ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Norman Solomon and Abba A. Solomon November 27, 2013 - More than ever, Israel is isolated from world opinion and the squishy entity known as “the international community.” The Israeli government keeps condemning the Iran nuclear deal, by any rational standard a positive step away from the threat of catastrophic war. In the short run, the belligerent responses from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are bound to play badly in most of the U.S. media. But Netanyahu and the forces he represents have only begun to fight. They want war on Iran, and they are determined to exercise their political muscle that has long extended through most of the Washington establishment. While it’s unlikely that such muscle can undo the initial six-month nuclear deal reached with Iran last weekend, efforts are already underway to damage and destroy the negotiations down the road. On Capitol Hill the attacks are most intense from Republicans, and some leading Democrats have also sniped at the agreement reach

The French government said Nov. 26 that it would deploy about 1,000 troops to the Central African Republic , where the government and African peacekeeping forces have failed to put an end to insecurity. The land-locked African nation has been racked by violence since current President Michel Djotodia's rise to power through a rebellion in March . After the Seleka alliance of rebels brought Djotodia to power, he disbanded the alliance, but his lack of control over the rebels and the limited capabilities of the country's security forces have meant that he has been unable to control the spread of local militias or quell continuing violence against civilians. At the moment, 410 French soldiers are already in the country guarding the airport and French interests as well as providing logistical support for the 2,500 African peacekeeping forces from Cameroon, Chad, Gabon and the Republic of the Congo deployed there. However, the African peacekeepers operate mainly in the capital

Security forces of the Central African Republic patrol in the capital, Bangui, on Nov. 22. (PACOME PABANDJI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The deployment of French troops to the Central African Republic brings Paris to a new level of commitment in the conflict, where it had previously limited its presence to protecting French interests and providing logistical support to African peacekeepers. The French government said Nov. 26 that it would deploy about 1,000 troops to the landlocked African nation, where the government and African peacekeeping forces have failed to put an end to insecurity. However, the French forces will likely avoid direct engagement with the remaining rebel forces in the country. Analysis The Central African Republic has been racked by violence since current President Michel Djotodia's rise to power through a rebellion in March . After the Seleka alliance of rebels brought Djotodia to power, he disbanded the alliance, but his lack of control over the rebels and th

WASHINGTON — The United States on Monday joined ally Japan in vowing not to recognize China’s declaration of an air defense zone over much of the East China Sea, a move that has sharply escalated tensions. China and Japan each summoned the other’s ambassador after Beijing said Saturday it had established an Air Defense Identification Zone—which would require aircraft to obey its orders—over an area that includes islands administered by Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has vowed no compromise on sovereignty issues, called on China to “restrain itself” over the move, which put Tokyo’s conservative government in rare unison with South Korea and Taiwan. “I am strongly concerned as it is a profoundly dangerous act that may cause unintended consequences,” Abe told the Diet. U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration has vowed to defend Japan and said that the islands—known as the Senkakus in Japanese and the Diaoyus in Chinese—fall under the US security treaty with its ally,

TOKYO — Japanese airlines on Tuesday said they would follow rules set by China when it declared an air control zone over the East China Sea, even as Tokyo said they should ignore them. All Nippon Airways (ANA) said that since Sunday it has been submitting flight plans to Chinese authorities for any plane that was due to pass through the area. Its affiliate Peach Aviation said it was doing the same “for now”. The announcements came after former flag carrier Japan Airlines said it was complying with demands Beijing set out on Saturday when it said it had established an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) where all aircraft were required to obey its orders. The zone covers the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku islands, which Beijing claims as the Diaoyus, where ships and aircraft from the two countries already shadow each other in a dangerous game of cat and mouse. “We have taken the measures in line with international regulations,” an ANA spokesman said. “Safety is our top priority. We have to

By George Friedman A deal between Iran and the P-5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) was reached Saturday night . The Iranians agreed to certain limitations on their nuclear program while the P-5+1 agreed to remove certain economic sanctions. The next negotiation, scheduled for six months from now depending on both sides' adherence to the current agreement, will seek a more permanent resolution. The key players in this were the United States and Iran. The mere fact that the U.S. secretary of state would meet openly with the Iranian foreign minister would have been difficult to imagine a few months ago, and unthinkable at the beginning of the Islamic republic. The U.S. goal is to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons before they are built, without the United States having to take military action to eliminate them. While it is commonly assumed that the United States could eliminate the Iranian nuclear program at will with airstrikes, as with most

Pro-European lawmakers hold the EU and Ukrainian flags in the Ukrainian parliament on Nov. 22. (SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Ukraine's decision to halt the process for signing landmark political and economic agreements with the European Union has caught the Europeans and much of the media by surprise, but the move fits within Stratfor's ongoing analysis of the issue. At root is Ukraine's geopolitical imperative to balance between the European Union and Russia, without getting too close to one or the other. The same fundamental forces that drove Ukraine's decision on the EU agreements will temper any future compromise or settlement with Russia. Analysis A week before Ukraine's Nov. 21 decision to freeze negotiations with Brussels , we noted, "Kiev has so far attempted to balance both sides [the European Union and Russia] without committing too firmly to either. The time for Ukraine to make a concrete decision is approaching, however, and recent de

Analysis Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week. EUROPE Nov. 25: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Pope Francis in Rome. Nov. 26: Germany's Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union and Social Democratic Party hope to conclude coalition negotiations. Nov. 26: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta in Trieste. Nov. 26-27: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will visit Romania to attend the summit between China and Central and Eastern European countries. Nov. 27: The Italian Senate is expected to vote on the expulsion of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi from the parliament. Nov. 28-29: The Eastern Partnership Summit will take place in Vilnius. It brings together leaders from the Eu