Ukraine: Collapse of Ruling Coalition Could Lead to Early Elections

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev on June 16.SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Ukraine appears to be headed for early parliamentary elections. The Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform party and the Svoboda party, announced their departure from the ruling coalition July 24; Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk subsequently announced his resignation. By law, the parliament now has 30 days to form a new coalition. If it fails to do so, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko can dissolve parliament and call for early elections -- a likely outcome, given the parliament's current composition.

Analysis

Ukraine's parliament has gone through several changes since the uprising against former President Viktor Yanukovich. Before the uprising, Yanukovich's Party of Regions dominated the 450-member parliament. The party held the greatest number of seats, 187, and relied on its allies in the Communist Party, which had 32 seats, and many of the 43 independent lawmakers to push legislation through.

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However, since Yanukovich's ouster, the parliament has been greatly restructured, primarily at the expense of the Party of Regions. More than 60 lawmakers defected from the party immediately after the former president left office. Defections continued to weaken the party, leaving it with 78 lawmakers in parliament as of July 23. Many of those who left stayed in parliament as independent lawmakers initially, but three new factions have since emerged: Sovereign European Ukraine (35 seats), Economic Development (39 seats) and For Peace and Stability (34 seats). The first two parties have adopted a Europe-oriented position, while For Peace and Stability, which also includes former Communist Party members, has maintained a pro-Russia line. The number of independent lawmakers currently stands at 74.

The three parties that once constituted the opposition to Yanukovich and then became the ruling coalition -- Fatherland, Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform and Svoboda -- have also seen changes, albeit smaller ones. Fatherland, the pro-Western party of former prime ministers Yulia Timoshenko and Yatsenyuk, is now the largest party in parliament with 86 seats. Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, the pro-Western party of Kiev mayor Vitali Klitschko, holds 41 seats, while the nationalist Svoboda party holds 35 seats.

Poroshenko was elected at the end of May on a pro-Western mandate, but his Solidarity party is not currently represented in parliament. To pass legislation, he has relied on pro-Western allies from Fatherland, Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform and Svoboda as well as on the newly formed Sovereign European Ukraine and Economic Development parties. But the fluidity of the parties and factions in parliament have made it difficult for lawmakers to pass legislation, especially on issues that generate controversy, such as security operations in eastern Ukraine and a July 22 vote to initiate proceedings to ban the Communist Party on grounds of supporting the pro-Russian rebels in the east.

Poroshenko is therefore likely to move forward with new elections rather than oversee a new coalition. In fact, the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform and Svoboda resigned as part of an understanding with Poroshenko to force new elections. This would likely come at the expense of the Party of Regions, which is on the decline, and the Communist Party, while giving Poroshenko's Solidarity party an opportunity to enter parliament and strengthen the president's political power. The timing of the elections, which will probably be held in October, is also important, considering Ukraine's recent gains in security operations and a looming potential energy crisis with Russia.

Though Poroshenko could benefit from new elections, they will not necessarily be a smooth process. Ukraine remains fractious, with some of the divisions aggravated by the government's security operations in the east. Russia's strategy has been to exploit these divisions to undermine the Ukrainian government's coherence and legitimacy. New elections could counter this strategy if they come at the expense of pro-Russia parties. But the fighting in the east and continued anti-government sentiment among a significant portion of the population in the country's eastern and southern regions could complicate the holding of new elections.

There is also the potential for infighting within the pro-Western parties themselves; the Fatherland party has criticized the collapse of the coalition as being too "hasty." But it was clear that the parliament, as it was constituted, could not have been sustained and that Kiev's changing political structure will continue to be a major factor in Ukraine's standoff with Russia.

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