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Detainees as a Bargaining Chip in U.S.-Iranian Negotiations



Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Nov. 24. (ALEXANDER KLEIN/AFP/Getty Images

Summary


The resurfacing in Iranian and U.S. media of the case of missing U.S. citizen Robert Levinson offers a small but revealing snapshot of the ongoing thaw of ties between Washington and Tehran. In a news conference Dec. 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham reiterated Iran's claim that Levinson is no longer in the country. Afkham went on to mention Iran's concern over Iranian detainees in the United States -- a sign that Tehran may be pursuing a prisoner swap with Washington as part of broader negotiations.

Analysis
Iran holds the United States responsible for the detainment of several Iranians, some of whom could be exchanged for Levinson. As the United States and Iran continue negotiations toward a conclusive deal on Iran's nuclear program, both sides will bring tangential issues such as this to the table, attempting to exact as many concessions from the other as possible.

The case of Levinson, a former FBI agent, has resurfaced occasionally in the U.S. and Iranian media since he disappeared in Iran in 2007. New images of Levinson were published by media outlets in January. Most recently, on Dec. 12, The Washington Post's Adam Goldman, who has been investigating the case for some time, released an article indicating that Levinson had been secretly working for the CIA in a rogue operation before his capture. The report prompted renewed questions about Levinson's role, his activities in Iran, his safety and his whereabouts.




The Prospects for Levinson's Return from Iran

Iran has steadfastly denied any involvement in the Levinson case, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif emphasized that Levinson is not incarcerated in Iran -- and that even if he were, a rogue group, and not the government, is holding him. Nevertheless, U.S. authorities insist that Iran has information on Levinson's location, and there is widespread speculation that Iran is holding Levinson as leverage for future negotiations.

Afkham could have made a routine reiteration of Iran's stance. Her statement became more interesting, though, when she noted that during a phone call with U.S. President Barack Obama, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani voiced his concern over Iranian detainees in the United States. This mention could have been Iran's way of setting up a potential exchange.

According to Iran, the United States is currently holding at least 10 Iranian detainees in U.S. prisons. The detainees include Iranian businessmen, engineers and individuals who allegedly were attempting to smuggle U.S. weapons and technology to Iran. Tehran is particularly interested in two detainees: Ali-Reza Asgari, a retired Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who may have defected, and Iranian nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, who did in fact defect. If these individuals are being held in the United States, Washington will almost certainly not return them to Iran.

There is substantial controversy surrounding the fate of Asgari, who disappeared in Turkey in 2006. Some believe he is in an Israeli prison, some believe he was killed at the hands of Mossad, and others say he defected. If the latter is true, Washington would not likely agree to release him -- or the defected nuclear scientist -- because such a move would risk discouraging future defections.

With Asgari and the nuclear scientist off the table, Tehran would need to look for an equitable trade, which could be found among the list of other Iranian detainees. Iran may push for the release of Amir Nazmi, who was arrested on charges of conducting business with Iranian companies under U.S. sanctions and providing software illegally to Iran. Another potential exchange could be for Hassan Saeed Keshari, who pleaded guilty to charges of trying to send Iran parts for F-14 fighters, C-130 cargo planes and AH-1 attack helicopters. Still another option is Amir Hossein Ardebili, who was sentenced to a five-year prison term on charges of shipping U.S. military technology to Iran.

It is not known whether Levinson will be released, nor whether a deal will be reached. But as the thaw in U.S.-Iranian relations continues to evolve, both sides can be expected to bring up side issues that, if achieved, could be seen as victories by domestic audiences. Both governments have tough critics to appease at home, and both sides will work to exact as many concessions as possible from the other in efforts to gain the upper hand during negotiations.

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