ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Robert D. Kaplan and Michael Nayebi-Oskoui India could offer the world a signal electoral drama next spring, with geopolitical repercussions for the whole Eurasian rimland. Narendra Modi, the charismatic chief minister of Gujarat in northwestern India, will likely run for prime minister against Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of the political forefather of India's modern republic, Jawaharlal Nehru. Modi, though considerably older than Gandhi, represents an efficient, new style politics that is nationalistic and unapologetically abrasive, and thus comfortable with civilizational tension. The youthful Gandhi, through his name, embodies an old-style politics that, while portrayed as corrupt and complacent, is also universalist. Modi has many enemies yet promises to shake things up in a country with vast potential but stuck in the economic and institutional doldrums. Gandhi, who has far less experience and is half-Italian, is actually the less-disruptive, more conservative choice.

Summary Ongoing unrest in the coastal regions of India's Andhra Pradesh state exemplifies the threat local politics pose to India's national strategic interests. Protesters upset with the prospect of Telanganan statehood, including local utility employees, have shut off power and other services to some parts of Andhra Pradesh, much to the detriment of the city of Hyderabad, one of India's most vibrant local economies and a center of the country's information technology sector. The threats to Hyderabad and southern India's power grid, as well as to Chennai's industrial sector, already have prompted New Delhi to begin negotiations with protest leaders. But with India's contentious national elections only eight months away, supporters on both sides of the Telanganan separatism issue will continue to leverage Hyderabad's significance to the Indian economy in their attempts to gain concessions from the government. Analysis India's ruling Congre

Summary With a key decision on Ukraine's orientation toward Europe approaching, the Russian government continues to apply pressure on Kiev. Unnamed sources within Gazprom said Oct. 9 that the Russian energy giant would supply natural gas at a discounted rate to Ostchem Holding, a firm run by influential Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Under the deal, Ostchem would purchase 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas for storage purposes, discounted at 30-36 percent, or to around $260 per thousand cubic meters. Key to the announcement is the exclusion of Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz, which has been embroiled in a yearslong dispute with Gazprom over energy supplies and pricing . Neither Gazprom nor Ostchem has confirmed the deal, but if true, it would give a significant boost to the controversial Firtash, who has previously challenged the Ukrainian government in favor of Russian interests. Analysis Firtash was previously the chairman of RosUkrEnergo, an intermediary that oversa

Analysis In reaching the Safira defense factories in northwestern Syria, Syrian regime forces have not only broken the rebel encirclement of Aleppo but have also enabled loyalist forces to better secure one of the country's most threatened chemical weapons sites. The battle for Aleppo figures prominently in the Syrian civil war. Beyond the vicious attrition suffered in urban fighting within the city, both regime and rebel forces have long sought to gain an advantage in the battle by securing and severing supply lines to the city . The rebels had completely isolated the bulk of regime forces in Aleppo province on Aug. 26, when they seized the important town of Khanasser, located on the secondary road from Hama to Aleppo. With the main M4/M5 road already cut by rebel forces, the secondary road through Khanasser was the sole remaining logistical lifeline for regime forces in the province. The Syrian air force could still deliver supplies by air , but the level of supp

Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). Central Asia and Afghanistan also have important demographic ties. Because of the geography of the border areas, interaction and movement between the peoples of Central Asia and Afghanistan has historically been difficult to stop. Furthermore, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 created direct interaction between the Soviet Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmen and their ethnic cohorts in Afghanistan, with many of the former participating in Soviet military operations (in large part because of their ethno-linguistic ties). The Soviet Central Asians' exposure to their more tribal and religious Afghan counterparts c

Summary The two U.S. special operations raids to capture high-value targets in Libya and Somalia both occurred on Oct. 5 but do not seem to have been directly connected. The operations were most likely the consequences of distinct intelligence efforts, and their timing so close together was probably coincidental. Still, the operations illustrate that while the United States is avoiding larger and longer engagements, the use of limited special operations with smaller dispersed footprints and specific targets continues. Analysis The target of the operation in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, was Nazih Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai, also known as Abu Anas al-Libi. He has been sought by the United States for his involvement in the 1998 embassy attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam and was one of the original names on the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorists list when it was created in October 2001. Apart from his role in the embassy attacks, al-Libi had been tied to the al Qaeda core since its relocat

The European Union's debate over illegal immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers became much more sensitive after a ship holding some 500 immigrants sank last week near the Italian island of Lampedusa. Some 200 people drowned and as many as 150 are still missing. The incident prompted the Italian government to demand a renegotiation of EU policies on the issue, which home affairs ministers from member states will discuss during a meeting Oct. 8. While immigration will remain central to the EU agenda for some time, little progress will be made because EU members have neither the will nor the ability to enact meaningful reform. Europe's geographic position and high standards of living make it an attractive destination for African, Middle Eastern and Eastern European immigrants. According to the European Council of Refugees and Exiles, around 1.5 million of the world's 16 million recognized refugees currently live legally in Europe. Several million more immigrants live illega

Summary Editor's Note: A recent border dispute in the Fergana Valley, the core of Central Asia, highlights the growing tensions in the strategic and contested region. Kyrgyz and Uzbek border patrol units were removed from the Ungar-Too area in Kyrgyzstan's Jalal-Abad region Oct. 2, after a two-week standoff over an alleged Uzbek border incursion into the area. Such incursions, coupled with ethnic tensions and sporadic violence, have become increasingly common in the Fergana Valley region, which is split between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The valley has long been the population and agricultural heartland of Central Asia. It has also been one of the most unstable areas in the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union due to several factors, including diverse and interspersed populations, complex borders, dwindling resources and religious extremism. Analysis The Fergana Valley is located in Central Asia's southeast corner and is enclosed by the Tian S