Mediator Proliferation Complicates Gaza Negotiations

The Hamas administration building after it was hit by an overnight Israeli airstrike on July 16 in Gaza City.THOMAS COEX/AFP/Getty Images

Analysis

After rejecting a seemingly rushed Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire early July 15, Hamas' political and military leadership has since been deliberating the terms it wants to propose for a fresh cease-fire initiative. Egypt is not, however, the only mediator in this round of Gaza hostilities. Qatar and Turkey are trying to usurp Egypt's role and increase their own leverage in the region by presenting themselves as the superior conduit between Gaza militant factions and Israel and the United States.

Stratfor has received indications that the Qatari leadership is already in consultations with Hamas over a fresh cease-fire proposal. Following the Egyptian military coup that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood -- the parent organization of Hamas -- from power, the Hamas leadership is deeply distrustful of Cairo and has already expressed its outrage at the preconditions that Egypt has allegedly proposed without consulting Hamas. With the Egypt-Hamas relationship under visible strain, there is now space for competing mediators to fill that role. This will only complicate any effort by Israel to de-escalate the conflict through diplomacy.

Israel shares a mutual interest with the military-led regime in Cairo on containing Hamas, even if Egypt has been ineffective in interdicting weapons destined for Gaza. Israel remains on uneasy terms with Turkey, however, and is suspicious of Hamas' growing ties to both Ankara and Doha. Moreover, Egypt is the only player among these three that has a direct hand in enforcing the terms of any cease-fire agreement when it comes to Sinai security. Israel's objective of neutralizing rocket attacks from Gaza, as well as Hamas' attempts to lift the economic blockade, already faced challenges, but the proliferation of mediators in the conflict will only further undermine the effort to de-escalate tensions overall.

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