A protester holds a picture of Berkin Elvan during clashes with riot police in Istanbul on March 11. (BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
With less than three weeks until local elections, the death of a teenage protester has provided the catalyst for what promises to be another round of prolonged and destabilizing demonstrations against Turkey's ruling party. Any attempt by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to crack down on protests will have political and economic repercussions, exposing gaping government deficits, further weakening the lira and putting stress on consumers at a critical time in the election season.
Analysis
The March 11 death of Berkin Elvan, who turned 15 while in a coma after being struck in the head by a tear gas canister last June, rekindled protests across 28 provinces in Turkey ahead of the March 30 municipal elections. The largest protests have been reported in the Turkish capital of Ankara as well as Istanbul and Mersin on the Mediterranean coast. Protests also occurred in the resort town of Cesme on the Aegean Sea, Giresun on the Black Sea and in the Kurdish strongholds of Diyarbakir and Batman in the eastern province of Diyarbakir. Crowds have taken to the streets in the western cities of Edirne and Tekirdag, which have long been strongholds of the opposition.
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Some demonstrations provoked small clashes with police, with a few reported instances of tear gas being used to disperse crowds. Live footage and reports from Istanbul have shown scattered confrontations near the city's iconic Taksim Square, which was the epicenter of the 2013 protests. It was there that Elvan was injured while on his way to buy bread.
The March 11 protests have drawn together a disparate coalition against the ruling Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials AKP. Members of the main opposition Republican Peoples' Party quickly used the occasion of Elvan's death to criticize the AKP, a tactical move ahead of the elections. In a public show of remorse, one senior Republican Peoples' Party official read a poem he wrote in memory of Elvan at a rally in Edirne. Flags of pro-Kurdish parties, the Turkish communist party and environmental groups were on display among the crowds of protesters, which numbered in the low thousands in Ankara and Istanbul, according to some estimates.
Another Showdown?
The elements are in place for the demonstrations to swell and persist through the elections. The heated contests for Istanbul and other large AKP-run cities are already seen as a referendum on the party's 11 years in office. The once domineering AKP, while still carrying a commanding lead in polls, has been roiled by an internal fight with its erstwhile ally, the Gulen religious movement.
The Gulen movement drew a figurative battle line with the AKP over the 2013 Gezi Park protests. At the time, many of Turkey's political and business leaders remained cautious, preferring to wait and evade the first wave of backlash from the ruling party as Erdogan tried to defend his position. Using its media, police and judicial links, the Gulen movement followed the initial assault on Gezi with a stream of leaks, corruption charges and arrests designed to discredit Erdogan's inner circle and fracture the internal workings of the party.
The AKP's long-standing opponents in the Kemalist establishment, including powerful business tycoons such as Mustafa Koc, now appear ready to capitalize on the Gulen movement's commitment to this political battle by directly entering the fray against the AKP. Whereas the 2013 protests enabled the government's opponents to test the waters, the 2014 election season is driving them to act with urgency in the hopes of significantly undercutting the ruling party in the polls.
Forcing another showdown between anti-government protestors and a reluctant police force is a tactic that will likely be used in this election season. The AKP has performed well in polls despite its recent setbacks, but another crisis in the streets -- attracting international attention and scaring away much-needed short-term investment to stabilize the economy -- could give the opposition a timely boost.
Erdogan has concentrated on trying to neutralize his adversaries through a spate of hastily passed laws, tightening Internet controls and pulling the judiciary under control of the government. These moves will polarize the Turkish electorate, particularly voters who are already unnerved by what is seen as the government's intrusion into their personal lives. Kurdish votes may also be more difficult to come by for the AKP given the government's peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which predictably have become paralyzed.
In an apparent rear-guard action, the government has taken steps in recent days to release several top generals from prison, following a string of trials convicting them of plotting coups. Included in this group is former chief of staff Ilter Basbug, who is rumored to be considering running for the presidency himself. The release of the military brass (and several hard-line secular activists linked to the allegations of coup plotting) may well be an affront to the Gulen movement, which was ardently opposed to the military that has run Turkey from behind the scenes for years, frequently cracking down on the group and other Islamist movements. Even if an initial understanding with the government led to their release, there is no guarantee that this political move will not backfire against Erdogan as the ruling party's opponents are driven into a tighter tactical alliance despite their deep divisions.
Erdogan's opponents will not have to wait long for their next opportunity for demonstrations. On March 12, the funeral for Elvan, scheduled for approximately noon in the central -- and highly accessible -- Istanbul district of Okmeydani, is sure to attract a large crowd, spawning protests throughout the rest of the country.
This next round of unrest will test Turkey's ability to attract enough short-term investments to finance its gaping government deficits. Any political escalation will compound Ankara's economic problems by weakening the lira and putting further stress on consumers. Any attempt by Erdogan to swiftly crack down is more likely to aggravate the street protests than quell them, putting the prime minister in a bind just days ahead of a critical election.
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