ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

U.S. President Barack Obama with Japan's Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo before the official state dinner April 24.(JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis U.S. President Barack Obama's weeklong trip throughout Asia, which ends April 29, is largely a media event that will have few implications beyond soothing Asian leaders, who are concerned that the United States is distracted by events in the Middle East and Ukraine. Geopolitically, the trip is of little significance. Topics on the agenda, however, certainly include America's so-called pivot to Asia through the stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade issues with Japan and the country's reinvigorated military, growing tensions over disputed small island chains and shoals throughout the region, the renewal of a U.S. military presence in the Philippines, Malaysia's democracy, and the country's missing jetliner. Below are recent Stratfor analyses of these and related issues. The

Click to Enlarge When the 2008 financial crisis seized international trade and sent the European Union and the United States into recession, the immediate effects on Latin America were surprisingly muted. Bouncing back strongly, Argentina and Brazil saw gross domestic product growth rates of 9.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in 2010. While the recovery was brief in both cases, Chinese demand for South American commodities was an important factor. For a range of countries, Chinese demand has been an important external driver of growth. Brazil, Chile and Peru have all seen China rise to become the top customer, particularly for metals. The primary driver of Chinese demand has been a boom in construction, which has consumed Peruvian and Chilean copper as well as Brazilian iron as building materials. At the same time, population growth and rising wealth have driven demand for soybeans in China. China is the biggest national importer of soybeans, consuming more than 40 percent of

Bolivian military noncomissioned officers march in La Paz on April 24.(AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On April 24, several hundred non-commissioned officers marched in the third straight day of protests by military personnel across Bolivia, and more demonstrations are expected April 25. The protesters are demanding talks with Bolivian President Evo Morales to address grievances within the military. Despite the marches, the Bolivian government currently faces no direct threat from the military, and neither do foreign companies operating in the country. The protests would have to become significantly larger and spread across the country for the government to face a notable risk. Analysis Military personnel began demonstrating April 22 after four non-commissioned officers were removed from their posts for insubordination. The officers had presented to the military high command a series of demands, including higher salaries, improved access to health care and better housing. After

Iraqis walk past election campagin billboards in Kahramana Square in Baghdad on April 13.(AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have chosen the April 30 parliamentary elections to launch their strongest challenge yet. New electoral laws have created conditions that could reverse the past decade's trend of large powerful coalitions, weaken sectarian alliances and encourage greater infighting within and among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political groups. This means the election process will probably be longer and more divisive than ever before as an unprecedented number of political actors try to create a fragile power-sharing agreement. As a result, the central government will become weaker, and its authority will be further undermined by increased paralysis in the legislature. This will pose new challenges for Iran as it tries to maintain its influence over a patchwork of political actors leading a new ruling coalition. Iranian i

Combine harvester pours soybeans in a truck in Campo Novo do Parecis, Mato Grosso, Brazil on March 27, 2012.(YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP/GettyImages) Summary On April 25, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff traveled to the northeastern city of Barcarena in Para state to attend the opening ceremony of the Miritituba-Barcarena port complex. Built by Bunge, an agribusiness and food processing company incorporated in Bermuda but based in New York, the $320 million complex has two terminals -- one in Miritituba on the Tapajos River and the other at the Port of Vila do Conde in Barcarena on the Para River. The terminals will handle grain shipments from Brazil's landlocked state of Mato Grosso and ease pressure on Brazil's overloaded Santos and Paranagua ports in the southeast. The project is just one component of Brazil's broader push to open up the "northern exit" for grain shipments to Europe and Asia via the Atlantic Ocean. Analysis To reach Barcarena, Mato Grosso's grain

By Sheldon Richman - " FFF " - “The U.S. is sending about 600 ground troops to Eastern Europe … to ‘reassure’ allies there as Washington resumes its campaign of pressure on Russia over the Ukraine standoff.” — POLITICO How many American parents would proudly send their sons and daughters off to kill or be killed in Slovyansk or Donetsk? How many young men and women aspire to be the first American to fall in Kramatorsk? Those towns are in eastern Ukraine. President Obama says the “military option” — war, that is — is not on the table in his effort to oppose Russia in the Ukraine crisis, but can we trust him? As pressure mounts on him from America’s war hawks, what will he do when sanctions fail to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to acquiesce? Will the military option then find its way onto that infamous table? Obama has dispatched 600 soldiers to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The U.S. Navy has ships present in the Black Sea, an understandably sensitive mat

By Josh Rogin  " Daily Beast " - As new U.S. sanctions against Russia loom, the Kremlin has shut down—at least for now—intensive high level communications between top U.S. and Russian officials. Since the "invasion of Crimea", President Vladimir Putin and President Barack Obama have had regular phone calls in an often half-hearted attempt to deescalate the ongoing crisis inside Ukraine. But as the U.S. and EU prepare to unveil new sanctions against Russia, Putin has decided the interactions should stop. The Kremlin has ended high-level contact with the Obama administration, according to diplomatic officials and sources close to the Russian leadership. The move signals an end to the diplomacy, for now. “Putin will not talk to Obama under pressure,” said Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Institute for Contemporary Development, a prominent Moscow think tank, and a close associate of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. “It does not mean forever.” Obama and Putin last sp

Many observers have overlooked some of the ancillary regional consequences of the U.S.-Iran deal. As the United States and Iran reached the agreement, Washington encountered trouble with Iran's eastern neighbor, Afghanistan. Afghan President Hamid Karzai would not sign the bilateral security agreement that would authorize a residual American force in Afghanistan after 2014. The standoff will be short-lived, but in light of the U.S.-Iran deal, battles will continue to take place in Afghanistan between two historic rivals: Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is now poised to play an unprecedented role in the region. U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice left Kabul on Tuesday after warning Karzai that if he did not sign the bilateral security agreement Washington would have to withdraw all of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year. That probably will not come to pass; Karzai is simply posturing to get additional concessions from Washington, many of which involve Karzai tryin