Turkey's Ruling Party Consolidates Its Fractured Power Base

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and his wife greet the crowd at the AKP headquarters in Ankara on March 31. (ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

In a string of local elections turned national referendum on the rule of one man, the big winner in the March 30 local elections in Turkey was Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The results -- roughly 45 percent of the overall vote across the country was in favor of the AKP -- renewed the party's mandate in the face of challenges that include a slowing economy and a wave of corruption allegations that triggered a Cabinet reshuffle at the beginning of the year. While the results mean Turkey's political landscape will remain polarized and combative, the outcome paves the way for Erdogan to make an expected bid for the presidency next August, consolidating his rule over the country's institutions and signaling increased confidence in the region.

Analysis

Many thought the election would hobble the long-serving Erdogan, particularly in light of the ruptured alliance with the powerful network of the Fethullah Gulen religious movement. Instead, it proved a successful endorsement of a party that has overseen a doubling of Turkey's per capita gross domestic product in the past decade. Meanwhile, the AKP's erstwhile ally is widely believed to be the source of dramatic eavesdropping and leaked recordings that include tapes of Erdogan counseling his son on hiding millions of dollars in cash and a top security leak that portrayed the foreign minister and intelligence chief as plotting to draw Syria into direct conflict to garner domestic sympathy for the government's fierce anti-Syria policies. The leaks across social media sites led to Erdogan's ban of both Twitter and YouTube, prompting an international outcry against constraints on free expression.

But in the end, all that meant little. The AKP retained control of the key cities of Istanbul and Ankara; retook the largest Mediterranean city, Antalya, which it had lost four years ago; and even beat expectations in regions bordering Syria that have been buffeted by the collapse of trade and huge inflows of refugees. The main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, held Izmir, the third largest city and its stronghold.

Some local business and media elites are sure to meet with reprisals for their outspoken opposition to Erdogan and his party's policies and charges that included tender-rigging in recent months. Erdogan quickly vowed revenge on "enemies" and "traitors" after the votes were in. The flagship newspaper of the Gulen movement, Zaman, gave the first indication of pre-emptive reconciliation by Erdogan's opponents. It showcased a statement by the editor-in-chief, Ekrem Duman, who said, "If the country were not polarized, the AKP would have won 58-60 percent of the votes." Another indicator was a rally in the Turkish lira and a slight rise in the main Istanbul stock exchange, suggesting some market relief at the prospect of political continuity.

Opposition figures and European election monitors raised eyebrows at balloting irregularities, including power outages in Istanbul and other cities. Such charges, however, are unlikely to be more than a mild annoyance for the AKP, which in recent months has strengthened its control over all regulatory agencies and the judiciary.

Conversation: Turkey's Shaky Political Future

While the results generally promise continuity in the government's rule and policies, the main pro-Kurdish party -- the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP -- grew slightly stronger. The autonomy-seeking Kurdish party added victories in a number of cities in the southeast, including its stronghold of Diyarbakir. The party gained control of three provinces: Agri, Bitlis and Mardin. As a result, the AKP will have to devote more attention to the neglected initiatives of the Kurds. Hard-line Turkish nationalist party the National Movement Party, or MHP, also made narrow inroads into AKP territory. The party retained the fourth largest city, Adana, in the south and added nearby Mersin while also winning Kars and Igdir, cities near the borders with Iran and the Caucasus.

In addition to the presidential vote next August, in which Erdogan is likely to run, Turkey has a national parliamentary election next year. While now set for June 2015, the success of the March 30 election could lead the party to call earlier elections in a bid to cement its new momentum.

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