ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Nile Bowie October 16, 2013 - As Syria’s rebels refuse to take part in Geneva-2, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the primary state-backer of rebel groups now trying to escalate the Syrian conflict and topple Assad by force. When Vladimir Putin met with Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia in August, the newly appointed Intelligence Chief reportedly tried to cut a deal with Moscow by promising to buy billions in Russian arms and pledging not to challenge Russian gas sales to Europe in exchange for withdrawing support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Though later refuted by the Kremlin , the media reports suggested that Bandar told Putin to forget about any political solution to the Syrian conflict. In addition to being the main propagator of a militant anti-Shiite form of Islam that many rebel fighters subscribe to, the Saudi monarchy has become the chief financier of anti-Assad movements aimed at toppling the Syrian government and weakening its allies in Iran and Hezbollah. Russian diplom

Summary Former Warsaw Pact countries are steadily adopting NATO standards despite fiscal and industrial constraints. Romanian Defense Minister Mircea Dusa announced Oct. 10 that Romania had signed a 600 million-euro (about $815 million) contract for the purchase of retired Portuguese F-16 fighter aircraft. The F-16 aircraft will be modernized to extend their lifespan by 20 years and will steadily replace Romanian MiG-21 fighters upon their arrival in 2015. While the purchase of aging, secondhand aircraft highlights Romania's fiscal limitations, it also marks another step in the overall move toward NATO standards by ex-Warsaw Pact countries. Analysis NATO standardization is important for both new and old members of NATO for two key reasons. Operationally, NATO forces benefit from having interchangeable infrastructure and a network of supplies and logistics, from small arms ammunition to lighting systems. Utilizing the same communication and procedural doctrine means NATO members

By Barton Gellman and Ashkan Soltani - - The National Security Agency is harvesting hundreds of millions of contact lists from personal e-mail and instant messaging accounts around the world, many of them belonging to Americans, according to senior intelligence officials and top-secret documents provided by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden . The collection program, which has not been disclosed before, intercepts e-mail address books and “buddy lists” from instant messaging services as they move across global data links. Online services often transmit those contacts when a user logs on, composes a message, or synchronizes a computer or mobile device with information stored on remote servers. Rather than targeting individual users, the NSA is gathering contact lists in large numbers that amount to a sizable fraction of the world’s e-mail and instant messaging accounts. Analysis of that data enables the agency to search for hidden connections and to map relationships within a much

Unnamed sources within Gazprom said Oct. 9 that the Russian energy giant would supply natural gas at a discounted rate to Ostchem Holding , a firm run by influential Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Key to the announcement is the exclusion of Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz, which has been embroiled in a yearslong dispute with Gazprom over energy supplies and pricing . The pricing dispute, which began as a result of a contract signed by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko viewed as unfavorable to Ukraine , has remained a dominant feature of Ukrainian-Russian relations for years. Russia has said it would provide Naftogaz with lower prices only if Ukraine joins Russia's Customs Union and if Russia can increase its stakes in Ukraine's energy industry, preferably in a merger between Naftogaz and Gazprom. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich has so far refused, knowing that such outcomes would significantly undermine the sovereignty of the country in the

Former Liberian President Charles Taylor was transferred to prison in the United Kingdom on Tuesday to serve out the remainder of his 50-year sentence. Taylor had been in custody at The Hague in the Netherlands since his 2012 conviction at the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in Sierra Leone's civil war -- itself an extension of Liberia's civil war -- during his rule from 1997 to 2003. While the transfer symbolically concludes a decadelong effort to bring Taylor to justice, the unintended consequences of the prosecution have been felt far and wide and are likely to complicate attempts to resolve violent conflicts in the future. The desire for justice is understandable. Both West African conflicts were archetypically Hobbesian in nature. Diamonds mined from shallow alluvial deposits financed the just-as-easy acquisition of small arms, fueling the lusty imperial ambitions of Taylor and his allies (including former Libyan leader Moa

Summary Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos faces two challenges in ongoing peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, also known as the FARC. Democratic Center, a conservative political party led by former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, has remained consistently opposed to any negotiations with militants and is gaining political ground ahead of legislative and presidential elections in 2014. A rise in FARC attacks against energy infrastructure also threatens to further reduce public support for the talks. To safeguard the talks and possibly avoid a political defeat, Santos will likely try to speed up progress toward a preliminary peace deal with the rebels before the election. The FARC will continue to use attacks as leverage but not to the point that it severely undermines the talks. If the government can show progress in the negotiations, such as a partial peace deal, before the elections, it would ensure future support for an eventual agreement regardles

According to government authorities, Beijing will close its four remaining coal-fired power plants before the start of 2015, replacing them with four new natural gas-fired power plants at a total investment cost of $7.8 billion. When completed, these four power plants using natural gas from Shaanxi province will have a total generating capacity of 2.7 gigawatts. In the near term, efforts to reduce coal usage will probably be limited to Beijing and a few other top-tier cities, such as Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangzhou, where the Party is most keen to quell social discontent by improving the quality of life, in part by decreasing pollution. The rest of China's economy will almost certainly continue to rely on coal for two-thirds or more of its energy and electricity needs throughout the next decade; national coal consumption is set to rise from 3.66 billion metric tons in 2012 to well over 4 billion metric tons in the next few years, despite the government's intent to cap consu

Summary Ireland and Portugal, two recipients of bailouts from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, will present their 2014 budgets on Oct. 15. While the new budgets probably will include spending cuts and tax hikes, austerity measures are likely to be less harsh than in previous years. Dublin and Lisbon are attempting to balance social stability against fiscal consolidation efforts as they prepare to return to financial markets in early and late 2014, respectively. Elsewhere in the European Union, debates over national budgets for 2014 have been particularly contentious in the Netherlands and Italy, two countries with fragile ruling coalitions. France, meanwhile, is looking for a balance between demands at home and abroad. Analysis On Oct. 8, the European Commission accepted Ireland's plan to implement tax and spending increases worth 2.5 billion euros ($3.39 billion), instead of the 3.1 billion euros originally agreed upon with the troika (the commission, the Eu