ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Summary The United States continues to face obstacles in its policy of "pivoting" toward the Asia-Pacific. On Oct. 2, the White House canceled President Barack Obama's visit to Malaysia and the Philippines, slated to take place Oct. 11-12, citing "logistical" difficulties as a result of the partial federal government shutdown. Secretary of State John Kerry, Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker and U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman will travel in his stead, while Obama himself will not travel to these countries until a later unspecified date. So far, Obama is still expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders' meeting and East Asia Summit in Brunei from October 7-10, where heads of government will meet. But further cancellations cannot be ruled out. Analysis The cancellation points to Washington's continued trouble finding the capacity to maintain i

Analysis  For centuries, geography and an abundance of domestic resources limited China's need to seek material inputs and project power far beyond its borders. Over the past two decades, however, this dynamic began to break down as China's demand for energy and raw materials outstripped its existing production capacity. As a result, Chinese manufacturers, real estate developers and other businesses found themselves sourcing an increasing share of their energy supplies from overseas, dramatically expanding the Chinese economy's exposure to political and economic forces far beyond the government's control. China has never been more vulnerable -- economically, socially and politically -- to supply disruptions overseas. At the same time, China's supply-demand imbalance has compelled radical changes in the geography and logistics of domestic Chinese resource industries. Most notable has been the rapid migration of energy and raw materials production bases from China&

At the beginning of the year, we outlined how U.S. foreign policy increasingly would be defined by its restraint as the United States attempts to reorient its priorities away from the Middle East. At the same time, we noted that the Syrian chemical weapons issue would be the wild card that would challenge this policy of restraint and compel the United States to cobble together a coalition in haste. That forecast materialized in the third quarter, with the United States trying -- and failing -- to build a coalition for an intervention that it was not particularly enthused about. Both Iran and Russia were quick to seize on the opportunity, and out of the diplomatic fog emerged two aggressive negotiating tracks that will feature prominently in the final months of 2013. Related Links Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2013 Stratfor's Second Quarter Forecast 2013 Stratfor's Third Quarter Forecast 2013 While both Iran and the United States are serious about pursuing a dialogue, the trans

The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan reversed the Taliban's takeover in many parts of the country. The resulting geographic shift in support for militant groups led to a degradation of Central Asian militants' capabilities. The Taliban's series of successes ended when the United States invaded Afghanistan following the Sept. 11 attacks by al Qaeda. The U.S. invasion, facilitated by the support of the Northern Alliance and aided by Russia, was able to displace the Taliban and drive the movement from all major cities and towns within a few short months. The invasion included U.S. security support to the Central Asian states that, with help from Moscow, made their territory available for logistical and support bases for U.S. and subsequently NATO operations into Afghanistan. This allowed the Central Asian governments and security forces in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to destroy many militant cells from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other groups, such as H

Analysis The document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week. EUROPE Oct. 1: Cyprus celebrates its independence day. Oct. 1: In Hungary, the Financial Supervisory Authority will be merged into the Hungarian Central Bank. Oct. 1-7: An International Monetary Fund delegation will visit Serbia to assess the government's policies for 2014. Oct. 2: The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet in Paris. Oct. 3: Officials from Moldova, Transdniestria, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the European Union, Russia, the United States and Ukraine are expected to meet in Brussels for a further round of negotiations over the conflict regarding Transdniestria's status. FORMER SOVIET UNION Oct. 1: The next meeting of the EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Committee is expected to be held in Baku