ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

March 3, 2014 - Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 5 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Tuesday or face a military assault, Interfax news agency quoted a source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as saying. The ultimatum, Interfax said, was issued by Alexander Vitko, the fleet's commander. The ministry did not immediately confirm the report and there was no immediate comment by the Black Sea Fleet, which has a base in Crimea, where Russian forces are in control. "If they do not surrender before 5 a.m. tomorrow, a REAL ASSAULT will be started against units and divisions of the armed forces across Crimea," the agency quoted the ministry source as saying. Meanwhile, Ukraine's first president, Leonid Kravchuk, has slammed Russia's invasion of Ukraine and said he would take up arms to defend his homeland if Moscow does not retreat. In an op-ed written for Russian website snob.ru, Kravchuk said that Putin had gone too far. "The

By Professor Mazin Qumsiyeh  - It is sometimes instructive to learn a bit of history to reflect on current events because if we do not learn from history, we are bound to repeat the tragic history of useless wars. This came to me as I read about the escalating situation in Ukraine, where the US and western countries invested heavily to dislodge the Ukraine (strategically located on the Black Sea) from Russian influence. The coup that toppled the elected government in the capital and Russia’s strong influence in the mostly Russian Speaking Crimean peninsula of the Ukraine threatens to ignite another Crimean war (1854 prelude to many more European wars). The Crimean war 1854-1856 was a devastating and useless conflict that was started with a with an incident here in Palestine (then under Ottoman Rule). The British were in the midst of an industrial economic boom (at least for the elites, the workers were essentially enslaved). To fuel this industrial boom, Britain (and to a lesser degre

Somali militant group al Shabaab has been able to survive because of its tactical capabilities and adaptability. Recently it has been more active in the capital of Mogadishu; on Feb. 21, militants attacked the Villa Somalia compound, which is home to the presidential compound and, as such, is one of the city's most secure locations. The attack gave rise to renewed concern about the group's activities. Unless security forces conduct a more effective counterinsurgency, the increased al Shabaab presence in Mogadishu may cause continued attrition that could allow the group to re-establish a foothold in the capital. The Villa Somalia attack follows the tactics al Shabaab militants used in their assaults on the Mogadishu courthouse in April 2013 and the U.N. compound in June 2013. These attacks combined the destructive power of vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and suicide commandos . Outside of the capital, Somali and African Union forces have held territory around Beled

Unidentified soldiers guard the Crimean parliament building next to a sign that reads 'Crimea Russia' on March 1 in Simferopol, Ukraine. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Analysis Moves by Russia on March 1 heightened security tensions in Ukraine's autonomous republic of Crimea, deepening concerns of an imminent Russian military takeover of the peninsula. The newest turn of events began when the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement alleging that a group of unidentified armed men from Kiev attempted to seize the Interior Ministry building in Simferopol -- though this has not been confirmed by authorities in Kiev. In response, the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin for assistance in "ensuring peace and tranquility" in Crimea. Putin responded positively to the appeal, sending Russia's Federation Council -- the upper house of the Russian parliament -- a request for the use of Russian armed

A Ukrainian soldier stands behind the gate of a Crimean military base that was surrounded by Russian forces March 2. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Summary Kiev ordered a military mobilization and called up reservists nationwide March 2, a day after Russia's upper house of parliament approved Russian President Vladimir Putin's request to send troops into Ukraine. But the Ukrainian military finds itself in a weak state of readiness at a time when its country needs it the most. That and Western reluctance to get involved militarily will make Kiev hesitant to provoke the Russians by using military force. Analysis At first glance, the Ukrainian military appears quite capable. Though largely equipped with legacy systems from the late Cold War, the weapons -- whether tanks, combat aircraft, or helicopters -- in Ukraine's inventory remain potent. In fact, the Russians continue to use much of the same equipment despite a recent modernization drive. On paper at least, the Ukra

Video - 03-1-2014 During an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council Saturday both the Russian and U.S. ambassadors to the international organization delivered statements on Russia's decision to send troops into the Crimea region of Ukraine. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin went first, delivering an extended statement defending Russia's actions despite warnings from President Barack Obama to respect Ukraine's sovereignty. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power followed Churkin, issuing a strong rebuke of Russia's actions. "It is time for the Russian intervention in Ukraine to end," Powers said. "Russian actions in Ukraine are violating the sovereignty of Ukraine and threaten international peace and security." She called for the "immediate deployment" of UN and OSCE observers in the region. Previously, Ukrainian Ambassador Yuriy Sergeyev told the council, "We call on the Security Council now to do everythin

By Moon Of Alabama - The U.S. and EU sponsored coup against the elected government and president of the Ukraine had several strategic implications and aims. One of them is the Black Sea base of the Russian Navy which is used to supply and defend Syria. A takeover of the government in Kiev was necessary but not sufficient to neutralize the base as a strategic Russian asset. To do that a takeover of the local government of the Crimea and all its powers would also have to take place. The Crimea is historically Russian and most of it inhabitants are Russians. There is also a rather small minority of Tatars of Muslim heritage. There seem to have been plans in place to use that minority to help with a takeover of the Crimean government by the "western" sponsored coup-government in Kiev. In mid December 2013(!) the Turkish website Aydinlik Daily reported : According to news appearing in the French, Ukrainian and Russian press, Turkish Intelligence has a finger in the ongoing pro-EU

By Tony Ortega - " Raw Story " - President Obama spoke to Russia’s President Putin today for about 90 minutes, and told him that he’s violating international law with Russian troops leaving their bases in Crimea to seize control of the Ukraine territory. Both sides put out descriptions of the lengthy discussion. First, here’s the White House’s explanation of how the call went… President Obama spoke for 90 minutes this afternoon with President Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine. President Obama expressed his deep concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine, and which is inconsistent with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the Helsinki Final Act. The United States condemns Russia’s military intervention into Ukrainian territory. The United States calls on Russia to