ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Editor's Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, this week's Naval Update is not as current as usual. The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Nimitz CSG with CVW 11 embarked is conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR. The USS Harry S Truman CSG

Summary Afghanistan's 2014 presidential election may be the most critical event the country will have experienced since the United States toppled the Taliban and fabricated the current republic in 2001. The contest will determine who will succeed President Hamid Karzai , a name that has become synonymous with post-9/11 Afghanistan . And though more than two dozen former militia commanders, political figures and technocrats have declared their candidacy, only a few contenders are actually in position to win. Ultimately, the winner will have to have earned the backing of Karzai himself. Analysis Most discussions over elections tend to focus on demographics, and in Afghanistan, discussions over demographics tend to focus on the country's fractious ethnic landscape. But no single group has a majority -- Pashtuns represent 42 percent of the population, Tajiks 27 percent, Hazaras 10 percent and Uzbeks 9 percent -- and much more important, all the groups are divided internally, s

Summary The temporary abduction of Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan is the latest manifestation of the country's deteriorating security environment and the central government's inability to control the hundreds of thousands of armed revolutionaries, militiamen and Islamist militants in the country. But his kidnapping, which was reportedly conducted by government-aligned militia forces, is more a symptom of intra-governmental political competition than it is of unchecked violence and lawlessness. Analysis The Libyan government has confirmed that armed men, who are suspected revolutionaries, removed Zeidan from his Tripoli residence and held him against his will for several hours before releasing him unharmed Oct. 10. The prime minister was not injured in the incident and was reportedly held inside the Interior Ministry's offices. There are conflicting reports that his abduction might have been an attempted arrest. In any case, the incident represents the second serious c

By Robert D. Kaplan and Michael Nayebi-Oskoui India could offer the world a signal electoral drama next spring, with geopolitical repercussions for the whole Eurasian rimland. Narendra Modi, the charismatic chief minister of Gujarat in northwestern India, will likely run for prime minister against Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of the political forefather of India's modern republic, Jawaharlal Nehru. Modi, though considerably older than Gandhi, represents an efficient, new style politics that is nationalistic and unapologetically abrasive, and thus comfortable with civilizational tension. The youthful Gandhi, through his name, embodies an old-style politics that, while portrayed as corrupt and complacent, is also universalist. Modi has many enemies yet promises to shake things up in a country with vast potential but stuck in the economic and institutional doldrums. Gandhi, who has far less experience and is half-Italian, is actually the less-disruptive, more conservative choice.

Summary Ongoing unrest in the coastal regions of India's Andhra Pradesh state exemplifies the threat local politics pose to India's national strategic interests. Protesters upset with the prospect of Telanganan statehood, including local utility employees, have shut off power and other services to some parts of Andhra Pradesh, much to the detriment of the city of Hyderabad, one of India's most vibrant local economies and a center of the country's information technology sector. The threats to Hyderabad and southern India's power grid, as well as to Chennai's industrial sector, already have prompted New Delhi to begin negotiations with protest leaders. But with India's contentious national elections only eight months away, supporters on both sides of the Telanganan separatism issue will continue to leverage Hyderabad's significance to the Indian economy in their attempts to gain concessions from the government. Analysis India's ruling Congre

Summary With a key decision on Ukraine's orientation toward Europe approaching, the Russian government continues to apply pressure on Kiev. Unnamed sources within Gazprom said Oct. 9 that the Russian energy giant would supply natural gas at a discounted rate to Ostchem Holding, a firm run by influential Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Under the deal, Ostchem would purchase 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas for storage purposes, discounted at 30-36 percent, or to around $260 per thousand cubic meters. Key to the announcement is the exclusion of Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz, which has been embroiled in a yearslong dispute with Gazprom over energy supplies and pricing . Neither Gazprom nor Ostchem has confirmed the deal, but if true, it would give a significant boost to the controversial Firtash, who has previously challenged the Ukrainian government in favor of Russian interests. Analysis Firtash was previously the chairman of RosUkrEnergo, an intermediary that oversa

Analysis In reaching the Safira defense factories in northwestern Syria, Syrian regime forces have not only broken the rebel encirclement of Aleppo but have also enabled loyalist forces to better secure one of the country's most threatened chemical weapons sites. The battle for Aleppo figures prominently in the Syrian civil war. Beyond the vicious attrition suffered in urban fighting within the city, both regime and rebel forces have long sought to gain an advantage in the battle by securing and severing supply lines to the city . The rebels had completely isolated the bulk of regime forces in Aleppo province on Aug. 26, when they seized the important town of Khanasser, located on the secondary road from Hama to Aleppo. With the main M4/M5 road already cut by rebel forces, the secondary road through Khanasser was the sole remaining logistical lifeline for regime forces in the province. The Syrian air force could still deliver supplies by air , but the level of supp

Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). Central Asia and Afghanistan also have important demographic ties. Because of the geography of the border areas, interaction and movement between the peoples of Central Asia and Afghanistan has historically been difficult to stop. Furthermore, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 created direct interaction between the Soviet Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmen and their ethnic cohorts in Afghanistan, with many of the former participating in Soviet military operations (in large part because of their ethno-linguistic ties). The Soviet Central Asians' exposure to their more tribal and religious Afghan counterparts c