ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

An Egyptian man walks under posters of Egypt's former army chief and leading presidential candidate Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on May 12.(KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Former Egyptian military chief Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to win the May 26-27 presidential election in Egypt, the first since the July 2013 coup that ousted the country's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi. The Egyptian military is counting on al-Sisi's presidency to bring stability to the world's most populous Arab state, and through that stability, preserve the military's privileged place in Egyptian politics. However, there are more challenges now than when previous military-backed leaders ran the country. Al-Sisi lacks an established party to rule through and is contending with multiparty politics, rising jihadism, an angry and alienated Muslim Brotherhood and an economy in disarray and dependent on other countries for support. Even if al-Sis

Members and vehicles of the Al Qaqa brigade from Zentan get ready to vacate the premises of their Tripoli quarter on November 21, 2013.(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The May 18 assault on parliamentary facilities by the Zentan-based Al Qaqa and Sawaaq brigades has left Tripoli in an uneasy stalemate, with Libya's many political, regional and militia leaders scrambling to assess their options. In solidarity with retired Gen. Khalifa Hifter's attempts to oust radical Islamist elements from the eastern city of Benghazi earlier in the week, the Zentan militia sought to arrest politicians affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and block their participation in government. The push by fighters from Zentan into Tripoli and Hifter's own incursion into Benghazi have been inconclusive; for now, neither Hifter's forces nor militias willing to align with him are in control of either of Libya's key urban centers. But with the future of the transitional government, the

Analysis The Thai army declared martial law May 20. Details are scarce at the moment, but media reports indicate that soldiers have deployed to strategic locations throughout Bangkok and seized at least one television station. Earlier in the day, Thai army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha had warned troops to be on high alert for continued violence after a series of political intimidation attacks in Bangkok, threats from rival protest groups (which had reportedly moved into closer vicinity to each other and threatened to raise conflict in the streets), rumors of rogue movements by the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachinburi, and even claims that a recent spate of bombings in the restive deep south had occurred to take advantage of the lack of clear authority in Bangkok. The martial law order follows nearly two weeks of heightened uncertainty after the Constitutional Court ruled to remove former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and several members of her Cabinet from office. Since that time

Recently, Russian leaders and media reports claimed that China could invest more money in Crimea . Specifically, Chinese companies may help build a bridge across the Kerch Strait, creating a new link between Crimea and the Russian mainland. The Chinese may also help expand various Crimean ports, build solar power facilities, create special economic zones for manufacturing or even participate in other energy and transportation infrastructure projects. Russia has plenty of reasons to invite Chinese investment in Crimea, but ultimately Moscow wants to create a sense of strategic solidarity. Some Russian commentators have expressed obvious economic doubts about the proposed projects, which, in some cases, may not yield financial returns. In other cases, Moscow may seek to protect its own companies from Chinese competition, seeing as Russia will want to benefit from exports to the region and from heavy industry and construction contracts there. Commentators have also raised familiar com

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) in Sochi on Feb. 8.(MIKHAIL KLIMENTIEV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The recent Russo-Japanese warming of relations has come under pressure during the Ukrainian crisis as Japan seeks to show solidarity with the West and Russia courts Chinese economic cooperation. But neither Tokyo nor Moscow wants to miss the rare opportunity to work together now that each has something the other needs. Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Akitaka Saiki denied that Japan would suspend negotiations with Russia over the disputed southern Kuril Islands and a peace treaty, Russia's Itar-Tass reported May 12. Previous rumors indicated that Tokyo would suspend talks temporarily amid the Ukrainian conflict, according to Kyodo News. The latest round of territorial and peace talks began in April 2013 and is part of the larger initiative between Moscow and Tokyo to improve relations for the sake of broader national security and

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a speech in Sevastopol, Crimea, on May 9.(YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The largest regional political reshuffle in years is underway in Russia as President Vladimir Putin works to ensure that he has only trusted governors in position for each region. Putin's concern with the regions comes at a time when his popularity in the country is extremely high. Putin is less concerned with Russia's current stability than its stability over the next few years and beyond . Understanding the country's inherent vulnerability, the Russian president knows that having loyal allies in control of the regions is one of the most important factors in the Kremlin's continued control of the country. Analysis Because Russia's immense size precludes the Kremlin from running each region directly, the country was set up as a federation. Today's Russia is split into 83 regions of all shapes and sizes, categorized as oblasts, republics, krais,

Supporters of BJP leader Narendra Modi at a political rally on May 10. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images) Analysis After five weeks of parliamentary elections, held across India from April 7 to May 12, the Bharatiya Janata Party swept to formal victory May 16. Media reports indicate that the BJP is expected, along with its National Democratic Alliance partners, to take 543 of the obtainable seats in the legislature. A majority requires 272 seats. The bloc's victory will make the BJP's Narendra Modi the next prime minister. The results of India's parliamentary elections come at a critical time for New Delhi. While India deals with a slowing economy, the international community expects change. This leaves India's future government with the daunting task of generating economic reform while also securing Indian interests abroad. Modi is known domestically and internationally for eschewing the bureaucratic bottlenecks that have historically obstruct

Lt. General Khalifa Haftar at a press conference on May 17.(AFP/Getty Images) Analysis Fighting erupted in Libya's capital city on May 18 when a militia loyal to Lt. General Khalifa Hafter reportedly attacked the Libyan Parliament. Earlier in the week Hafter-affiliated militias launched an operation against a February 17 Martyr's Brigade base in Benghazi. The government-aligned Martyr's Brigade is considered one of the biggest and best-armed Islamist militias in Libya. If the reports are confirmed, the assault on the Parliament in Tripoli means that Hafter’s forces are now engaged in battle across Libya’s two traditional seats of power. It is quite possible that Hafter is attempting to consolidate power in Libya, hoping to bring an end to the chaos that has wracked the country since the overthrow of the Gadhafi regime in 2011. It is believed that Hafter's broader intent is to push the Islamists out of Benghazi and oust the General National Congress from Tripoli, effecti