Analysis: Minsk Ceasefire

Briefing

The main points of the ceasefire agreed upon in Minsk by leaders from Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia are as follows:

1.- A total ceasefire to begin on February 15, 2015.
2.- A withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides, 50 km – 140 km from the frontline depending on the weapon type.
3.- Day-one monitoring of the ceasefire terms by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
4.- A full pardon and amnesty for combatants held on both sides.
5.- The launching of a dialogue on self-rule in the rebel-held east.
6.- Restoration of social and economic interactions with war-torn areas.
7.- Full withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign troops from eastern Ukraine.
8.- The launching of a process of constitutional reform in Ukraine, to be completed by the end of 2015.
9.- Kiev to regain control of state borders and international border with Russia.

Outlook

German Chancellor Angela Merkel characterized the ceasefire agreement as a “glimmer of hope” upon return to Germany – an apt description given reports of intensified fighting for Debaltseve and new movements of Russian armor into the east after the accord was signed.

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