Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is surrounded by reporters at his official residence in Tokyo on May 29.(JIJI PRESS/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
North Korea is quietly moving toward a temporary political accommodation with Japan that could ease Japanese sanctions and chip away at North Korea's economic isolation. Although the central issue under discussion is the status of nearly 90 Japanese citizens North Korea is thought to have abducted, deeper strategic interests are opening an opportunity for increased bilateral cooperation. A detente would offer North Korea a chance to soften its over-dependence on China, balancing relations with Tokyo against Beijing's disproportionate influence in Pyongyang. Meanwhile, easing tensions with North Korea would help Japan shore up its northern and western flanks so that it can shift the bulk of its security attention to its southern maritime interests.
Analysis
Japanese and North Korean officials will meet again in the coming days to assess Pyongyang's plans to investigate the abduction and current whereabouts of dozens of Japanese citizens allegedly seized by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. Some abductees were allegedly taken as part of North Korea's spy and infiltrator training program so its agents could learn contemporary Japanese language and culture.
Renewed Detente
The abductions have long been a source of tension between Pyongyang and Tokyo. Until a 2002 visit to Pyongyang by then-Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, North Korea effectively denied any abductions ever took place. During that summit, then-North Korean leader Kim Jong Il acknowledged that several abductions had taken place, and North Korea provided information on several of the abductees' whereabouts at the time. It also promised to investigate additional names supplied by Tokyo. Pyongyang gave permission for several abductees to return to Japan temporarily, though Tokyo reneged on its guarantee to require their return.
The detente proved temporary, ending in 2006 with North Korea's nuclear test and the inauguration of Shinzo Abe as Japanese prime minister. Japan imposed sanctions that effectively curtailed the transfer of money and the visit of ethnic Koreans in Japan to North Korea in addition to the international sanctions imposed on North Korea following the nuclear test.
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After a series of quiet and informal talks, in May 2014 Tokyo and Pyongyang renewed official discussions on the abductees, on the potential to lift sanctions, and possibly even on moving toward normalized relations. Tokyo has suggested it will ease sanctions that restrict travel and remittances once it sees progress by North Korea on the abductee investigations. Reports have also emerged that Abe (once again Japan's prime minister) may be seeking a visit to Pyongyang for a summit meeting with Kim Jong Un if the abduction issue is at least partially addressed.
North Korea's China Issue
The timing of the renewed discussions between the two countries reflects the rising concerns each has with China. North Korea depends heavily on China for foreign trade and economic activity. China accounts for around 50 percent of North Korea's total exports and imports and about 95 percent of North Korea's oil. If one removes inter-Korean trade, China accounts for somewhere between 70 and 90 percent of North Korea's total trade.
Pyongyang has sought additional sources of investment and revenue. But the political risk for doing business with North Korea remains high for companies from most countries, whereas Chinese companies are largely immune to that risk. Russia has begun edging back into North Korea, but Pyongyang is seeking a diplomatic breakthrough with an ally of the United States, like Japan, to further reduce the perception of risk and allow it to begin breaking out of its diplomatic and economic box.
North Korea's Geographic Challenge
Detente would also allow Pyongyang to reap economic benefits from Japan's Korean population. There are more than 600,000 ethnic Koreans in Japan, many of whom are long-term residents. About 150,000 belong to the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, or Chongryon, a pro-North Korean organization that has long helped North Korea to raise money in Japan and internationally.
Since the additional sanctions in 2006, Pyongyang found it increasingly difficult to access money and material from Chongryon. A series of scandals and investigations in Japan since then has further weakened the organization. Nonetheless, Pyongyang is eager to reinvigorate its relations with Chongryon as a way to access additional investment, and possibly as a source of trained ethnic Korean migrants to assist in economic reconstruction and reforms.
Japan's China Issue
China's increasingly assertive actions in the South and East China seas have raised strategic concerns in Tokyo. The Japanese government has responded by moving to revise its self-defense guidelines, beginning to reshape its military structure and posture, and starting a diplomatic offensive to change its regional environment. Tokyo engaged both Russia and North Korea as ways to reduce some of its stresses to its north to better focus its defense on countering Chinese activity to its southwest.
Although events in Ukraine have temporarily interrupted Japan's ties with Russia, Tokyo has continued its quiet rapprochement with North Korea. If Tokyo can reach some sort of accommodation with Russia and North Korea, even in the short term, its strategic interests in the Sea of Japan/East Sea will be relatively secure. This will allow it to shift its attention to the Ryukyu Islands and the East China Sea, where Japanese and Chinese ships and aircraft are coming into increasingly close proximity in waters and airspace each claims as their own.
Further improvements in North Korean-Japanese relations are not without problems. Pyongyang harbors longstanding animosities toward Japan, while Japan fundamentally mistrusts North Korea. Moreover, China and South Korea will not likely sit by and watch. Seoul is already offering Pyongyang additional talks on inter-Korean trade and investment. Beijing meanwhile has increased its diplomatic action with South Korea and the United States, urging the restart of the six-party talks. China naturally has more control over those talks than it could exercise over bilateral negotiations between North Korea and its neighbors.
The present common interests between Pyongyang and Tokyo may not lead to normalized relations. Still, the situation could at least see Japan ease sanctions, giving Pyongyang additional space to experiment with economic reforms and maybe attract a few investors to its recently announced special economic zones.
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