ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

By George Friedman We have long argued that the Arab-Israeli conflict is inherently insoluble . Now, for the third time in recent years, a war is being fought in Gaza. The Palestinians are firing rockets into Israel with minimal effect. The Israelis are carrying out a broader operation to seal tunnels along the Gaza-Israel boundary. Like the previous wars, the current one will settle nothing. The Israelis want to destroy Hamas' rockets. They can do so only if they occupy Gaza and remain there for an extended period while engineers search for tunnels and bunkers throughout the territory. This would generate Israeli casualties from Hamas guerrillas fighting on their own turf with no room for retreat. So Hamas will continue to launch rockets, but between the extreme inaccuracy of the rockets and Israel's Iron Dome defense system, the group will inflict little damage to the Israelis. War Without a Military Outcome The most interesting aspect of this war is that both sides apparentl

Shia loyal to the al-Houthi movement ride past Yemeni soldiers near Yaz, Yemen, in May. (MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/Getty Images) Summary The success of a rebel campaign in northern Yemen is threatening to destabilize the already weak and overwhelmed government in Sanaa. After capturing the city of Amran, a mere 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the capital, in early July, the rebels from the al-Houthi tribe are in their strongest position yet. The Yemeni government is developing plans to divide the country into six federal regions, and the rebels believe this is their chance to claim territory for the future bargaining. The central government is nearly powerless to fend off the rebels; its forces are already stretched thin. Neighboring Saudi Arabia has intervened in Yemen before and still supports Sunni tribes in the north, but the risk of inciting a Shiite backlash or creating space for jihadists to move in could deter another intervention. Analysis Followers of Zaidi Islam, a branch of Shiism,

The European Union on Tuesday announced its strongest round of sanctions against Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. The sanctions are meant to show Moscow that the Europeans are willing to punish Russia for supporting the rebellion in eastern Ukraine. But they are also meant to contain political fragmentation within the European Union at a time when countries in Central and Eastern Europe are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with what they perceive as a lack of action from the bloc's largest economies. A few hours after the announcement, the United States also adopted additional sanctions against Russia. Europe's sanctions prohibit state-owned Russian banks from buying or selling bonds and equity in the European Union, place an embargo on new arms sales, prohibit exports of dual use goods (software and technology that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to Russia and restrict the export of certain energy-related equipment and technology t

Americans exchange diamond rings as part of the engagement process, because in 1938 De Beers decided that they would like us to. Prior to a stunningly successful marketing campaign in 1938 Americans occasionally exchanged engagement rings, but wasn't a pervasive occurrence. Not only is the demand for diamonds a marketing invention, but diamonds aren't actually that rare. Only by carefully restricting the supply has De Beers kept the price of a diamond high. It's the equivalent of some company restricting the supply of aluminum so instead of it actually being available and dirty cheap it's instead sold in jewelry for more expensive than platinum. It's absolutely absurd. A company called De Beers, who has a monopoly, artificially restricts the supply of diamond to keep the prices obscenely high. Not only are they artificially high but they are a worthless investment. Retail jewelers prefer not to buy back diamonds from customers because they sell them at a 100 to 200

Click to Enlarge On July 21, Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced he was deploying 1,000 members of the Texas National Guard to the Mexican border to help strengthen border security. The move is the latest in a chain of events concerning the emigration of Central American minors that has become heavily publicized and politicized. This type of hype and politicization of the U.S.-Mexico border is not new and has surfaced at irregular intervals for decades now. But lost in all the media hype over this "border crisis" is the fact that in 2013 overall immigration was down significantly from historical levels. According to U.S. Border Patrol apprehension statistics, there were only 420,789 apprehensions in fiscal year 2013 compared to 1,160,395 in 2004. In fact, from fiscal years 1976 to 2010, apprehensions never dropped below 500,000. During that same period, the Border Patrol averaged 1,083,495 apprehensions per year compared to just 420,789 last year. Of course, apprehen

by George Friedman The commotion surrounding Iraqi Kurdistan's ongoing feud with Iraq's central government spread to the Texas Gulf Coast over the weekend. The U.S. Coast Guard, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security and National Security Council were sent scrambling when a tanker tried to offload 100,000 barrels of Kurdish crude. The sale of the United Kalavryta's cargo would mark the second time (the first was sold to an Israeli buyer) that Iraq's Kurdish leadership has sold crude oil in complete defiance of Baghdad . The Iraqi central government maintains that all Iraqi crude must be sold and distributed by federal authorities in order to maintain the territorial integrity of the country. Baghdad's position is endorsed by the United States and Iran but challenged by Turkey, which has backed the Kurdistan Regional Government's transactions so far and is reportedly loading a fifth tanker at the port of Ceyhan at the time of writing. Meanwhile, ano

A resident of Lysychansk, a city in eastern Ukraine, crosses the street past Ukrainian military armored personnel carriers July 27, 2014.(GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Ukrainian forces have made significant progress toward their goal of isolating the separatist-controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. After a week of fighting, the military regained control of Debaltseve, a strategic town at the junction of the main E40 and E50 highways. It also now controls Shakhtarsk and is making gains in Torez, located east of Donetsk, and Lutuhyne, a town to the southwest of Luhansk. This puts Kiev's forces in control of much of the territory between Donetsk and Luhansk, allowing them to prevent the movement of arms and personnel between the two militant strongholds. Analysis Despite its recent successes, Kiev continues to face challenges in its attempts to suppress the pro-Russia separatist movement in eastern Ukraine. The government has recently ramped up its military efforts, mov

German infantry in training a month before the start of World War I, June 30, 1914. (Topical Press Agency/Getty Images) Summary On July 28, 1914, exactly one month after Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife were shot dead, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. The stage was set for World War I, an inevitable result of decades of political maneuvering, militarization, alliances and planning for a conflict that would shatter the great European epoch, laying waste to empires and ascendant nations. Analysis At the heart of World War I was the rise of Germany and the question of its place in the European balance of power. Prussian statesman Otto Von Bismarck had painstakingly crafted a modern, unified German nation through fire and blood, ensuring its survival through shrewd realpolitik diplomacy. The new unified Germany remained wary of potential threats from east and west, a concern reciprocated by nearby states, which harbored deep-seated concerns and fears over