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Iraq Update: Sunni Militants Make Key Gains in Anbar Province



Iraqi troops arrive to support Sunni anti-al Qaeda militia Sahwa (Awakening) in Ramadi, Anbar province, on June 21.(-/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary


Over the weekend of June 22, Sunni opposition fighters, including Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant militants, seized several important towns and border crossings in western Iraq's Anbar province. The insurgents took advantage of the army's reduced presence there; troops are being redeployed northward and eastward ahead of a planned offensive along the Tigris River. The Sunni gains made in Anbar will pressure the government and distract Baghdad from the impending offensive.

Analysis


The militant attacks in Anbar province were fast and concentrated, and they were directed against weak government forces hundreds of kilometers away from Baghdad. The result was the seizure of the towns of Rutba, Qaim, Rawah and Anah and three border crossings: the Qaim and Al Waleed crossings into Syria and the Trebil crossing into Jordan.

The militants' success is owed partly to Baghdad's offensive to the north. In preparation for the offensive, the government withdrew large numbers of regular Iraqi army units from Anbar province and dispatched further reinforcements from the south, massing these forces near As Samarra, northwest of Baghdad. The government continues to call for volunteers, and in response, large numbers of Shiite militia fighters have mobilized and moved north. Others are returning from Syria, where they had been defending the regime of Bashar al Assad against rebel forces that also included Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant militants.

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There are an estimated 50,000 Iraqi soldiers around As Samarra, and their presence has already slowed the militants' momentum south along the Tigris River. With these troops in place, the government will likely push north along two routes. One will seek to reinforce Baquba and move against Sunni militant forces in Diyala province. The other will head north from As Samarra toward Mosul, with the short-term goal of clearing Tikrit and securing the oil refinery at Baiji.

However, redeploying troops from Anbar province left the region vulnerable. Baghdad hoped to maintain control by coordinating with local Sunni tribes against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, in part by paying tribal fighters overdue salaries. Despite these efforts, Sunni tribes appear to have largely sided with the opposition coalition of Sunni militants against the government. Armed parades by Shiite militias in Baghdad and southern cities have aggravated concerns that the conflict would be divided along sectarian lines.

The recent Sunni advances have intensified the threat to the west of Baghdad, diverting government attention from the offensive toward the northeast. In addition, Sunni militants are now close to the important Haditha Dam on the Euphrates River. With control of the dam, rebels would be able to disrupt Iraq's national electric grid and cause major flooding. Baghdad has mobilized 2,000 soldiers toward the dam in an effort to maintain control accordingly.

Militant control of the Saudi and Jordanian borders in Anbar province virtually cut off land routes to Jordan and Syria from government-controlled areas. This has already severely disrupted Iraqi-Jordanian trade and will have a substantial impact on the Syrian regime's war effort, making it completely dependent on air and sea routes. Anonymous sources in the Iraqi security forces, however, issued unconfirmed reports June 23 that Baghdad has retaken the border stations at Trebil and Al Waleed, suggesting that these disruptions may be temporary.

As Baghdad prepares to begin its offensive toward the north, it will remain distracted by the deteriorating security situation in Anbar province, a situation that could eventually threaten the capital. But Sunni opposition forces will find it difficult to seize the capital or even make progress outside Sunni-majority areas, especially as tens of thousands of Shiite militiamen mobilize to defend the central government. This in turn will lead to an increasingly sectarian conflict amid slow, painful government advances.


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