Assessing the Security of Brazil's World Cup 2014

Summary


Brazil will host the 2014 World Cup from June 12 to July 13 in a dozen of its cities, including Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Brazil hosted the World Cup in 1950 without any major incident, but since then the country has transformed in many ways, including becoming one of the world's largest economies. It still struggles with corruption, rampant crime and occasional bouts of social unrest, however, and criminal and subversive elements will no doubt exploit the opportunities created by the approaching World Cup. This global event will face the threats of crime against spectators, online attacks, transportation disruptions and civil unrest in the form of protests.

Analysis
Brazil's major security concerns are murder, drug trafficking, prostitution, protests and petty crime. Much of this occurs in its dangerous slums, known as favelas, but it can also affect foreigners visiting the country. With the influx of World Cup tourists and matches spread across 12 cities, security for the event will be stretched thin, making it difficult for authorities to effectively protect all stadiums and spectators, as well as local residents.

Although Brazil will likely effectively secure the dozen stadiums from any large threats or disruptions, spectators could still fall victim to theft, robbery or even assault. Local criminals will target people at World Cup events, as well as tourists in the hotel and entertainment districts of host cities. There is also the potential for fighting to break out among soccer fans, as it has at past World Cups and other sports events, such as the 2013 Confederation Cup in Brazil and Argentina's Superclasico game. Security personnel at the venues will likely contain and isolate any such fighting quickly to avoid any further disruptions. Violence can also break out in areas outside venues, such as squares, bars or other places in which World Cup matches will be screened. Brazilian authorities will constantly supervise the streets outside venues and be on high alert, especially in host cities, to counter any disruptive protests.

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Brazil's National Secretariat of Public Safety is responsible for overall security at the World Cup (as well as the 2016 Olympics being held in Rio de Janeiro) with help from the Brazilian Intelligence Agency, FIFA, the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil Organizing Committee and the Brazilian justice and defense ministries. Brazil has committed roughly 170,000 troops and police to be deployed across the 12 host cities to better guarantee safety at the tournament. About 150,000 personnel will come from the armed services and police, and 20,000 security guards will be trained and work inside the stadiums. An additional 15,000 FIFA volunteers will be distributed among the host cities to assist tourists with basic information about the matches, host cities, transportation and the like.

In the case of any health concerns or injuries the Brazilians will be adequately prepared. There will be roughly 10,000 medical personnel, more than 530 mobile medical units, close to 70 medical emergency units and over 60 hospitals available. The Brazilian Ministry of Health will also provide a phone app that gives the location of hospitals and pharmacies, monitors health-related information in social networks and maps epidemiological trends.
General Crime

While Hezbollah has a well-documented presence in Brazil and al Qaeda has been known to operate in the tri-border region in the past, Hezbollah has no interest in doing anything to interfere with the logistics networks it uses for smuggling narcotics and other illicit goods, and the jihadist movement has very little interest in attacking Brazil. So the threat of a terrorist attack at the World Cup is extremely low. The most likely terrorist threat during the World Cup would be a low-level symbolic attack by anarchists against banks or corporate sponsors (see the protest and social unrest section below). The most pervasive threat to spectators and tourists is crime, specifically robbery and theft. Exercising situational awareness and common sense at all times will help mitigate these threats.

In general, Brazil has high incidences of burglary (which includes armed robbery categorically in Brazil), with 575.7 incidents per 100,000 inhabitants, and homicides, with a rate of 21 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to a 2011 U.N. Development Program report. Brazilian organized crime group First Command of the Capital said in October 2013 it had plans for a "horror World Cup." The group made threats to attack Sao Paulo Gov. Geraldo Alckmin, other elected officials whose names have not been reported and police officers during the World Cup. First Command of the Capital effectively carried out numerous attacks on patrol cars, buses and police stations in Sao Paulo in 2006 and 2012 when jailed leaders of the group were transferred to maximum security prisons. The threat against the World Cup was probably an effort to gain exposure and to postpone any future transfers of leaders to more secure prisons. Brazilian authorities have likely been monitoring the group's members for months, if not years. This, coupled with the increased security presence around World Cup facilities, means that even if the group were to carry out an attack, it probably would not target visitors and spectators -- though there is the potential for some to be affected or even injured, and for traffic to be disrupted as a result.
The Online Threat

Online criminals are continuously targeting global events such as the Olympics and the World Cup because they offer a global audience and an opportune time to target particular websites with attacks like a distributed denial-of-service attack (essentially jamming a particular website to make it unavailable). In this case, the websites for the World Cup, FIFA, the Brazilian government and other organizers or corporate sponsors will most likely be targeted. Internet criminals can also attempt to steal people's credit card and identification information. Already fake websites have been set up claiming to be affiliated with the World Cup or other legitimate ticket distributors in an attempt to acquire information and money. The hacker group Anonymous Rio made threats on its Facebook page in January that "there will be no World Cup" and promoting "Operation Stop the World Cup." The group did not explicitly state how it plans to do this, though it said it would only target the government and World Cup organizers, not the Brazilian people. As authorities in Brazil rush to better protect the country's telecommunications infrastructure from online attacks, and considering that last year's Confederation Cup saw more than 300 online attacks during the event, online infrastructure associated with the upcoming World Cup will most likely be attacked.
Transportation Disruptions

The Brazilian government expects 600,000 foreign visitors and 3 million local tourists during the World Cup. Aviation and road delays are already common in Brazil, and with this influx of people, roads and highways are going to be especially congested and could get substantially worse if threatened protests materialize. This will result in long delays for travelers throughout the country, providing ample opportunities for criminals to target individuals stuck in traffic and then quickly and easily escape. Carjackings and theft or robbery on public transportation are also possible.

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In 2007, when it won the bid for the 2014 World Cup, Brazil began expanding airports, building new public transportation systems and improving existing infrastructure in almost all the host cities. However, several projects, such as a light-rail system and the planned monorail in Manaus, have been delayed and will not be ready in time for the World Cup.

Also, because of construction delays due to strikes and protests by workers, construction accidents and deaths, as well as financing problems for projects, visitors to Brazil prior to and during the World Cup should expect unfinished construction at airports such as Guarulhos, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre. And as with any global event, most travelers will encounter long check-in and immigration lines, flight delays and cancellations.

Taxis and buses to and from host cities will be available to visitors and spectators but will likely be overwhelmed. Be aware that during busy events, unofficial transportation providers arise in Brazil. Tourists should only use legitimate registered companies and should avoid any unauthorized individuals and services. The Brazilian government has also created a website, the World Cup Portal, that provides information on the host cities, including useful contact numbers like the fire brigade and military police, hotels and lodging, legitimate transport and airport information. Because of the sheer volume of people expected to go to Brazil for the World Cup, some will likely stay in places they would not ordinarily have stayed. In an effort to avoid potential victimization of any sort avoid staying at favelas and seek housing from legitimate and well-known providers.
Protests and Social Unrest

Political violence and protests regularly occur throughout Brazil, especially in Brasilia, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre. Participants tend to include labor unions such as the Unified Workers' Central, anarchists such as Black Bloc, as well as grassroots groups such as the Homeless Workers' Movement, the Free Fare Movement and the Landless Workers' Movement. All these groups and others have the potential to use the highly publicized event as a platform to voice their concerns and dissatisfactions with the government, which range from inadequate public services, demands for free public transportation and owed or low worker's pay to the overall cost of the World Cup.

Members of Black Bloc, who disguise themselves in dark clothing and wear masks to conceal their identities, are usually the most violent and destructive. They typically piggyback on protests and attack police -- and in some instances other protesters -- with fireworks, Molotov cocktails and even small improvised explosive devices. Their activities also sometimes result in damaging storefronts and looting. On social media websites, Black Bloc and the umbrella resistance group Resistencia Urbana have already called for protests at the start of the World Cup. Resistencia Urbana's goal is to denounce the evictions of working families from their homes because of the World Cup by coordinating with other pro-housing movements such as the Homeless Workers' Movement. Black Bloc announced on its Facebook page plans for protests on June 12 in Sao Paulo, June 13 in Natal, Salvador and Cuiaba, and June 14 and 15 in the other host cities.

Peaceful demonstrations will be permitted, but they will have to be more than a mile away from any World Cup venues, according to Brazilian Deputy Minister of Sports Luis Fernandes. So protests are likely to occur and have the potential to turn violent. Brazilian authorities have created riot forces and started specialized training and contingency planning to be able to avoid or control anything like the large, violent and deadly protests that occurred during the 2013 Confederation Cup. Also, authorities have monitored various groups and individuals -- in Brazil and in neighboring countries such as Argentina -- who they think could instigate or participate in violent protests. Even if protests do not disrupt World Cup matches, they have the potential to impede traffic and accessibility around the country.

While crime, online attacks, transportation delays and protests will pose the most significant threats and disruptions to the World Cup tournament, Brazilian authorities are preparing for the worst. Although there will be a large security presence at the World Cup venues, there still is the potential for disruptions to occur. And with the influx of tourists intensifying existing crime, visitors should use caution and maintain situational awareness to better guarantee a safe stay.