Rebel fighters near the village of Kassab in the northwestern province of Latakia, Syria, on March 24. (AMR RADWAN AL-HOMSI/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
On March 21, rebel forces in Syria, predominantly from the Islamic Front and Jabhat al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive in Latakia governorate on the far northwestern tip of Syria near the Turkish border. Even if the rebels do not have the strength to seize Latakia, their recent assault has been highly successful in shifting the regime's attention from other hard-pressed regions.
Analysis
The Latakia offensive, alternatively known as "Anfal" by Jabhat al-Nusra and "The Martyrs Mothers" by the other rebel groups, has made significant progress in the week since it began. The rebels have reportedly managed to seize the ethnic Armenian village of Kassab and its associated border crossing as well as the villages of Samra, Nabaain, and Duzaghaj. Other significant gains include the so-called "Observatory 45," strategic mountaintop position. Opposition forces have pushed down as far as Qastal Maaf, where they are currently heavily engaged with regime forces. The rebels have succeeded in inflicting a substantial number of casualties on the regime, killing key officers including Hilal al Assad, President Bashar al Assad's cousin and the head of the Latakia branch of the volunteer militia known as the National Defense Force.
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Despite the initial success of the offensive, the rebels will have a difficult time further exploiting their gains. A push toward the capital city of the province, also called Latakia, will be made considerably more difficult in a region that harbors a population sympathetic to the regime. A move on the capital would also mean entering the coastal plain from the mountains, which would place the rebels at a considerable disadvantage against regime armor, air power and heavy weaponry.
Given the highly symbolic status of Latakia as a key loyalist bastion -- and the home of numerous regime officials, including al Assad -- the regime has been alarmed by the rebel offensive. National Defense Forces, regular forces, and other paramilitary forces have already been deployed to front lines across the governorate. The regime has also attempted to slow down the rebel advances with incessant artillery and airstrikes. Most important, additional reinforcements from Idlib and Hama governorates have reportedly been dispatched.
Prior to the offensive, rebel action against the regime in Latakia was largely contained as the opposition focused on a vicious internecine fight with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. In recent weeks, rebels from the Islamic Front, the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al-Nusra succeeded in pushing the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant out of Latakia, Idlib and western Aleppo, allowing the formalized rebellion to increasingly focus its attention on regime targets.
The regime has been mostly content with maintaining a blocking position against rebel groups in the northeastern part of Latakia around Jabal Akrad and Jabal Turkman as it launched a series of largely successful offensives across Syria, including Aleppo, western Homs, and the Qalamoun region. Regardless of whether the rebels intended to draw in loyalist forces from elsewhere, their offensive in Latakia has successfully brought in regime forces from other hard-pressed rebel sectors.
Interestingly, Turkey hasindirectly played a significant role in the rebels' ability to carry out their offensive. While there is no explicit evidence of a direct Turkish military role in the Latakia thrust, the Turks have largely turned a blind eye to rebel movement through their borders, even as they fiercely defend their territory from regime incursion. Most recently, on March 23, Turkish interceptors shot down a Syrian air force MiG-23. Although rumors and leaks have been circulating -- postulating the Turkish creation of a casus belli out of the situation in Kassab -- Stratfor finds it highly unlikely that Ankara will go beyond a defensive military posture in the borderland with Syria.
Given the significant gains made by the regime over the past few months, including substantial advances in the Qalamoun region, it is clear that the Syrian army currently has the strategic initiative, in large part thanks to Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah aid. The rebel offensive in Latakia, alongside other small advances in Daraa and Idlib, is yet another reminder of the enduring longevity of the Syrian crisis. Neither side has the strength to fully secure the entire country. In the absence of a political settlement, vicious cycles of attack and counterattack, offensive and counteroffensive will remain a hallmark of the crisis for some time to come.
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