Changes in Cocaine Smuggling Tactics

The number of flights carrying cocaine through Honduras, the most common gateway to Central America for U.S.-bound cocaine, has dropped sharply. In fact, no aircraft have been intercepted in 2014. While increased attention from U.S. and Honduran authorities certainly has contributed to the decline in aircraft seizures, other evidence suggests that drug traffickers are simply starting to transport their wares by sea rather than by air.

Cocaine has flowed through Central America to the United States for decades. The use of aircraft to transport cocaine appeared to increase significantly in 2009, when the U.S. Joint Interagency Task Force detected 54 suspected drug flights into Honduras -- up from 31 in 2008. Most of these aircraft departed from remote locations in eastern Colombia and southwestern Venezuela. In response, the United States began an aggressive interception program called Operation Anvil in conjunction with Central American police and military forces. The program appears partly responsible for reduced cocaine flights.

However, several measurements suggest that this success has not translated into reduced flows of cocaine to the United States. U.S. demand for the drug has not changed appreciably, and estimates show that the purity of cocaine trafficked in bulk has fallen only to 70 percent from about 80 percent since 2007 -- not a significant enough drop to indicate a supply problem, Meanwhile, retail prices have risen only slightly. Similarly, there have been no definitive signs of a slowdown in coca planting or cocaine production in South America.

Moreover, recent seizures suggest that because of the reduction in air transport, more cocaine is passing through ports in Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador. On March 4, Colombian authorities intercepted 770 kilograms (roughly 1,700 pounds) of cocaine on a boat bound for Central America. On Feb. 5, Colombian police discovered 1,900 kilograms of cocaine headed to Guatemala in a container at the port of Barranquilla. On Jan. 30, Honduran authorities seized 2,000 kilograms of cocaine in a container from the Colombian port city of Buenaventura.

But shifts in cocaine smuggling patterns are never permanent. Since local forces are incapable of replacing U.S. resources whenever U.S. attention wanes, drug flights could increase once again in coming years.

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