ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Text Size Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas in December 2013. (LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images) Summary With his presidency less stable than that of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, President Nicolas Maduro appears to be using dialogue to try to gather allies from the political opposition. Maduro met on Jan. 8 with opponents, including former presidential challenger and Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski. Prompted by the murder of a national celebrity, the meeting focused on Venezuela's soaring crime rate. Maduro's government is attempting to begin a political dialogue with the opposition by increasing the number of meetings between them. If he is able to gain support from opposition members, Maduro would gain the added benefit of exploiting divisions within the opposition coalition, enabling himself to focus on addressing other national issues. Analysis The meeting is one of several formal contacts between the ruling United Socialist Party of Vene...

Indian members of a special tactical unit, including personnel from a group skilled in anti-Naxalite operations, during a demonstration in Bhubaneswar on July 8, 2013. ASIT KUMAR/AFP/Getty Images Summary Indian media is touting the arrest of Gudsa Usendi, a spokesman for a regional committee of India's Maoist militant rebels known as Naxalites, as a significant victory for the country's counterterrorism efforts. Usendi, whose real name is Gumudavelli Venkatakrishna Prasad, served as the main media contact for the Dandakaranya Special Zone Committee's regional command structure. However, the surrender of a key figure within the country's Maoist insurgent movement is unlikely to be a blow to the Naxalites. As a regional-level public relations officer for the group, Prasad was probably not involved in operational details. Moreover, it takes more than the loss of one personality -- even a major figure -- to seriously degrade a militant network for any period of time. Prasa...

A Thai anti-government protester at a rally outside Government House in Bangkok on Dec. 15. (PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary As Thailand's opposition movement prepares to hold mass protests to "shut down" Bangkok on Jan. 13, the entire spectrum of royalist and establishment political forces seems to have hardened its position against the ruling Pheu Thai party and supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck, his sister and current prime minister. Most important, the Royal Thai Army has recently changed its tone in speaking about its willingness to stage a coup. Anti-government forces have created a situation in which they can either interfere with upcoming elections or deprive Pheu Thai of the authority an electoral victory would typically bestow. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai faces the quandary of retaining power amid these procedural and legal challenges while also managing the upcoming protests without tarnishing its image with ...

A Chinese bank staff member counts stacks of 100-yuan notes at a bank in Huaibei, east China's Anhui province, on Aug. 17, 2012. AFP/AFP/GettyImages Summary China's leaders are looking to balance steady, incremental reforms of the state-controlled banking sector with the need for stability and strong central oversight of the system. Recently released statistics from China's National Audit Office point to the growing imbalances plaguing China's financial system and highlight the need to stabilize credit expansion and reform the relationship between local governments, state-owned enterprises and state-owned banks. These are critical components of Beijing's ambition to move toward a more sustainable model of economic growth. Analysis The need for reform has been echoed in the weeks following the Communist Party's November Third Plenary session, at which President Xi Jinping and his colleagues pledged to allow market forces to play a decisive role in the allocation...

A strategy of tension created by divisions among foreign-funded fighters may give West an opportunity to increasingly "back good terrorists" versus "bad terrorists By Tony Cartalucci January 07, 2014 - " LD " - Geopolitical analyst Eric Draitser on Press TV explained what is behind recent infighting between foreign-funded fighters battling along and within Syria's borders. It is suggested that a new narrative is in the making, portraying "good terrorists" locked in battle with "bad terrorists," thus providing a new context within which the West can continue arming and funding terrorist groups waging war on Syria. While the West will maintain that the conflict in Syria began as "peaceful protests," readers should keep in mind that Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh in his article, " The Redirection: Is the Administration's new policy benefiting our enemies in the war on terrorism? " prophetically stat...

Following a housecleaning of his Cabinet amid a rising corruption scandal , Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his replacements for 10 cabinet posts Dec. 25, including those of three members who resigned earlier in the day. All but the new minister of justice, Bekir Bozdag, are newcomers and little known. Bozdag, a former vice premier, is a theologian who has been a member of parliament for the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, since 2002. As reported by the Turkish daily Turkiye, the other new Cabinet members include: Deputy Prime Minister: Emrullah Isler, an AKP lawmaker from Ankara. He is a graduate of King Saud University in Saudi Arabia with a doctorate in Islamic studies. Minister for European Union Affairs: Mevlut Cavusoglu, an AKP lawmaker from Antalya. He reportedly is fluent in English, German and Japanese and has a graduate degree from Long Island University. Interior Minister: Efkan Ala, an undersecretary in the prime ministry. He served as...

Ankara is trying to figure out whether an eventual U.S. entry into the global liquefied natural gas export market and natural gas production in North Africa will make it worthwhile for Turkey to expand its liquefied natural gas import capacity . Turkey currently has two liquefied natural gas import terminals -- one at Marmara Ereglisi that has an annual capacity of 8.2 billion cubic meters and a maximum send-out capacity of 22 million cubic meters, and another in the town of Aliaga on the Aegean coast with an annual capacity of 6 billion cubic meters and maximum send-out capacity of 16 million cubic meters. Liquefied natural gas imports from Algeria, Nigeria and Qatar and smaller amounts from Norway and Egypt accounted for roughly 14 percent of Turkey's total natural gas imports in 2012, with most of this supply consumed by industrialized areas in and around Istanbul in the Marmara region. Turkey is considering building additional liquefied natural gas import terminals on the ...

A shepherd tends his sheep in southern Transylvania on March 10, 2013, near Tohanu Nou, Romania. Sean Gallup/Getty Images Summary The possibility that Hungary is considering buying land in Western Romania is part of a larger trend in Central Europe, which is undergoing changes as the European Union's crisis worsens and as Russia becomes stronger. Moreover, the potential move indicates the scope of Hungary's geopolitical concerns amid this regional dynamism and ahead of national elections. Analysis Hungary's meandering takeover negotiations with Austrian bank Raiffeisen have dominated regional and international discourse over the past two days. Stratfor noted yesterday that these talks are not just about a financial transaction -- they are also an expression of Hungary's unique set of policies in response to the strategic challenges it faces. Click to Enlarge A diplomatic gaffe by a minor Hungarian government official Jan. 7 has garnered little international attentio...