ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Analysis Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document listing significant meetings and events planned for the next week. Stratfor analysts use this to stay informed of the activities and travel of world leaders and to guide their areas of focus for the week. EUROPE April 28: EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will meet with new Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and other Serbian government officials in Belgrade to discuss Serbia's ties with the European Union and the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. April 28: Slovakia and Ukraine plan to sign a memorandum on the possible reverse flow of natural gas. April 28-29: Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa will visit Paris to meet with French Prime Minister Manuel Valls. April 29: The French parliament will discuss the spending cuts proposed by the French government. April 29: The EU Political and Security Committee will meet in Brussels. April 30-May 2: Pakistani

Supporters of a Palestinian accord with a poster of Mahmoud Abbas outside the Hamas prime minister's home in Gaza City on April 23, 2014.(SAID KHATIB/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Despite the announcement of a power-sharing agreement between Hamas and Fatah that would end the rift between the Palestinian faction that governs Gaza and the one that rules the West Bank, much must happen before a single coalition government rules all the Palestinian territories. Still, the mere fact that the two sides have begun formalizing a path toward political unification of the territories has widespread implications for the region. The impact will fall not just on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but also on various regional players and the United States. Analysis The Fatah-Hamas deal allows for a five-week period to form a technocratic interim government, with new elections in six months. A senior leader from Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas' main Islamist rival, said that this structure could

Summary NATO was originally created as a counterweight to the might of the Soviet Union after World War II. The deep yet fractious roots that enabled the alliance to prosper have also presented challenges to its leadership and management. More than an organization, NATO is best envisioned as an overarching structure made up of individual, autonomous parts, each with different thought processes, competencies and imperatives. NATO adapted to survive beyond the Cold War but its continued existence remains under threat. Analysis The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was conceived and designed as an intergovernmental military alliance, based on the principle of collective defense. At its inception four years after the end of World War II, NATO was primarily seen as a deterrent against Soviet aggression in Western Europe, keeping vulnerable states in a Western orbit and checking the rise of Eurasian power. Click to Enlarge As a core contributor, the U.S. military footprint in Europe was

U.S. President Barack Obama with Japan's Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo before the official state dinner April 24.(JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images) Analysis U.S. President Barack Obama's weeklong trip throughout Asia, which ends April 29, is largely a media event that will have few implications beyond soothing Asian leaders, who are concerned that the United States is distracted by events in the Middle East and Ukraine. Geopolitically, the trip is of little significance. Topics on the agenda, however, certainly include America's so-called pivot to Asia through the stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership, trade issues with Japan and the country's reinvigorated military, growing tensions over disputed small island chains and shoals throughout the region, the renewal of a U.S. military presence in the Philippines, Malaysia's democracy, and the country's missing jetliner. Below are recent Stratfor analyses of these and related issues. The

Click to Enlarge When the 2008 financial crisis seized international trade and sent the European Union and the United States into recession, the immediate effects on Latin America were surprisingly muted. Bouncing back strongly, Argentina and Brazil saw gross domestic product growth rates of 9.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in 2010. While the recovery was brief in both cases, Chinese demand for South American commodities was an important factor. For a range of countries, Chinese demand has been an important external driver of growth. Brazil, Chile and Peru have all seen China rise to become the top customer, particularly for metals. The primary driver of Chinese demand has been a boom in construction, which has consumed Peruvian and Chilean copper as well as Brazilian iron as building materials. At the same time, population growth and rising wealth have driven demand for soybeans in China. China is the biggest national importer of soybeans, consuming more than 40 percent of

Bolivian military noncomissioned officers march in La Paz on April 24.(AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On April 24, several hundred non-commissioned officers marched in the third straight day of protests by military personnel across Bolivia, and more demonstrations are expected April 25. The protesters are demanding talks with Bolivian President Evo Morales to address grievances within the military. Despite the marches, the Bolivian government currently faces no direct threat from the military, and neither do foreign companies operating in the country. The protests would have to become significantly larger and spread across the country for the government to face a notable risk. Analysis Military personnel began demonstrating April 22 after four non-commissioned officers were removed from their posts for insubordination. The officers had presented to the military high command a series of demands, including higher salaries, improved access to health care and better housing. After

Iraqis walk past election campagin billboards in Kahramana Square in Baghdad on April 13.(AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have chosen the April 30 parliamentary elections to launch their strongest challenge yet. New electoral laws have created conditions that could reverse the past decade's trend of large powerful coalitions, weaken sectarian alliances and encourage greater infighting within and among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political groups. This means the election process will probably be longer and more divisive than ever before as an unprecedented number of political actors try to create a fragile power-sharing agreement. As a result, the central government will become weaker, and its authority will be further undermined by increased paralysis in the legislature. This will pose new challenges for Iran as it tries to maintain its influence over a patchwork of political actors leading a new ruling coalition. Iranian i

Combine harvester pours soybeans in a truck in Campo Novo do Parecis, Mato Grosso, Brazil on March 27, 2012.(YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP/GettyImages) Summary On April 25, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff traveled to the northeastern city of Barcarena in Para state to attend the opening ceremony of the Miritituba-Barcarena port complex. Built by Bunge, an agribusiness and food processing company incorporated in Bermuda but based in New York, the $320 million complex has two terminals -- one in Miritituba on the Tapajos River and the other at the Port of Vila do Conde in Barcarena on the Para River. The terminals will handle grain shipments from Brazil's landlocked state of Mato Grosso and ease pressure on Brazil's overloaded Santos and Paranagua ports in the southeast. The project is just one component of Brazil's broader push to open up the "northern exit" for grain shipments to Europe and Asia via the Atlantic Ocean. Analysis To reach Barcarena, Mato Grosso's grain