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Iraq Is Divided but Not Fractured



The ability of Iraq's various ethnic and sectarian political actors to elect a president and a parliamentary speaker in just nine days, despite the ongoing Sunni insurrection and Islamic State offensive, belies claims of the demise of the Iraqi nation. However, Iraq is not exactly a single political entity. The Kurds are seeking as much autonomy as they can get and the Sunnis are in rebellion, meaning that Iraq -- a federal entity on paper -- will largely behave as a confederation over time.

On July 24, Iraqi lawmakers elected senior Kurdish leader Fouad Massoum as the country's new president. Massoum's election comes a week after lawmakers chose Sunni leader Salim al-Jubouri as parliamentary speaker. Deciding which Shiite leader will become prime minister, the most powerful position in the post-Baathist republic, is the next step in forming a government following the April 30 elections.

Understanding the tensions within and among Iraq's three main communal groups is essential to understanding how the country functions. Yet Iraq's divided political landscape does not in itself explain what has been taking place since the republic emerged out of the cooperation and competition between the United States and Iran. To assess whether Baghdad has the ability to govern the various parts of the country, one must look at the situation geopolitically, going beyond which group or individual approved or opposed the appointment of this or that official.

Since the departure of U.S. troops in late 2011, the struggle for power between the federal government and the regional one in the northern Kurdish areas -- most distinctly manifested in the dispute over energy exports -- has intensified. At the same time, the sense of alienation among the Sunnis has returned. Things came to a head last month when a full-fledged Sunni insurrection led by the transnational jihadist group that calls itself the Islamic State broke out.

The Sunni revolt laid bare the reality that central government forces could not control the Sunni provinces. It also emboldened the Kurds to seek greater autonomy and threaten Baghdad with outright secession. Although the talk of independence was hollow, the Kurds were able to seize effective control of the disputed energy-rich Kirkuk region.

There are now three different political orders in the same country. Iraq's Shiite-dominated central government controls Baghdad province and the nine others to the south. Kurdistan exists in the three northernmost provinces plus Kirkuk. Most of the areas in the Sunni provinces -- Diyala, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Anbar -- are claimed as part of the Islamic State's caliphate, which stretches into Syria.

This is the geopolitical landscape in which the Shia, Kurds and mainstream Sunnis have come together to form a constitutional government. Should the controversial incumbent prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, be replaced, Baghdad could become more coherent and effective. But it is unlikely that Iraq will be anything more than a state where the regions have more power than the center.

This is not a recent development; this situation was hard-wired into the post-Baathist system from day one. The three ethnic and religious groups probably will not enter into a power-sharing arrangement leading to a normal coalition or unity government as is found in other countries. But there are enough arresters within and outside the country that will prevent Iraq's fragmentation.


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