ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

The PYD (Kurdish Democratic Union Party) has imposed its dominance in northern Syria, but its long-run prospects – like those of the areas it controls – depend on the party’s ability to adopt a more balanced and inclusive strategy. In its latest report, Flight of Icarus? The PYD’s Precarious Rise in Syria , the International Crisis Group examines the implications of the Kurdish group’s military strategy and governance project in the north of the war-torn country. Since mid-2012, when the regime withdrew from the Kurdish areas, the PYD and its armed wing, the People’s Protection Units, have filled the security void and fended off the jihadi opposition. In November 2013 – drawing on its legitimacy as an offshoot of the PKK, the Kurdish Turkish insurgent movement – the PYD proclaimed a transitional administration of Rojava (Western Kurdistan) over three predominantly Kurdish enclaves. Viewed by some as a step toward stability and advancement of Kurdish aspirations, PYD dominance in fact r

Click to Enlarge In recent days, unrest in Ukraine has spread to Odessa , a port located west of Crimea. Odessa marks the southwestern edge of at least some pro-Russia sentiment, though the city is considerably different from the eastern regions . While Odessa is not like the east, it has given Russia a chance to try to weaken Kiev . The first and most important element is for the pro-Russia groups in Odessa to become more organized in an effort to provide some strategic planning and tactical guidance, giving them the potential to be more effective. In the east, Russia accomplished this by inserting covert military and intelligence personnel into the fray to help drive local sympathizers. Nothing indicates that Russia has done this yet in Odessa. Since this strategy involves a small number of people, however, sneaking them into the city would not be too difficult; they could travel through Crimea or Transdniestria, both of which are close to Odessa (some reports stated that an unknown

Election posters with the faces of Jacob Zuma (in yellow), African National Congress and South African president, and Helen Zille (in blue), opposition Democratic Alliance are displayed on May 2.RODGER BOSCH/AFP/Getty Images Summary As South Africa holds national elections May 7, the ruling African National Congress is in a relatively comfortable position. After the elections end, it will focus on grooming President Jacob Zuma's successor as party leader and on relations between party leadership and ethnic voter bases. The party will also turn its attention toward its socio-economic alliance with the Communist Party and the main labor movements, continuing efforts to stabilize the mining sector and working toward its longer-term goal of expanding state control over the South African economy. Analysis Although the African National Congress faces several other parties in the elections, none of the opposing parties will seriously challenge the absolute majority of the African Nationa

Pro-Russian militants clash with police as they storm the police station in the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa on May 4 to free pro-Russian activists arrested May 2.DMITRY SEREBRYAKOV/AFP/Getty Images Summary Eastern Ukraine has been the scene of severe unrest facilitated, or at least encouraged, by Russia. In recent days, this unrest manifested in Odessa, a critical port located in southern Ukraine west of Crimea. Odessa marks the southwestern edge of at least some pro-Russia sentiment, though the city is considerably different from the eastern regions . Odessa, whose historical significance resonates deeply in Russia and whose port is vital to Ukraine's economic livelihood, could be exploited by Moscow as the Russians look for opportunities to cripple Kiev. Pro-Russia groups in Odessa currently lack the same level of organization and skill displayed by separatists in eastern Ukraine , which means that Russia will have to make a substantial investment and carry more risk if it

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (L) meet with Swiss President and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe head Didier Burkhalter in the Kremlin May 7.(ALEXEY DRUZHININ/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On May 7, following a meeting with Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Chairman and Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for separatists in southeastern Ukraine to postpone their referendums on independence scheduled for May 11 in order to allow for dialogue. Moreover, in a rhetorical shift from the Kremlin's recent opposition to Ukraine's plan to hold a presidential election May 25, Putin referred to the scheduled election as a move "in the right direction." Meanwhile, Burkhalter said the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe would offer a proposed "roadmap" on Ukraine later May 7. Stratfor has maintained since the outbreak of the Ukraini

As the European Union braces itself for more timid economic growth and high unemployment, France and Germany are preparing the ground for their next battle: the value of the euro and the role of the European Central Bank. In its spring forecast, which was released May 5, the European Commission said that growth is becoming broader-based in Europe. The headline numbers seem to confirm this statement; this year, the European Union's economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent, and the eurozone's by 1.2 percent. But the statistics hide the deep divisions between Europe's core and its periphery. Germany and its satellite economies (Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia) are expected to see modest growth and decreased unemployment over the next two years. But Mediterranean Europe (Spain, Greece, Italy and even France) is forecast to experience low growth and high unemployment. Even if Greece and Spain see minor economic growth his year, unemployment is expected to decrease on

A pro-Russian activist beats a pro-Ukrainian supporter outside the burned trade union building in Odessa, Ukraine, on May 3. (ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Russia may soon cast its gaze beyond eastern Ukraine to the strategic port city of Odessa. A historically unique and multicultural city, Odessa is vital to Ukrainian commerce, and its internal divisions, not to mention its proximity to Transdniestria, the Moldovan breakaway territory Moscow uses as leverage against Chisinau, may be too tempting for Russia to overlook as the standoff with its eastern neighbor drags on. Analysis Odessa was once a premier warm-water port, serving as the primary point of maritime access for the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. From Odessa, ships can easily traverse the Black Sea, then pass through the Bosporus before reaching the Mediterranean Sea and finally the Atlantic Ocean. Like many port cities, Odessa is home to a variety of ethnic influences. Before succumbing to Russian contro

Members of a Chinese SWAT team stand guard at Guangzhou railway station on May 6.(STR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The third attack on a railway station in just over two months raises new questions about the potential spread of Islamist militancy in China. The May 6 attack in Guangzhou, the capital of the southeastern province of Guangdong, was preceded by an April 30 attack in Urumqi , the capital of the western Uighur Xinjiang Autonomous Region, and a March 1 attack in Kunming , the capital of the southern Yunnan province. The Chinese government linked the first two attacks to alleged Uighur terrorists, but in Kunming and Guangzhou, there are signs that suggest radicalism may spread into the ethnically Han Muslim Hui population, marking a major change in China's internal security dynamic. Analysis Reports surrounding the May 6 attack remain fragmentary, but according to Chinese state and social media, between one and four assailants wearing white clothes and white hats and wielding