Between Russia and Ukraine, a Standoff Arises Over Crimea

Protesters wave Russian flags in front of the Sevastopol city hall Feb. 24 in Ukraine. (VASILIY BATANOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

After being voted into office today, the Ukrainian interim government is already facing a standoff with Russia following the occupation of the Crimean parliament by a group of Russian supporters. The new government is absorbed with trying to avoid a deeper economic and financial crisis and trying to get the different factions that make up the interim government to work together on short notice. Kiev has little capacity to counter Russia's moves in Crimea and thus will try to avoid a confrontation between those in Crimea welcoming a Russian intervention and groups defending the unity of Ukraine. In fact, Kiev is unlikely to seek a confrontation even if Moscow further increases its military presence in Crimea.

Considering the upheaval in Ukraine's security forces and military in recent weeks, it is unclear how much control the government has over forces that could be used to influence events in Crimea.

Analysis

According to the chairman of Crimea's Council of Ministers, Anatoly Mogilyov, approximately 120 gunmen early Feb. 27 seized the parliament building in the city of Simferopol, stoking tensions in the already volatile peninsula. The men appear to be ethnic Russian separatists and opponents of the recently formed government in Kiev and have reportedly raised the Russian flag over the parliament. Ukrainian security personnel and interior troops have been placed on alert and have cordoned off the area. Demonstrators were earlier gathered outside parliament, some in favor of the new government in Kiev and others voicing opposition and chanting pro-Russian slogans. The occupation of a government building in Crimea leaves Kiev and the West in a difficult position because protesters opposed to former President Viktor Yanukovich themselves set the precedent for such action when they occupied government buildings in Kiev before Yanukovich was toppled. If it chooses to, Russia can use this to justify its support for the protesters in Crimea.

Click to Enlarge

Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov condemned the takeover of Crimea's parliament. He also appealed to Moscow to adhere to previous agreements on the status of Russian forces in the peninsula and not to interfere outside their bases in Crimea. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had said Feb. 26 that the Russian military would take steps to ensure the security of its forces and bases in Crimea. A short time later, columns of Russian armored personnel carriers were seen around the village of Ukromne heading toward Simferopol as the Russians extended a cordon of security originating from their main naval base in Sevastopol.

In a move that could upset the delicate balance in Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine deemed the Russian move a violation. According to reports, there are now Security Service forces on the move to intercept the Russian columns and prevent them from entering Simferopol. Subsequent reports indicated that the Russian column turned around at a traffic police check point and returned toward the Russian base. If true, it would indicate that Russia is taking steps to avoid a confrontation with Ukrainian forces.

The Strategic Importance of Crimea

The events in Crimea and the unexpected Russian military exercises in Russia's Western and Central military districts have triggered an international response. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry late Feb. 26 called on Russia to accept Ukraine's territorial integrity. The following morning, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen expressed concern about the events, and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged Moscow not to take action in the region. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned that the seizure of government buildings by armed men in Crimea could lead to a regional conflict.

NATO defense ministers met Feb. 27 to discuss the situation, but beyond words of warning, the West has little to offer in terms of support for Ukraine should Russia decide to take more control in Crimea.

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re...

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has ...

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, sp...

ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Search This Blog