ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

This is the november edition of the Directory

In the struggle to secure energy resources, the great powers consider all states to be fair game. Indeed, this is precisely what characterizes American foreign policy in the modern era. When it comes to economic and geopolitical interests, Washington seldom differentiates between democratic leaders and despots, especially when those interests involve oil. Currently, the stakes are high in the rush to secure oil resources and nowhere is this more evident than in the Sino-American rivalry in Africa. Both states are competing to secure their share of oil supplies in order to quench their addiction to the coveted ‘black gold.’ One of Washington’s primary  energy security  concerns has been to diversify its sources of foreign oil. During the 1970s oil crisis, the United States imported one-third of its petroleum. Now, it imports approximately 11.4 million barrels per day of petroleum (which includes crude oil and petroleum products), amounting to 45 percent of all petroleum consumed in Am

Newly independent, oil-rich South Sudan holds some 75% of Sudan’s total oil resources, but it may be too early to risk things here. Ask  Total  (NYSE: TOT). The government just split up one of the French oil major’s massive concession blocks to give the bulk of it away to other companies. According to a  Reuters  report on Wednesday, Total’s largely unexplored Block B has been split into three parts, one of which Total will be allowed to keep, while the other two may go to US major  ExxonMobil  (NYSE: XOM) and Kuwait’s Kufpec. (Though the government says they’ll be put up for tender). It’s a pretty sour message for potential investors. Here’s what’s happening: South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in July 2011. Total’s Block B concession had been negotiated under a united Sudan. Officials in Juba (the capital of South Sudan) believe that their newly won independence gives them the right to renegotiate a concession that was granted under the old Sudan. The concession bloc

By George Friedman President Barack Obama has won re-election . However, in addition to all of the constraints on him that I discussed last week, he won the election with almost half the people voting against him. His win in the Electoral College was substantial -- and that's the win that really matters -- but the popular vote determines how he governs, and he will govern with one more constraint added to the others. The question is whether this weakens him or provides an opportunity. That is not determined by his policies but by the strategic situation, which, in my view, gives the United States some much-needed breathing room. The Structure of the International System At the moment, the international system is built on three pillars:  the United States, Europe and China . Europe, if it were united, would be very roughly the same size as the United States in terms of economy, population and potential military power. China is about a third the size of the other two econo

By Scott Stewart Vice President of Analysis Enrique Pena Nieto will be sworn in as Mexico's next president Dec. 1. He will take office at a very interesting point in Mexican history. Mexico is experiencing an economic upturn that may become even more pronounced if Pena Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party administration is able to work with its rivals in the National Action Party to enact  needed reforms to Mexico's labor, financial and energy laws . Another arrestor to further expanding Mexico's economy has been the  ongoing cartel violence in Mexico  and the dampening effect it has had on outside investment and tourism. Pena Nieto realizes that Mexico's economy would be doing even better were it not for the chilling effect of the violence. During his campaign, he pledged to cut Mexico's murder rate in half by the end of his six-year term, to increase the number of federal police officers and to create a new gendarmerie to use in place of military

The 10-year natural gas deal signed Nov. 20 between Germany's Wintershall and Norway's Statoil highlights a fundamental change in the way traditional natural gas exporters to Europe price their product. The contract, which will account for 6 percent of Germany's annual consumption, is based on spot-market prices rather than on oil-indexation like previous contracts, and it has two significant implications. First, the size and duration of the deal suggests that Germany will continue to prefer long-term contracts from its two largest suppliers, Norway and Russia, the latter of which signed a similar agreement with Germany's E.On earlier in 2012. Second, the move away from oil-indexation confirms a trend of pricing less subject to the volatility of crude oil prices.  Europe is still far from having a fully liberalized natural gas market, and European consumers will continue to prefer long-term contracts to ensure a stable supply. But changes in the European natural gas

Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more. Predicting the Middle East’s political future has always been more of a gamble than an exact science. The region’s prevailing political precariousness is what makes it so impossible to sensibly forecast future developments. However, despite all the instability -- or perhaps in spite of all the instability it is safe to make the following call: more violence can be predicted in the coming 12 months. Additionally, it is safe to say that there will also be more changes in the coming year. And that can be a cause of conflict. Change, as a rule, frightens most people, and today there are good reasons to be fearful considering the situation in the Levant – in Lebanon, Syria, Israel and Gaza. It could hardly get any worse. Could it?