In Ukraine, a Military Reshuffle Raises Questions

Riot police take down a Ukrainian flag hung by protesters on a streetlight in Independence Square, Kiev, on Feb. 19. (BRENDAN HOFFMAN/Getty Images)

Analysis

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich fired Commander of the Armed Forces and Chief of the General Staff Volodymyr Zaman on Feb. 19, replacing him with Navy Commander Vice Adm. Yuriy Ilyin. The reshuffle comes as Yanukovich is facing a decision about whether to use the Ukrainian military to quell uprisings across the country.

The Ukrainian government thus far has restrained from using the military to crack down on protests, which briefly intensified Feb. 18 in Kiev. So far, police forces have been relatively successful in containing more radical protesters within Independence Square, also known as Maidan, but have not yet attempted to clear them -- something for which Yanukovich could theoretically use the military. Rather than use the military, Yanukovich has capitalized on the protests' radicalization, increasing sentiment against the protests in Kiev. However, while the police have contained the violent protests for now, it does not mean they will remain controllable.

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Even more worrying for the Ukrainian government are the anti-government uprisings in four western Ukrainian cities -- Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhhorod and Ternopil -- where there have been protests and attempts (some successful) to storm government buildings. More important have been the large protests in the city of Lviv, in which the opposition has declared its independence from the ruling government. The situation in Lviv is different than the anti-government protests in Kiev and the other cities because the opposition there is not looking to topple the government but instead secede from the country. While trying to neutralize protests in Kiev, the government faces an equally pressing need to put down the uprising in Lviv, a city that historically has been integrated with Europe.

Yanukovich's plan so far has been to capitalize on growing criticism of the protests outside of Kiev to neutralize them. This plan depends on his ability to rely on the military to follow orders if the situation escalates beyond the police's control. In trying to recast the protesters as militants that needed to be dealt with through force, the government announced its right to carry out counterterrorism operations nationwide. This could employ the services of the military.

The government's need to maintain a strong and cohesive military makes the sudden reshuffling at the top a red flag. It could even be a sign that the military or its leaders are not unified behind Yanukovich's plans. There has already been dissent among the police and interior forces in Lviv when they retreated from the protesters and surrendered their equipment and weapons. In addition, the local heads of the security services in Lviv and neighboring Volyn regions were replaced in early February. The loyalty of the police, military and security forces is critical to Yanukovich's position and ability to maintain pressure on the protest movement. It is also crucial to any plans the president has to crack down in Kiev and regain control of the west. So a reshuffle at the top could be an indication of a deeper rift -- something Stratfor will be watching closely.

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