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Between Russia and Ukraine, a Standoff Arises Over Crimea



Protesters wave Russian flags in front of the Sevastopol city hall Feb. 24 in Ukraine. (VASILIY BATANOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary


After being voted into office today, the Ukrainian interim government is already facing a standoff with Russia following the occupation of the Crimean parliament by a group of Russian supporters. The new government is absorbed with trying to avoid a deeper economic and financial crisis and trying to get the different factions that make up the interim government to work together on short notice. Kiev has little capacity to counter Russia's moves in Crimea and thus will try to avoid a confrontation between those in Crimea welcoming a Russian intervention and groups defending the unity of Ukraine. In fact, Kiev is unlikely to seek a confrontation even if Moscow further increases its military presence in Crimea.

Considering the upheaval in Ukraine's security forces and military in recent weeks, it is unclear how much control the government has over forces that could be used to influence events in Crimea.

Analysis


According to the chairman of Crimea's Council of Ministers, Anatoly Mogilyov, approximately 120 gunmen early Feb. 27 seized the parliament building in the city of Simferopol, stoking tensions in the already volatile peninsula. The men appear to be ethnic Russian separatists and opponents of the recently formed government in Kiev and have reportedly raised the Russian flag over the parliament. Ukrainian security personnel and interior troops have been placed on alert and have cordoned off the area. Demonstrators were earlier gathered outside parliament, some in favor of the new government in Kiev and others voicing opposition and chanting pro-Russian slogans. The occupation of a government building in Crimea leaves Kiev and the West in a difficult position because protesters opposed to former President Viktor Yanukovich themselves set the precedent for such action when they occupied government buildings in Kiev before Yanukovich was toppled. If it chooses to, Russia can use this to justify its support for the protesters in Crimea.

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Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov condemned the takeover of Crimea's parliament. He also appealed to Moscow to adhere to previous agreements on the status of Russian forces in the peninsula and not to interfere outside their bases in Crimea. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had said Feb. 26 that the Russian military would take steps to ensure the security of its forces and bases in Crimea. A short time later, columns of Russian armored personnel carriers were seen around the village of Ukromne heading toward Simferopol as the Russians extended a cordon of security originating from their main naval base in Sevastopol.

In a move that could upset the delicate balance in Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine deemed the Russian move a violation. According to reports, there are now Security Service forces on the move to intercept the Russian columns and prevent them from entering Simferopol. Subsequent reports indicated that the Russian column turned around at a traffic police check point and returned toward the Russian base. If true, it would indicate that Russia is taking steps to avoid a confrontation with Ukrainian forces.



The Strategic Importance of Crimea

The events in Crimea and the unexpected Russian military exercises in Russia's Western and Central military districts have triggered an international response. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry late Feb. 26 called on Russia to accept Ukraine's territorial integrity. The following morning, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen expressed concern about the events, and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged Moscow not to take action in the region. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned that the seizure of government buildings by armed men in Crimea could lead to a regional conflict.

NATO defense ministers met Feb. 27 to discuss the situation, but beyond words of warning, the West has little to offer in terms of support for Ukraine should Russia decide to take more control in Crimea.

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