Skip to main content

Turkey's Ruling Party Consolidates Its Fractured Power Base



Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and his wife greet the crowd at the AKP headquarters in Ankara on March 31. (ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary


In a string of local elections turned national referendum on the rule of one man, the big winner in the March 30 local elections in Turkey was Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The results -- roughly 45 percent of the overall vote across the country was in favor of the AKP -- renewed the party's mandate in the face of challenges that include a slowing economy and a wave of corruption allegations that triggered a Cabinet reshuffle at the beginning of the year. While the results mean Turkey's political landscape will remain polarized and combative, the outcome paves the way for Erdogan to make an expected bid for the presidency next August, consolidating his rule over the country's institutions and signaling increased confidence in the region.

Analysis


Many thought the election would hobble the long-serving Erdogan, particularly in light of the ruptured alliance with the powerful network of the Fethullah Gulen religious movement. Instead, it proved a successful endorsement of a party that has overseen a doubling of Turkey's per capita gross domestic product in the past decade. Meanwhile, the AKP's erstwhile ally is widely believed to be the source of dramatic eavesdropping and leaked recordings that include tapes of Erdogan counseling his son on hiding millions of dollars in cash and a top security leak that portrayed the foreign minister and intelligence chief as plotting to draw Syria into direct conflict to garner domestic sympathy for the government's fierce anti-Syria policies. The leaks across social media sites led to Erdogan's ban of both Twitter and YouTube, prompting an international outcry against constraints on free expression.

But in the end, all that meant little. The AKP retained control of the key cities of Istanbul and Ankara; retook the largest Mediterranean city, Antalya, which it had lost four years ago; and even beat expectations in regions bordering Syria that have been buffeted by the collapse of trade and huge inflows of refugees. The main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, held Izmir, the third largest city and its stronghold.

Some local business and media elites are sure to meet with reprisals for their outspoken opposition to Erdogan and his party's policies and charges that included tender-rigging in recent months. Erdogan quickly vowed revenge on "enemies" and "traitors" after the votes were in. The flagship newspaper of the Gulen movement, Zaman, gave the first indication of pre-emptive reconciliation by Erdogan's opponents. It showcased a statement by the editor-in-chief, Ekrem Duman, who said, "If the country were not polarized, the AKP would have won 58-60 percent of the votes." Another indicator was a rally in the Turkish lira and a slight rise in the main Istanbul stock exchange, suggesting some market relief at the prospect of political continuity.

Opposition figures and European election monitors raised eyebrows at balloting irregularities, including power outages in Istanbul and other cities. Such charges, however, are unlikely to be more than a mild annoyance for the AKP, which in recent months has strengthened its control over all regulatory agencies and the judiciary.



Conversation: Turkey's Shaky Political Future

While the results generally promise continuity in the government's rule and policies, the main pro-Kurdish party -- the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP -- grew slightly stronger. The autonomy-seeking Kurdish party added victories in a number of cities in the southeast, including its stronghold of Diyarbakir. The party gained control of three provinces: Agri, Bitlis and Mardin. As a result, the AKP will have to devote more attention to the neglected initiatives of the Kurds. Hard-line Turkish nationalist party the National Movement Party, or MHP, also made narrow inroads into AKP territory. The party retained the fourth largest city, Adana, in the south and added nearby Mersin while also winning Kars and Igdir, cities near the borders with Iran and the Caucasus.

In addition to the presidential vote next August, in which Erdogan is likely to run, Turkey has a national parliamentary election next year. While now set for June 2015, the success of the March 30 election could lead the party to call earlier elections in a bid to cement its new momentum.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re
Post a Comment
Read more

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has
Post a Comment
Read more

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif
1 comment
Read more