ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Summary Supermajors continue to sell onshore investments that are in sensitive areas in the Niger Delta, but a wider sell-off of other Nigerian hydrocarbon assets is unlikely. The Financial Times reported that a consortium led by Royal Dutch/Shell has put four blocks in the eastern Niger Delta region on sale as well as the Nembe Creek Trunkline pipeline, which connects those blocks to the Bonny export terminal. The report follows an internal review by Shell of its eastern Niger Delta assets, which account for about a third of Shell's energy assets in Nigeria, as a result of increased crude theft and pipeline damage in the region. Subsequently, on Oct. 10, Shell had to shut down the Trans-Niger Pipeline due to leaks caused by theft and pipeline damage for the third time in four months, highlighting the severity of disruptions in the region. Onshore production problems -- due to both technical factors and militancy -- will remain as the Niger Delta continues to lose significanc...

Summary China's growing dependence on foreign energy markets could force it to rethink its historical policy of nonintervention, at least in major energy producing regions. The U.S. Energy Information Agency released data Oct. 9 showing that China had officially passed the United States as the world's largest importer of oil. While the precise moment that the United States passed the torch to China is insignificant, the data highlights a growing trend that will continue over the next decade: The United States is becoming less of a global oil importer while China's appetite for oil imports is rising. Analysis Underlying the Chinese economic miracle has been the rapid growth in China's demand for all forms of energy. China is by far the world's largest coal consumer and is well on its way to passing the United States as the world's largest oil consumer. China's oil consumption rose from 2.3 million barrels per day in 1990 to 4.7 million barrels per day in 200...

Editor's Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, this week's Naval Update is not as current as usual. The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Nimitz CSG with CVW 11 embarked is conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR. The USS Harry S Truman CSG...

Summary Afghanistan's 2014 presidential election may be the most critical event the country will have experienced since the United States toppled the Taliban and fabricated the current republic in 2001. The contest will determine who will succeed President Hamid Karzai , a name that has become synonymous with post-9/11 Afghanistan . And though more than two dozen former militia commanders, political figures and technocrats have declared their candidacy, only a few contenders are actually in position to win. Ultimately, the winner will have to have earned the backing of Karzai himself. Analysis Most discussions over elections tend to focus on demographics, and in Afghanistan, discussions over demographics tend to focus on the country's fractious ethnic landscape. But no single group has a majority -- Pashtuns represent 42 percent of the population, Tajiks 27 percent, Hazaras 10 percent and Uzbeks 9 percent -- and much more important, all the groups are divided internally, s...

Summary The temporary abduction of Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan is the latest manifestation of the country's deteriorating security environment and the central government's inability to control the hundreds of thousands of armed revolutionaries, militiamen and Islamist militants in the country. But his kidnapping, which was reportedly conducted by government-aligned militia forces, is more a symptom of intra-governmental political competition than it is of unchecked violence and lawlessness. Analysis The Libyan government has confirmed that armed men, who are suspected revolutionaries, removed Zeidan from his Tripoli residence and held him against his will for several hours before releasing him unharmed Oct. 10. The prime minister was not injured in the incident and was reportedly held inside the Interior Ministry's offices. There are conflicting reports that his abduction might have been an attempted arrest. In any case, the incident represents the second serious c...

By Robert D. Kaplan and Michael Nayebi-Oskoui India could offer the world a signal electoral drama next spring, with geopolitical repercussions for the whole Eurasian rimland. Narendra Modi, the charismatic chief minister of Gujarat in northwestern India, will likely run for prime minister against Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of the political forefather of India's modern republic, Jawaharlal Nehru. Modi, though considerably older than Gandhi, represents an efficient, new style politics that is nationalistic and unapologetically abrasive, and thus comfortable with civilizational tension. The youthful Gandhi, through his name, embodies an old-style politics that, while portrayed as corrupt and complacent, is also universalist. Modi has many enemies yet promises to shake things up in a country with vast potential but stuck in the economic and institutional doldrums. Gandhi, who has far less experience and is half-Italian, is actually the less-disruptive, more conservative choice. ...

Summary Ongoing unrest in the coastal regions of India's Andhra Pradesh state exemplifies the threat local politics pose to India's national strategic interests. Protesters upset with the prospect of Telanganan statehood, including local utility employees, have shut off power and other services to some parts of Andhra Pradesh, much to the detriment of the city of Hyderabad, one of India's most vibrant local economies and a center of the country's information technology sector. The threats to Hyderabad and southern India's power grid, as well as to Chennai's industrial sector, already have prompted New Delhi to begin negotiations with protest leaders. But with India's contentious national elections only eight months away, supporters on both sides of the Telanganan separatism issue will continue to leverage Hyderabad's significance to the Indian economy in their attempts to gain concessions from the government. Analysis India's ruling Congre...

Summary With a key decision on Ukraine's orientation toward Europe approaching, the Russian government continues to apply pressure on Kiev. Unnamed sources within Gazprom said Oct. 9 that the Russian energy giant would supply natural gas at a discounted rate to Ostchem Holding, a firm run by influential Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Under the deal, Ostchem would purchase 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas for storage purposes, discounted at 30-36 percent, or to around $260 per thousand cubic meters. Key to the announcement is the exclusion of Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz, which has been embroiled in a yearslong dispute with Gazprom over energy supplies and pricing . Neither Gazprom nor Ostchem has confirmed the deal, but if true, it would give a significant boost to the controversial Firtash, who has previously challenged the Ukrainian government in favor of Russian interests. Analysis Firtash was previously the chairman of RosUkrEnergo, an intermediary that oversa...