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 Here are the key geopolitical developments for 2024:


## Oceans take geostrategic prominence

The geopolitics of the oceans will feature more prominently in 2024. 90% of global goods trade is shipped via maritime routes, but many of the world's busiest maritime transit corridors are at risk of geopolitical disruption. Deep-sea mining is forecast to account for at least one-third of the supply of critical minerals necessary for the energy transition[1].


## Countries race to innovate on and regulate AI

Governments will race to regulate AI to reduce potential sociopolitical risks, while simultaneously trying to foster domestic AI innovation to compete geopolitically. AI will be a central dynamic in US-China relations in 2024[1].


## Elections everywhere all at once

Voters will go to the polls in markets accounting for about 54% of the global population and nearly 60% of global GDP in 2024, generating regulatory and policy uncertainty. The US and EU elections may be the most consequential in decades[1].


## De-risking global supply chains

Governments are reengaging in industrial policy to promote greater domestic production of critical products. Geopolitical competition is being embedded with these economic policies[1].


## Sustained energy security concerns

Energy security concerns spell bad news for the global economy and increase fiscal, social and political challenges for governments. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose a significant geopolitical risk in 2024[3].


## Cyberattacks as a tool of statecraft

Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and severe, with the human and financial impact rising in line with the increasing digitization of critical infrastructure[3].


Citations:

[1] https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/geostrategy/2024-geostrategic-outlook

[2] https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com

[3] https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/market-insights/geopolitical-risk

[4] https://www.eiu.com/n/global-themes/geopolitics-hub/

[5] https://www.ft.com/geopolitics

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