Japan's Response to China's New Air Defense Zone

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China's declaration of a new air defense identification zone has added a new dimension to regional tensions over territorial and international space that seems likely to remain in place. The general risk of an incident, air collision or crash has significantly increased due to the disagreement over the legitimacy of China's zone, uncertainty over its enforcement, and the underlying fears over future administrative control and sovereignty. Japan fears that whatever it does, China will take further steps to build its presence in the disputed territories and whittle away the status quo of Japanese control. For that reason, Japan is also likely to continue to monitor its air defense zone energetically. The rising trend of Japanese Air Self-Defense Force jets scrambling to intercept aircraft breaching its zone looks set to continue. This trend has been mirrored by China, with the rising prominence of Japanese interceptions of Chinese aircraft overtaking those of Russian aircraft.

In the meantime, Tokyo is attempting to organize regional opposition to China's latest move. Japan is in the process of referring the case to the United Nations' International Civil Aviation Organization, and it may attempt to use the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit it is hosting in December to warn China against regulating its air defense zone in a way that raises a regional security threat. Tokyo will make other similar efforts, but due to divisions over China within the Southeast Asian bloc, it will face difficulties in trying to forge a unified and forceful Asian message. The combination of such disunity, Taiwanese disagreements and South Korean adjustments to its zone may trouble Japan's efforts to keep the regional focus on potential threats from China.

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