Mediator Proliferation Complicates Gaza Negotiations

The Hamas administration building after it was hit by an overnight Israeli airstrike on July 16 in Gaza City.THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images

Analysis

After rejecting a seemingly rushed Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire early July 15, Hamas' political and military leadership has since been deliberating the terms it wants to propose for a fresh cease-fire initiative. Egypt is not, however, the only mediator in this round of Gaza hostilities. Qatar and Turkey are trying to usurp Egypt's role and increase their own leverage in the region by presenting themselves as the superior conduit between Gaza militant factions and Israel and the United States.

Stratfor has received indications that the Qatari leadership is already in consultations with Hamas over a fresh cease-fire proposal. Following the Egyptian military coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood -- the parent organization of Hamas -- from power, the Hamas leadership is deeply distrustful of Cairo and has already expressed its outrage at the preconditions that Egypt has allegedly proposed without consulting Hamas. With the Egypt-Hamas relationship under visible strain, there is now space for competing mediators to fill that role. This will only complicate any effort by Israel to de-escalate the conflict through diplomacy.

Israel shares a mutual interest with the military-led regime in Cairo on containing Hamas, even if Egypt has been ineffective in interdicting weapons destined for Gaza. Israel remains on uneasy terms with Turkey, however, and is suspicious of Hamas' growing ties to both Ankara and Doha. Moreover, Egypt is the only player among these three that has a direct hand in enforcing the terms of any cease-fire agreement when it comes to Sinai security. Israel's objective of neutralizing rocket attacks from Gaza, as well as Hamas' attempts to lift the economic blockade, already faced challenges, but the proliferation of mediators in the conflict will only further undermine the effort to de-escalate tensions overall.

Comments

Why States Still Use Barrel Bombs

Smoke ascends after a Syrian military helicopter allegedly dropped a barrel bomb over the city of Daraya on Jan. 31.(FADI DIRANI/AFP/Getty Images) Summary Barrel bombs are not especially effective weapons. They are often poorly constructed; they fail to detonate more often than other devices constructed for a similar purpose; and their lack of precision means they can have a disproportionate effect on civilian populations. However, combatants continue to use barrel bombs in conflicts, including in recent and ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, and they are ideally suited to the requirements of resource-poor states. Analysis Barrel bombs are improvised devices that contain explosive filling and shrapnel packed into a container, often in a cylindrical shape such as a barrel. The devices continue to be dropped on towns all over Syria . Indeed, there have been several documented cases of their use in Iraq over the past months, and residents of the city of Mosul, which was re...

Russia Looks East for New Oil Markets

Click to Enlarge In the final years of the Soviet Union, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev began orienting his foreign policy toward Asia in response to a rising Japan. Putin has also piloted a much-touted pivot to Asia, coinciding with renewed U.S. interest in the area. A good expression of intent was Russia's hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2012 in Vladivostok, near Russia's borders with China and North Korea. Although its efforts in Asia have been limited by more direct interests in Russia's periphery and in Europe, Moscow recently has been able to look more to the east. Part of this renewed interest involves finding new export markets for Russian hydrocarbons. Russia's economy relies on energy exports, particularly crude oil and natural gas exported via pipeline to the West. However, Western Europe is diversifying its energy sources as new supplies come online out of a desire to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies . This has ...

LONDON POLICE INDIRECTLY ENCOURAGE CRIMINALS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC PROPERTY

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE A few days ago an unknown perpetrator trespassed on the territory of the Russian Trade Delegation in London, causing damage to the property and the vehicles belonging to the trade delegation , Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during the September 12 press briefing. The diplomat revealed the response by the London police was discouraging. Police told that the case does not have any prospects and is likely to be closed. This was made despite the fact that the British law enforcement was provided with video surveillance tapes and detailed information shedding light on the incident. By this byehavior, British law inforcements indirectly encourage criminals to continue attacks on Russian diplomatic property in the UK. Zakharova’s statement on “Trespassing on the Russian Trade Mission premises in London” ( source ): During our briefings, we have repeatedly discussed compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, sp...

ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Search This Blog