The Ally in the East: Japan’s Present and Future Role in Ukraine
The international response to the Russo-Ukrainian War has been nothing short of remarkable. Not merely for how much it consumed international attention, but also for how widespread the international aid for Ukraine has been. Not only has it drawn the attention of major international powers, such as China and the United States, but also the attention of nations who rarely interact or intervene on the international stage. Countries such as Denmark, Estonia and Finland have all donated significantly to the Ukrainian cause. Kyiv has been able to draw from an immense supply of Western support for its struggle. Often understated, however, is the support from Ukraine’s greatest ally in the east: Japan.
Japan’s contribution amid the Ukraine war has been rather remarkable. According to a 2023 report from the Kiel Institute, it ranks fourth globally in total allocations, having given 7.269 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. It ranks third specifically in humanitarian allocations, and second in financial allocations. Being the fourth-biggest economy in the world, Tokyo hasn’t hesitated in using its fiscal might to back Ukraine.
The one caveat to this support is military aid. Based on the Kiel Institute again, Japan ranks 27th globally for military allocations in euros. By percentage of GDP, that drops to 31st, spending a scant .001% of GDP on military aid to Kyiv. By contrast, Germany has given .256%, Finland .733%, and Estonia an incredible 1.469%.
Outside of strict monetary policy, the substance of Japan’s aid has also been different. While other countries have sent artillery shells, fighter jets, Japan’s shipments have been limited to supplies like bulletproof vests, tents and cameras. While Germany and the United States were sending top-of-the-line tanks to Ukraine in 2023, Japan’s comparative deliveries were 100 unarmed tactical vehicles such as half-ton trucks, which came alongside significant supplies of food rations.
Japan’s support may, therefore, seem to pale in comparison to other nations. It has certainly been different, focusing almost entirely on non-military aid. However, it is important to keep in mind the historical context regarding Japanese militarism, or the lack thereof.
As it was rebuilt from the ashes (and radiation) of the war, the Japanese state had to be literally rebuilt from the ground up. As a reaction to the hyper-militarization of Imperial Japan, a new cornerstone was laid in that foundation: pacifism. Adopted in 1947, the Japanese Constitution explicitly states that “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” Japanese spending has remained low, hovering at or below one percent, and its forces have rarely been sent outside of Japan. When a small contingent was sent overseas to Iraq in 2004, it was a small force limited to humanitarian efforts alone. Japan has also had some of the strictest laws regarding arms-exports, which have only recently been loosened.
Due to this legacy of pacifism, Japanese arms-exports are viewed in a far different context. A delivery of 100 unarmed vehicles would seem tame to Britain or France. However, in Japan, it is remarkable that a truck capable of equipping a machine gun has been sent at all. Tokyo has also at times been cunning in its export strategy, such as sending patriot missiles and 155mm artillery shells to the United States, which in turn allows more to be sent to Ukraine by Washington.
The unique circumstances of the Ukraine war have in many ways helped Japan. Whereas Japan was criticized in 1991 for not sending troops to liberate Kuwait, and was pressured into sending troops 13 years later, there is no similar pressure in Ukraine. All Western countries have been using ‘dollar-diplomacy’ to help Kyiv. The same strategy lambasted by James Baker III three decades earlier is now the international standard for backing Ukraine; one Japan can use in place of military force.
Additionally, the Japanese public has largely been in favor of helping Ukraine. In 2022, polls showed that 86% of respondents supported Japanese sanctions on Russia, with 91% supporting the government in accepting war refugees. Those are high figures for a population traditionally seen as being opposed to immigration. Earlier this year, another poll showed that 93% of respondents saw Russia negatively for the war, and public support for Ukraine has remained between 75-80%. That’s a big contrast to Japan’s expedition in Iraq, where aid was always controversial, and public opinion eventually turned against Tokyo’s role.
In short, Japan has been extremely proactive in its support for Ukraine. It has spent large amounts of money supporting the war effort, and considering Japan’s historical legacy of pacifism and non-interventionism, has been extremely forward with revolutionary amounts of military aid being given. All of this support has been unparalleled in Japanese postwar history. Going forward, however, Japan’s role may become even more important.
The Ukraine war has caused mass destruction unseen in Europe since the Second World War. Six million Ukrainians live without clean drinking water, blackouts have become commonplace, and a third of the population goes hungry. A report from February of this year estimated the cost of rebuilding Ukraine to be around $486 billion. In the six months since, that number has doubtlessly risen, and it will rise further with each day of war.
Kyiv’s war effort has been unimaginably difficult, with an equally difficult process of reconstruction in the future. It will undeniably require international support, given Ukraine’s dire financial circumstances. Japan may be exactly what Ukraine needs for that process.
The rebuilding process is going to necessitate humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts, both of which Japan has excelled at. In 2003, Japan announced a financial package of around five billion US dollars, $1.6 billion of which being grants. When stationed in Iraq, Japanese forces provided medical support, repaired roads and water filtration plants, and improved schools. Even a decade after leaving Iraq, Japan was still providing millions of dollars to the UN World Food Program and over $800,000 for the World Health Organization, all to aid Iraq’s recovery. Japan could do exactly the same for Ukraine in order to facilitate its postwar recovery.
Japan’s role isn’t guaranteed. Its current government is becoming increasingly unpopular after a fundraising scandal last year and other issues. Public support for foreign spending could always fall. However, Japan has proven capable of, and committed to, international aid. Just as it has provided Ukraine in its time of war, it could do the same for Ukraine in a future time of peace, whenever and however it shall arrive.
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