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Egypt Proposes a Problematic Cease-Fire


A missile is launched by an Iron Dome battery in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod on July 15.DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/Getty Images

Summary


A short-term cease-fire proposed by Egypt, accepted by Israel on July 15 and so far rejected by Gaza’s main Palestinian factions is already on shaky ground. The Israeli Cabinet voted in favor of the cease-fire but is now threatening to reconsider after a fresh barrage of rockets was launched from Gaza.

Analysis
Egypt's proposed cease-fire calls upon Israeli and Palestinian delegations to arrive in Cairo within 48 hours to discuss terms for a more lasting truce. The proposal issues a vague call for border crossings into Gaza to be reopened once the security situation is stabilized. Hamas is looking for firmer guarantees on the release of prisoners and the lifting of the Gaza blockade, while Israel is trying to move the cease-fire talks toward a negotiated plan that forces Hamas to give up its rocket arsenal. In the hours since the proposal, Hamas’s military wing, the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, has claimed responsibility for the most recent round of rocket attacks and has flat-out rejected the truce -- a rejection echoed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.


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Israel remains in a deep quandary. It could use the continued rocket attacks to justify a further escalation of Operation Protective Edge, but the same constraints that have led it to avoid a ground assault are pushing Israel to entertain a cease-fire now: It cannot destroy Gaza's rocket supply through an air campaign, and the political cost of deploying ground troops into the densely populated areas of Gaza where these stockpiles are hidden is simply too high. At the same time, Israel faces an immense challenge in interdicting the supply of rockets: Egypt has proven unreliable in stemming the flow of long-range rockets into Gaza, and Israel has failed through its own intelligence assets to detect significant shipments.

It should therefore come as no surprise that Hamas’ militant wing is brazenly rejecting the cease-fire. The group already expects to take a political hit from the destruction caused by this latest round of hostilities and the prolonged blockade on Gaza. The group needs to exploit this phase while it can, trying to notch a symbolic victory over an Israeli adversary that is reaching the limits of its air campaign.

Hamas also remains deeply distrustful of Egypt, having seen its parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, politically destroyed by the current military-led government in Cairo headed by President and former Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. But Cairo itself is divided over how to manage the cease-fire. One camp views the Israeli crackdown on Gaza as an extension of Egypt’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, and this faction favors addressing the Gaza situation with a firm hand. Another camp points to the political risks associated with Egypt seemingly aiding Israel’s policies in Gaza at the expense of Palestinian civilians, as well as the security risks. A weakening of Hamas' control over Gaza could allow Salafist-jihadist groups to emerge from the growing competition within the Gaza Strip, even as Cairo is already struggling with Salafist-jihadists in Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis and Ajnad Misr, groups based in Sinai and suspected of carrying out rocket attacks against Israel, have also struck in mainland Egypt.

Another dynamic extends beyond the Egypt-Gaza-Israel theater. It is no secret that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have benefited from a close military relationship with Iran, which has supplied these groups with a sizable arsenal of long-range rockets. But the United States’ attention is divided between its attempts to help move along a cease-fire and its negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal. There is also the question of whether Egypt can get Sudan -- a significant conduit to the rocket supply chain -- to limit its cooperation with Iran.

Though neither Hamas nor Israel is interested in a prolonged military conflict, the cease-fire negotiations will face multiple challenges in the days ahead. The talks are unlikely to fundamentally address Israel's dilemma in cutting off the supply of rockets to Gaza, nor are they likely to aid Hamas' efforts to lift the blockade.


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