ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Pepe Escobar December 18, 2013 - It happened now and it will happen again: a near-collision between an American and a Chinese naval vessel in the South China Sea. The USS Cowpens, a 10,000-ton guided-missile cruiser, got "too close" to a drill involving the Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier, and its carrier task force, according to the Global Times. The US Pacific Fleet stressed that the cruiser had to take emergency measures to avoid a collision. Yet the Global Times accused the cruiser of "harassing" the Liaoning formation by taking "offensive actions" . The paper spelt it loudly; "If the American navy and air force always encroach near China's doorstep, confrontation is bound to take place." Finally, China's Defense Ministry intervened to clarify that the vessels had "met" each other in the South China Sea but the worst was avoided via "effective and normal communication". Communication had better be d

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends the ceremony for the formation of a new coalition government in Berlin on Dec. 16 (Carsten Koall/Getty Images) Analysis Germany's new coalition government -- consisting of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union party, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the center-left Social Democratic Party -- officially took power on Dec. 17 after the German parliament voted to confirm Merkel's third chancellorship. There were two surprises among a host of familiar faces in the revamped 16-member Cabinet: Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen as defense minister and Social Democrat Joerg Asmussen as deputy labor minister (he will need to leave the European Central Bank's Executive Board). Christian Democrat Wolfgang Schauble will retain his post as finance minister. The Social Democrats' most prominent appointments will be Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister and Sigmar Gab

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit (C) is surrounded by his security detail during a rally in South Sudan's Unity state April 8, 2010. (MOHAMED DAHIR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary A firefight that broke out late Dec. 15 in the South Sudanese capital of Juba does not appear to have been an attempted coup, as some news organizations have reported. Rather, the incident -- in which presidential guard members with different tribal backgrounds fought at their barracks in the capital -- highlights the persisting tribal frictions in South Sudan. These tribal frictions take a central role in the political competition between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and former Vice President Riek Machar, who come from different tribes, as they prepare to compete for the presidency in the 2015 election. Moreover, the incident is unlikely to affect the flow of oil from South Sudan through Sudan. Even if there were a change in government in Juba, the new government would face the same economic cons

A North Korean soldier stands guard on the Yalu River on the Chinese border Dec. 17. (MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin said Dec. 17 that North Korea could take provocative military steps between January and early March, a time when U.S. and South Korean forces carry out several annual military exercises. Kim said his warnings were based on an assessment of North Korea's internal political situation and previous behavior. Kim said a statement by a ruling Saenuri Party lawmaker that North Korea is preparing for nuclear and missile tests was not correct, however. The comments followed reports that North Korea had spread leaflets over a South Korean-controlled island along the western maritime Northern Limit Line, threatening that the island would be bombarded. Following the execution of Jang Song Thaek , the uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and formerly a key individual overseeing the transition of power from Kim Jong Il, nume

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan in New York on Sept. 23. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images) Summary As Nigeria moves toward a more fluent multiparty system, one opposition party now has the numbers to challenge the status of the long-ruling People's Democratic Party in elections. The All Progressives Congress on Dec. 16 called for Nigeria's National Assembly to impeach President Goodluck Jonathan for "gross misconduct." Jonathan quickly countered by threatening treason charges against the party. Provided that it can hold together, the All Progressives Congress will have a significant impact on Nigeria's presidential election in April 2015. This means the People's Democratic Party can no longer take the election or its own leadership primaries for granted. Although the party has always had to balance various interests in order to gain enough votes to ensure it wins the presidency, its widespread support has historically enabled it to rotate leadership from zone

  Turkey has shipped 47 tonnes of weapons to Syrian rebels since June despite repeated government denials, a local newspaper reported on Monday. The Hurriyet Daily News, citing U.N. and Turkish Statistics Institute records, said 29 tonnes of military equipment were sent to opposition fighters in September alone. The government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a vociferous opponent of Syrian President Bashar Assad, has openly supported the rebels but has always denied arming them. "Turkey does not supply arms to any group" in Syria, a Turkish diplomat told Agence France Presse when asked to comment on the report. He said the U.N. and Turkish records cited by Hurriyet were "guns without military uses". Hundreds of Turks have crossed the border into Syria to fight with al-Qaida linked jihadists against the Damascus regime, according to an interior ministry report published last month. Ankara has been accused of turning a blind ey

A federal judge rules that the National Security Agency's program of gathering data on all telephone calls made in the US is unconstitutional. NBC's Pete Williams reports. By Pete Williams, NBC News justice correspondent December 16, 2013 - " NBC " - A federal judge ruled Monday that the National Security Agency’s gathering of data on all telephone calls made in the United States appears to violate the Constitution’s protection against unreasonable searches. The judge, Richard Leon of U.S. District Court in Washington, said that the NSA relied on “almost-Orwellian technology” that would have been unimaginable a generation ago, at the time of a landmark Supreme Court decision on phone records. Leon, an appointee of President George W. Bush, ruled in favor of two Americans who challenged the NSA program and wanted their data removed from NSA records. The judge found that the two were likely to prevail under the Fourth Amendment, the Constitution’s protection against unr

On Dec. 12, the United States reassured Japan that Washington does not officially recognize China's controversial new air defense identification zone , or ADIZ. The message came only a few days after South Korea expanded its own ADIZ for the first time since the 1950s in response to China's declared ADIZ. China's ADIZ overlaps with those of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The unsolicited expansion has generated controversy, especially with Japan because China's ADIZ also extends over the disputed Japanese-controlled Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, over which China claims sovereignty. For its part, South Korea's ADIZ expansion captures Ieodo Reef (known as Suyan Rock in Chinese, a small partially submerged rock in South Korea's exclusive economic zone in the East China Sea. Though not in Korean territorial waters, South Korea operates an oceanic research station and helipad on the rock, which has been the subject of prior disputes with China over exclusive economic