ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

According to government authorities, Beijing will close its four remaining coal-fired power plants before the start of 2015, replacing them with four new natural gas-fired power plants at a total investment cost of $7.8 billion. When completed, these four power plants using natural gas from Shaanxi province will have a total generating capacity of 2.7 gigawatts. In the near term, efforts to reduce coal usage will probably be limited to Beijing and a few other top-tier cities, such as Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou, where the Party is most keen to quell social discontent by improving the quality of life, in part by decreasing pollution. The rest of China's economy will almost certainly continue to rely on coal for two-thirds or more of its energy and electricity needs throughout the next decade; national coal consumption is set to rise from 3.66 billion metric tons in 2012 to well over 4 billion metric tons in the next few years, despite the government's intent to cap consu

Summary Ireland and Portugal, two recipients of bailouts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, will present their 2014 budgets on Oct. 15. While the new budgets probably will include spending cuts and tax hikes, austerity measures are likely to be less harsh than in previous years. Dublin and Lisbon are attempting to balance social stability against fiscal consolidation efforts as they prepare to return to financial markets in early and late 2014, respectively. Elsewhere in the European Union, debates over national budgets for 2014 have been particularly contentious in the Netherlands and Italy, two countries with fragile ruling coalitions. France, meanwhile, is looking for a balance between demands at home and abroad. Analysis On Oct. 8, the European Commission accepted Ireland's plan to implement tax and spending increases worth 2.5 billion euros ($3.39 billion), instead of the 3.1 billion euros originally agreed upon with the troika (the commission, the Eu

Summary Turkey's Middle East policy under the ruling Justice and Development Party has broadly focused on two ambitious objectives: deepening influence in the Arab world through the empowerment of moderate Sunni Islamist forces and a visibly antagonistic relationship with Israel, and using political and economic appeasement to contain Kurdish separatism. These policies, closely linked with the leadership of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, may be expiring. Turkey simply lacks the internal political coherence and the regional influence to stick to foreign policy positions that collectively run against U.S. and Iranian interests. Turkey will be driven toward a more moderate foreign policy by a number of factors, including a developing U.S.-Iranian dialogue, Washington's willingness -- at least temporarily -- to work with Russia in the Middle East, the proliferation of battle-hardened jihadists in Turkey's immediate region and a

Summary Supermajors continue to sell onshore investments that are in sensitive areas in the Niger Delta, but a wider sell-off of other Nigerian hydrocarbon assets is unlikely. The Financial Times reported that a consortium led by Royal Dutch/Shell has put four blocks in the eastern Niger Delta region on sale as well as the Nembe Creek Trunkline pipeline, which connects those blocks to the Bonny export terminal. The report follows an internal review by Shell of its eastern Niger Delta assets, which account for about a third of Shell's energy assets in Nigeria, as a result of increased crude theft and pipeline damage in the region. Subsequently, on Oct. 10, Shell had to shut down the Trans-Niger Pipeline due to leaks caused by theft and pipeline damage for the third time in four months, highlighting the severity of disruptions in the region. Onshore production problems -- due to both technical factors and militancy -- will remain as the Niger Delta continues to lose significanc

Summary China's growing dependence on foreign energy markets could force it to rethink its historical policy of nonintervention, at least in major energy producing regions. The U.S. Energy Information Agency released data Oct. 9 showing that China had officially passed the United States as the world's largest importer of oil. While the precise moment that the United States passed the torch to China is insignificant, the data highlights a growing trend that will continue over the next decade: The United States is becoming less of a global oil importer while China's appetite for oil imports is rising. Analysis Underlying the Chinese economic miracle has been the rapid growth in China's demand for all forms of energy. China is by far the world's largest coal consumer and is well on its way to passing the United States as the world's largest oil consumer. China's oil consumption rose from 2.3 million barrels per day in 1990 to 4.7 million barrels per day in 200

Editor's Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, this week's Naval Update is not as current as usual. The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Nimitz CSG with CVW 11 embarked is conducting maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR. The USS Harry S Truman CSG

Summary Afghanistan's 2014 presidential election may be the most critical event the country will have experienced since the United States toppled the Taliban and fabricated the current republic in 2001. The contest will determine who will succeed President Hamid Karzai , a name that has become synonymous with post-9/11 Afghanistan . And though more than two dozen former militia commanders, political figures and technocrats have declared their candidacy, only a few contenders are actually in position to win. Ultimately, the winner will have to have earned the backing of Karzai himself. Analysis Most discussions over elections tend to focus on demographics, and in Afghanistan, discussions over demographics tend to focus on the country's fractious ethnic landscape. But no single group has a majority -- Pashtuns represent 42 percent of the population, Tajiks 27 percent, Hazaras 10 percent and Uzbeks 9 percent -- and much more important, all the groups are divided internally, s

Summary The temporary abduction of Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan is the latest manifestation of the country's deteriorating security environment and the central government's inability to control the hundreds of thousands of armed revolutionaries, militiamen and Islamist militants in the country. But his kidnapping, which was reportedly conducted by government-aligned militia forces, is more a symptom of intra-governmental political competition than it is of unchecked violence and lawlessness. Analysis The Libyan government has confirmed that armed men, who are suspected revolutionaries, removed Zeidan from his Tripoli residence and held him against his will for several hours before releasing him unharmed Oct. 10. The prime minister was not injured in the incident and was reportedly held inside the Interior Ministry's offices. There are conflicting reports that his abduction might have been an attempted arrest. In any case, the incident represents the second serious c