ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By Scott Stewart There has been some media speculation recently about the possibility of terrorist groups targeting the food supply. This is a topic that has come up repeatedly in the years since 9/11. From time to time, the possibility of such an attack creates a bit of concern among the public and especially among organizations focused on food issues, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration or agricultural trade groups. However, despite the potentially grave consequences of an attack against the food supply -- and concerns raised by these consequences -- such attacks are in fact quite rare. There are good reasons for this lack of attacks against the food supply. Types of Attacks Targeting Food Supplies At the most basic level, threats to a country's food supply can come in two general forms: attacks designed to create famine and attacks designed to directly poison people. Attacks designed to create famine are the types of attacks most frequently discussed in the press. Thi...

By George Friedman During the Cold War, U.S. secretaries of state and Soviet foreign ministers routinely negotiated the outcome of crises and the fate of countries. It has been a long time since such talks have occurred, but last week a feeling of deja vu overcame me. Americans and Russians negotiated over everyone's head to find a way to defuse the crisis in Ukraine and, in the course of that, shape its fate. During the talks, U.S. President Barack Obama made it clear that Washington has no intention of expanding NATO into either Ukraine or Georgia. The Russians have stated that they have no intention of any further military operations in Ukraine. Conversations between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry have been extensive and ongoing. For different reasons, neither side wants the crisis to continue, and each has a different read on the situation. The Russian Perspective The Russians are convinced that the uprising in Kiev was fomented b...

Today, Japan saw its first national consumption tax hike since 1997, with the rate rising from 5 percent to 8 percent. For more than a decade, Japan's relatively low consumer taxes have been seen as a likely target for raising rates to increase tax revenue and begin dealing with Japan's high levels of national debt. But raising the tax rate has not entirely gone without controversy or criticism. Some have feared a drop in consumer spending and a heavier burden on Japan's expanding aging population, pointing to how the 1997 tax hike contributed to the country's return to recession. The short-term effect is estimated to be about 6 trillion yen ($58 billion), or 1.2 percent of gross domestic product, according to Morgan Stanley. Tokyo hopes that stimulus measures designed to blunt the impact on select groups will help lessen the sting of the increase. Though Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe feared the tax hike would harm his economic agenda, often referred to as Abenomic...

(From L-R) Ukrainian United Democratic Alliance for Reform leader Vitali Klitschko and Ukrainian parliament members Andriy Shevchenko and Petro Poroshenko in London on March 26. (CARL COURT/AFP/Getty Images) Summary At Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on March 30 in Paris, the Russian delegation demanded that Ukraine institute a federal system to empower its regions and remain neutral in its alliance systems. A day earlier, Vitali Klitschko, a boxer-turned-politician and frontrunner in Ukraine's presidential race, withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western oligarch. While high-level negotiations between the United States and Russia are shaping a possible compromise in Ukraine , and Klitschko's endorsement of Poroshenko has redefined the country's presidential race, Ukraine's future hinges largely on the unity and stability of its interim government. Analysis Despite its interim statu...

By Asad Ismi - On the 11th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq (launched in March 2003), it is important to emphasize the true motives for this attack and occupation and its horrendously destructive impact that continues today. Both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars stem from the needs of U.S. and Western capitalism for resources and markets. Capitalism has inflicted war on most of humanity for centuries to acquire the world’s resources and markets. The establishment of capitalism as a global economic system by European imperialists has killed more than a billion people, most of them in the Global South. Since 1945, the United States has presided over the killing of more than 46 million people in the Global South through wars and neocolonialism in order to maintain Western economic dominance. This strategy has failed. In spite of the genocide, the U.S. has declined as an economic power, which has only made it more war-like as it tries to substitute military force for economic pro...

In Turkey's March 30 local elections, roughly 45 percent of the overall vote across the country went to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The election results have renewed the party's mandate in the face of challenges such as a slowing economy and a wave of corruption allegations that triggered a Cabinet reshuffle at the beginning of the year. Many thought the election would hobble the long-serving Erdogan, particularly in light of the ruptured alliance with the powerful network of the Fethullah Gulen religious movement. Instead, it proved a successful endorsement of a party that has overseen a doubling of Turkey's per capita gross domestic product in the past decade. The AKP retained control of the key cities of Istanbul and Ankara; retook the largest Mediterranean city, Antalya, which it had lost four years ago; and even beat expectations in regions bordering Syria that have been buffeted by the collapse of trade ...

EUROPE March 31: Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic and Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci will attend a new round of talks in Brussels, which will include EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton. March 31: Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit EU headquarters in Brussels and meet with European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. He will then deliver a speech April 1 on EU-China relations at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium. March 31: Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades will continue talks with Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu on the Cyprus issue. March 31-April 4: European Parliament committee meetings will be held all week. April 1: Hungary will reduce household natural gas prices by 6.5 percent. April 1-2: EU finance ministers will gather in Athens for an informal meeting. April 1-2: The foreign ministers of NATO member states will meet and discuss topics including the standoff with Russia over Ukrain...

Rebel fighters near the village of Kassab in the northwestern province of Latakia, Syria, on March 24. (AMR RADWAN AL-HOMSI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On March 21, rebel forces in Syria, predominantly from the Islamic Front and Jabhat al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive in Latakia governorate on the far northwestern tip of Syria near the Turkish border. Even if the rebels do not have the strength to seize Latakia, their recent assault has been highly successful in shifting the regime's attention from other hard-pressed regions. Analysis The Latakia offensive, alternatively known as "Anfal" by Jabhat al-Nusra and "The Martyrs Mothers" by the other rebel groups, has made significant progress in the week since it began. The rebels have reportedly managed to seize the ethnic Armenian village of Kassab and its associated border crossing as well as the villages of Samra, Nabaain, and Duzaghaj. Other significant gains include the so-called "Observatory 45,...