Detainees as a Bargaining Chip in U.S.-Iranian Negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Nov. 24. (ALEXANDER KLEIN/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

The resurfacing in Iranian and U.S. media of the case of missing U.S. citizen Robert Levinson offers a small but revealing snapshot of the ongoing thaw of ties between Washington and Tehran. In a news conference Dec. 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham reiterated Iran's claim that Levinson is no longer in the country. Afkham went on to mention Iran's concern over Iranian detainees in the United States -- a sign that Tehran may be pursuing a prisoner swap with Washington as part of broader negotiations.

Analysis
Iran holds the United States responsible for the detainment of several Iranians, some of whom could be exchanged for Levinson. As the United States and Iran continue negotiations toward a conclusive deal on Iran's nuclear program, both sides will bring tangential issues such as this to the table, attempting to exact as many concessions from the other as possible.

The case of Levinson, a former FBI agent, has resurfaced occasionally in the U.S. and Iranian media since he disappeared in Iran in 2007. New images of Levinson were published by media outlets in January. Most recently, on Dec. 12, The Washington Post's Adam Goldman, who has been investigating the case for some time, released an article indicating that Levinson had been secretly working for the CIA in a rogue operation before his capture. The report prompted renewed questions about Levinson's role, his activities in Iran, his safety and his whereabouts.

The Prospects for Levinson's Return from Iran

Iran has steadfastly denied any involvement in the Levinson case, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif emphasized that Levinson is not incarcerated in Iran -- and that even if he were, a rogue group, and not the government, is holding him. Nevertheless, U.S. authorities insist that Iran has information on Levinson's location, and there is widespread speculation that Iran is holding Levinson as leverage for future negotiations.

Afkham could have made a routine reiteration of Iran's stance. Her statement became more interesting, though, when she noted that during a phone call with U.S. President Barack Obama, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani voiced his concern over Iranian detainees in the United States. This mention could have been Iran's way of setting up a potential exchange.

According to Iran, the United States is currently holding at least 10 Iranian detainees in U.S. prisons. The detainees include Iranian businessmen, engineers and individuals who allegedly were attempting to smuggle U.S. weapons and technology to Iran. Tehran is particularly interested in two detainees: Ali-Reza Asgari, a retired Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who may have defected, and Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, who did in fact defect. If these individuals are being held in the United States, Washington will almost certainly not return them to Iran.

There is substantial controversy surrounding the fate of Asgari, who disappeared in Turkey in 2006. Some believe he is in an Israeli prison, some believe he was killed at the hands of Mossad, and others say he defected. If the latter is true, Washington would not likely agree to release him -- or the defected nuclear scientist -- because such a move would risk discouraging future defections.

With Asgari and the nuclear scientist off the table, Tehran would need to look for an equitable trade, which could be found among the list of other Iranian detainees. Iran may push for the release of Amir Nazmi, who was arrested on charges of conducting business with Iranian companies under U.S. sanctions and providing software illegally to Iran. Another potential exchange could be for Hassan Saeed Keshari, who pleaded guilty to charges of trying to send Iran parts for F-14 fighters, C-130 cargo planes and AH-1 attack helicopters. Still another option is Amir Hossein Ardebili, who was sentenced to a five-year prison term on charges of shipping U.S. military technology to Iran.

It is not known whether Levinson will be released, nor whether a deal will be reached. But as the thaw in U.S.-Iranian relations continues to evolve, both sides can be expected to bring up side issues that, if achieved, could be seen as victories by domestic audiences. Both governments have tough critics to appease at home, and both sides will work to exact as many concessions as possible from the other in efforts to gain the upper hand during negotiations.

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, specif

ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Search This Blog