Pakistan's Taliban Leader Killed in Drone Strike

Analysis

The death of Pakistani Taliban chief Hakeemullah Mehsud in a U.S. drone strike reported Nov. 1 could give Islamabad more leverage in its eventual negotiations with the militant group. Mehsud's death is certain to weaken the Pakistani Taliban, which must now begin a search for a new leader while also fixing its lapses in operational security that allowed the death of its leader. The killing provides Islamabad with an opportunity to further degrade the group's capabilities before it can reconstitute itself, though political incoherence in Islamabad will prevent the Pakistanis from taking full advantage of the opportunity.

Mehsud, the leader of Pakistan's Taliban rebel coalition also known as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, was reported killed numerous times in recent years. This time, however, members of Mehsud's family, the Tehrik-i-Taliban and Pakistani security officials have confirmed his demise, along with that of a number of Mehsud's senior aides with him at the time of the strike in North Waziristan.

Mehsud's death comes a few days after Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif called for an end to the drone strikes in a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington. The overwhelming majority of Pakistanis oppose U.S. drone strikes because they view the activity as a violation of their country's sovereignty. Even though Mehsud had ordered hundreds of attacks in Pakistan that have claimed tens of thousands of lives, the Taliban leader's death has already sparked controversy in the country, with many commentators and politicians suggesting that the killing has sabotaged the efforts to negotiate with the jihadist rebels. Earlier on Nov. 1, Sharif reportedly remarked that talks (which have unanimous backing from all political forces) with the Tehrik-i-Taliban had begun, though the militant group's spokesman denied any such development.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban chief's death represents a major opportunity for the Pakistani government to weaken the jihadist rebel force. Mehsud was killed only a few months after his deputy, Wali-ur-Rehman, was killed in a similar drone strike, and this turnover has created a leadership crisis for the group since it has no obvious replacement for Mehsud, Wali-ur-Rehman or Baitullah Mehsud -- the founder of the group who was killed in a drone strike in 2009. A struggle over leadership is now very likely within the group, which will also be focused on addressing the vulnerabilities that allowed the whereabouts of Hakeemullah to be known to U.S. intelligence. It is even possible that the group may split into factions that fight among themselves in the power vacuum Mehsud has left behind.

If Islamabad were to attack the group now at its moment of weakness, it could contribute to an even stronger position for the Pakistani government whenever negotiations do begin. However, given the government's domination by right-wing forces that oppose any strong stance against the Tehrik-i-Taliban, widespread public opposition to any major offensive against the group and the controversy over U.S. drone strikes, Pakistan is likely to squander the opportunity made available by Hakeemullah's elimination at the hands of U.S. drone strikes.

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