Belarusian Communist Party supporters carry red flags during a rally in Minsk on Nov. 7, 2011. VICTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images
Summary
Ukraine is in the midst of a political crisis over its future relationship with the European Union and Russia, and tensions over the same issue have risen in Moldova and Georgia. However, one country in the region has been very quiet on this matter: Belarus. Belarus is unique in the European periphery for its lack of any strong pro-Western movements and its substantial ties with Russia, which have only strengthened in recent years. As long as the Belarusian regime is not seriously threatened, Minsk will continue to eschew ties with the West and remain closely aligned with Moscow while serving as a platform for potential Russian retaliation against the West.
Analysis
Like Ukraine, Belarus is a country in the borderlands of Europe and Russia and historically has been subject to competing influence from both sides. Belarus was, along with Ukraine, part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth from the 14th century to the 18th century and was subject to considerable Polish cultural and political influence during this time. However, following the partition of Poland at the end of the 18th century, Belarus was incorporated into the Russian Empire. Ukraine was subsequently split between Russian control in the east and European control in the west (first under the Austrians and then again under the Polish), but Belarus was subsumed completely into the Russian sphere of influence until World War I. The country then underwent a process of Russification and was one of the founding republics of the Soviet Union in 1922, and all of the territory of modern-day Belarus was incorporated into the Soviet Union following World War II.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus did not undergo the same kind of severe economic changes in the transition to capitalism seen in Ukraine and even Russia. These disruptions led to significant dislocations and the rise of a class of oligarchs in both countries. Belarus adopted an approach of "market socialism," which retained much of the country's Soviet-era economic policies such as price controls and subsidization of state enterprises. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994, instilled the market socialism model. His leadership style is very reminiscent of the Soviet era, not only in economic policy but also in the highly centralized political system that does not tolerate opposition elements and is reinforced by a strong security apparatus.
The system of government in Belarus has made it easy for Minsk and Moscow to maintain a strong relationship. Belarus and Russia formed a Union State in 1994, and Belarus was one of the founding members of Russia's Customs Union in 2010. Belarus is strongly integrated with Russia in the energy and industrial spheres, and Russia regularly provides Belarus with financial assistance in the form of cheap natural gas prices and loans, most recently offering $450 million to Minsk in December 2013.
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Resistance to the West
The tight economic integration between Belarus and Russia, combined with Lukashenko's intolerance of the opposition, has created significant obstacles to Western influence and penetration into the country such as that in neighboring Ukraine. The European Union's Eastern Partnership program, which spearheaded key integration agreements with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, has not made any headway in Belarus. Belarusian officials have even criticized the initiative, calling it a tool for weakening the grip of the Lukashenko regime. Belarus has also been at odds with Poland and Lithuania for their support and funding of pro-European opposition groups in the country, many of which are banned in Minsk and therefore operate out of Vilnius and Warsaw.
In response to the West's efforts, Belarus has only strengthened its integration with Russia. This is especially the case in the security sphere; Belarus is a member of Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia's rival military bloc to NATO), and the two countries regularly stage joint military drills, including the Zapad exercises, which simulated an invasion of Poland and the Baltic states. In 2013, Belarus agreed to host a new Russian airbase. A Russian fighter jet unit arrived at the base at the end of that year as part of the two countries' integrated air defense network.
Despite their close economic and security integration, Russia and Belarus' relationship has included spats and disagreements. The two countries were at odds in the initial stages of the Customs Union over energy prices, leading to a brief natural gas cutoff. Russia and Belarus also disagreed over their joint potash consortium, Belarusian Potash Company, which led to the dissolution of the consortium and has yet to be resolved. However, such disagreements historically have been temporary and have not threatened the broad strategic alignment between the two countries. Despite attempts by the European Union and Western countries to take advantage of such rifts, Minsk remains under Moscow's umbrella. Although disputes with Russia had caused Belarus in previous years to attempt to re-engage with the European Union, such attempts have diminished over time, and Minsk has instead looked to China as a supplementary economic partner.
Little Progress Expected
Despite crowds in the tens to hundreds of thousands in neighboring Ukraine, there has been very little pro-Western protest activity in Belarus. The last time there were significant opposition demonstrations in Belarus was after the disputed presidential elections in December 2010. Security forces cracked down swiftly on these protests, which never meaningfully re-emerged (though the crackdown did lead to sanctions by the European Union and United States, which isolated Belarus from the West even more). Since then, the only significant protests in the country came in response to a financial crisis in 2011, but economic conditions have ameliorated with financial assistance from Russia. With a new presidential election not scheduled until the end of 2015, it is unlikely that Belarus will experience significant political instability in the near term, barring any new economic shocks.
Thus, the West is expected to make very little headway in Belarus. The country will remain largely absent from the EU-Russian competition that has intensified in Ukraine and elsewhere in the region. If anything, Belarus will serve as a platform for further Russian power projection into the region -- especially in the security sphere -- in the event that Moscow feels the need to respond to any potential Western advances in Ukraine or elsewhere.
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