has taken advantage of the situation by reportedly mounting cross-border raids from Syria, capturing Iraqi border checkpoints and their associated equipment and vehicles. With the Syrian army already largely withdrawn from the Iraqi border and the Iraqi army otherwise preoccupied, the Syria-Iraq border effectively exists in name only.

In northern Iraq, peshmerga forces must be watched closely; the Kurds can play a decisive role in the ongoing conflict. However, any peshmerga moves outside of Kirkuk and in Ninawa province will be politically sensitive and will affect the balance with the central government. In any case, it is unclear whether al-Maliki is even willing to coordinate with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The Kurds are going to lock down Kirkuk and keep a buffer for the Kurdistan Regional Government, but they are not going to engage the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant deep in Sunni territory. They cannot extend themselves too far, and they are fine with seeing al-Maliki on the defensive so long as they can insulate the Kurdish zone. The peshmerga is in control of most of the contested areas, including most of Kirkuk governorate and its three oil formations, as well as territory north and east of Mosul, Tal Afar, Taza and Tuz Khurmatu. It is in Arbil's interest to focus on holding these territories. The Kurds know they will eventually face resistance from the militants in these contested areas, and so they are already preparing for it.

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif

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