Ukraine: Military Advances to Divide Rebel Strongholds

A resident of Lysychansk, a city in eastern Ukraine, crosses the street past Ukrainian military armored personnel carriers July 27, 2014.(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Ukrainian forces have made significant progress toward their goal of isolating the separatist-controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. After a week of fighting, the military regained control of Debaltseve, a strategic town at the junction of the main E40 and E50 highways. It also now controls Shakhtarsk and is making gains in Torez, located east of Donetsk, and Lutuhyne, a town to the southwest of Luhansk. This puts Kiev's forces in control of much of the territory between Donetsk and Luhansk, allowing them to prevent the movement of arms and personnel between the two militant strongholds.

Analysis

Despite its recent successes, Kiev continues to face challenges in its attempts to suppress the pro-Russia separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. The government has recently ramped up its military efforts, moving troops into urban areas and contributing to the corresponding rise in civilian deaths. However, fighting in the small city of Horlivka has drastically slowed Kiev's advance, heralding the difficulties troops will encounter when they fully enter Donetsk and Luhansk to engage in urban combat against concentrated militant forces. Moreover, in spite of their progress in counterterrorism operations, some Ukrainian units have shown signs of continued low morale. Over the weekend, some 40 Ukrainian servicemen crossed the border and defected to Russia. Russia's direct support for separatist forces will make urban fighting in Donetsk costly, and as Kiev's troops move eastward toward Luhansk, their proximity to the border will put them within the reach of direct Russian strikes.

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Ukrainian forces have yet to surround Luhansk or secure the nearby Russian border, and Russian arms and supplies continue to flow into the area. Images released July 27 by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence seem to show artillery strikes made during the past week from Russia's Rostov region into Ukrainian territory. The release followed reports that the United States was considering plans to provide Ukraine's military with real-time intelligence on the movement of surface-to-air missiles provided to militants by Russia. Even with that kind of intelligence support, the Ukrainian military would not be able to strike time-sensitive targets effectively, but the announcement serves as a warning to Russia that the United States is closely monitoring its moves on the ground.

The United States has increased its allegations over the past week that Russia has been allowing or carrying out strikes on Ukrainian territory from inside Russian territory. The Pentagon and the State Department publicly condemned Russia for allowing the strikes to happen, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry directly asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to stop the flow of heavy weapons into Ukraine. The United States continues to publicize evidence of Russian support for the rebels in an attempt to pressure European governments to adopt further sanctions that would have a direct impact on the Russian economy. The European Union is scheduled to decide whether to implement the next phase of sanctions this week.

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