ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Throughout the Syrian conflict, the regime has had the strongest control over the predominantly Alawite coastal areas despite brief and isolated rebel offensives , the most recent of which took place in late March. The regime mostly has control over Damascus proper, but rebels are still entrenched in a number of rural areas surrounding the capital, undermining the regime's complete control of the province and tying up vast numbers of loyalist forces. But Aleppo is one of the areas where the regime has had the most difficulty exerting control over the past three years. While the regime and rebels continue to battle for complete control of the city, the surrounding area includes large chunks of rebel-controlled territory, and a combination of Kurds and the two al Qaeda affiliates -- the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and Jabhat al-Nusra -- control the areas in eastern Syria. Given the current conditions, it is unlikely that the Syrian regime will be able to seize complete con

A masked Iraqi policeman on the outskirts of Fallujah on May 7.(AZHER SHALLAL/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The Iraqi military has initiated a slow-moving but potentially significant counterassault on al Qaeda-inspired militants in the western province of Anbar. Iraq's Defense Ministry announced May 9 the commencement of a military offensive that aimed to permanently dislodge militants from Fallujah and possibly Ar Ramadi as well. Already, security forces have attempted to contain militants in Fallujah, potentially laying the groundwork for a final assault that would retake the small portions of the city held by militants since earlier this year. The Iraqi army will have to plan its next steps carefully. Moving in too quickly and without sufficient support from local tribal leadership risks inflaming sectarian tensions, creating a scenario that could end up benefiting the very jihadists Baghdad is trying to eliminate. Analysis Iraqi forces initially responded with small-scale troop dep

A construction worker stands in front of two giant pipes arranged to be welded together near the village of Sajkas, Serbia.(ANDREJ ISAKOVIC/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The European Union remains unwilling to apply meaningful sanctions against Russia. However, as the crisis in Ukraine exacerbates tensions between Moscow and European capitals, a high-visibility pipeline project, South Stream , has become a target for rhetoric. The complex structure of the EU decision-making process for such projects could translate into long delays for South Stream's approval and implementation, especially with the current European Commission nearing the end of its term. But the commission is unique among European institutions in its ability for independent action and will be pragmatic in assessing the Continent's continued need for a solid energy partnership with Russia, its most important supplier. Analysis Energy fuels the relationship between Russia and the European Union. Natural gas flows fro

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Algerian President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika on April 3 in Algiers.(JACQUELYN MARTIN/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Algeria's recent presidential election granted a fourth term to President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika, giving the political establishment additional time to implement constitutional changes as well as political and economic reforms. The president and his allies hope to foster a civilian state that can check the power of the military and security forces . Whether under civilian or military rule, however, security concerns will continue to play a key role in Algerian politics. This fact is underscored by a recent disagreement between Algiers and Washington over the sale of armed unmanned aerial vehicles, known colloquially as drones, and associated technology. Algeria and the United States share concerns about regional militancy and view drones as useful tools in the fight against terrorism. However, deep divisions remain between the two

Members of the Kosovo Security Force in Pristina.(ARMEND NIMANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Kosovo's plans to form an army are creating new tensions between the Albanian majority and the Serb minorities living in the north of the country, as well as between the governments of Kosovo and Serbia. Kosovo will hold early parliamentary elections June 8, with the hope that the new parliament will be able to approve such a controversial move. Since both Kosovo and Serbia are interested in improving their relationships with the European Union, intense negotiations over the creation of a Kosovar army will probably take place in the coming months. Some sporadic episodes of violence could take place in northern Kosovo, but neither Pristina nor Belgrade is interested in a significant escalation of hostilities. Analysis On March 6, Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci proposed the creation of an army to "protect the sovereignty" of Kosovo. According to Thaci, the Kosovar army could have

Sudanese soldiers cheer on a military vehicle in the oil town of Heglig bordering South Sudan on April 24, 2012.(EBRAHIM HAMID/AFP/Getty Images) Summary According to statements from Sudanese and Egyptian officials, Sudan deployed a platoon-sized military force by sea into the port town of Halayeb, located on the Red Sea coast, around May 5. The town is located within the Halayeb triangle, a disputed territory between Egypt and Sudan that is under de facto Egyptian control. However, neither country has given much public attention to the incident because they are focused on expanding their diplomatic relations. Egypt and Sudan have been trying to set up a joint border force; both countries are involved in negotiations relating to the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam; and Egypt is currently attempting to overturn its suspension from the African Union. These ongoing diplomatic initiatives -- along with a lack of demonstrated intent to make the movement a major issue -- mean that events i

Oil tankers wait to refill at the Zawiya oil refinery outside Tripoli in 2011.(MARCO LONGARI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary On May 12, Libya's state-owned National Oil Corp. announced that agreements had been reached with various tribal and militia authorities to resume oil production in western Libya, perhaps within the day. International energy markets have responded optimistically; improved relations between Tripoli and local authorities in the country's western region could increase national oil production by some 500,000 barrels per day, up from the current levels of around 150,000 barrels per day. Renewed production would provide much-needed income for the weak central government in Tripoli, as well as energy relief for the city as summer temperatures begin to rise. However, Libya's political environment is still not conducive to long-term stability, and the broader competition for authority is far from over. Fluctuations in Libyan oil production in the coming months are l

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) and Ugandan Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa in Moscow on May 12.(YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Uganda has long relied on purchases of Russian weapons to fuel a regional strategy based on an enduring ability to intervene militarily in its neighbors' disputes and to sometimes act as a regional arbiter. Ugandan Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa's three-day visit to Moscow, which started on May 11, will focus in part on securing continued military equipment and training from Russia. Energy, however, will be the most pressing topic during Kutesa's meetings with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Uganda wants to build an oil refinery and a Russian state-owned consortium is one of six finalists for the contract. Uganda wants to use its relatively large pools of oil reserves to position itself as a hub for fuel products in the Great Lakes region, thus countering Kenyan influence within the East African Community . Analysis Kenya and U