ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Central Asia has numerous important links to Afghanistan that will open the region to significant effects after the upcoming U.S. and NATO drawdown. First and foremost, Central Asia is linked to Afghanistan geographically; Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan share borders with Afghanistan that collectively span more than 2,000 kilometers (about 1,240 miles). Central Asia and Afghanistan also have important demographic ties. Because of the geography of the border areas, interaction and movement between the peoples of Central Asia and Afghanistan has historically been difficult to stop. Furthermore, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 created direct interaction between the Soviet Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmen and their ethnic cohorts in Afghanistan, with many of the former participating in Soviet military operations (in large part because of their ethno-linguistic ties). The Soviet Central Asians' exposure to their more tribal and religious Afghan counterparts c

Summary The two U.S. special operations raids to capture high-value targets in Libya and Somalia both occurred on Oct. 5 but do not seem to have been directly connected. The operations were most likely the consequences of distinct intelligence efforts, and their timing so close together was probably coincidental. Still, the operations illustrate that while the United States is avoiding larger and longer engagements, the use of limited special operations with smaller dispersed footprints and specific targets continues. Analysis The target of the operation in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, was Nazih Abdul-Hamed al-Ruqai, also known as Abu Anas al-Libi. He has been sought by the United States for his involvement in the 1998 embassy attacks in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam and was one of the original names on the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorists list when it was created in October 2001. Apart from his role in the embassy attacks, al-Libi had been tied to the al Qaeda core since its relocat

The European Union's debate over illegal immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers became much more sensitive after a ship holding some 500 immigrants sank last week near the Italian island of Lampedusa. Some 200 people drowned and as many as 150 are still missing. The incident prompted the Italian government to demand a renegotiation of EU policies on the issue, which home affairs ministers from member states will discuss during a meeting Oct. 8. While immigration will remain central to the EU agenda for some time, little progress will be made because EU members have neither the will nor the ability to enact meaningful reform. Europe's geographic position and high standards of living make it an attractive destination for African, Middle Eastern and Eastern European immigrants. According to the European Council of Refugees and Exiles, around 1.5 million of the world's 16 million recognized refugees currently live legally in Europe. Several million more immigrants live illega

Summary Editor's Note: A recent border dispute in the Fergana Valley, the core of Central Asia, highlights the growing tensions in the strategic and contested region. Kyrgyz and Uzbek border patrol units were removed from the Ungar-Too area in Kyrgyzstan's Jalal-Abad region Oct. 2, after a two-week standoff over an alleged Uzbek border incursion into the area. Such incursions, coupled with ethnic tensions and sporadic violence, have become increasingly common in the Fergana Valley region, which is split between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The valley has long been the population and agricultural heartland of Central Asia. It has also been one of the most unstable areas in the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union due to several factors, including diverse and interspersed populations, complex borders, dwindling resources and religious extremism. Analysis The Fergana Valley is located in Central Asia's southeast corner and is enclosed by the Tian S

By Scott Stewart In the wake of the assault on Nairobi's Westgate Mall , one of the media narratives that has fascinated me has been the focus on Samantha Lewthwaite, the so-called "white widow" of deceased suicide bomber Germaine Lindsay , who was one of the men responsible for the London Subway bombings on July 7, 2005. Really, the press coverage of Lewthwaite following the Westgate attack has been more like a media storm than a narrative, especially in Lewthwaite's home country, the United Kingdom. A British newspaper even published an article about the style of knickers she prefers. The nonsensical media coverage of Lewthwaite (and her knickers) typifies an issue that has bothered me for some time. The press, and indeed even some analysts, tend to overstate the importance of some jihadists merely because they speak English, or were born in an English-speaking country. The Lewthwaite Case Despite some witness reports from Nairobi claiming that an English-speaking w

Summary The timing of a North Korean delegation's visit to Iran for "friendship week" suggests that more than just a cultural exchange is taking place. The apparent U.S.-Russia agreement on Syria and the early steps toward dialogue between Washington and Tehran can help Pyongyang gauge any possible rapprochement with the United States. They also emphasize how differently North Korea formulates its strategy to deal with Washington. Analysis Under the auspice of the DPRK-Iran Friendship Association, North Korea and Iran mark friendship weeks nearly every year, but these usually come earlier in the year, between February and June. They also typically involve Iranian diplomats who are already stationed in North Korea, not North Korean delegations traveling to Iran. North Korean Labor Minister Jong Yong Su, the head of the association since 2005, has long-established relations with Tehran, and these ties may allow for a more candid dialogue between the two states -- a prospec

Tripoli announced recently that it would extend registration deadlines for nearly 100 local council elections that have been delayed for months due to weak voter interest. The central government's urgency about holding local elections reflects its growing reliance on a widening pool of disparate rural authorities -- a departure from its post-revolutionary model of working with larger regional power centers to maintain a fragile peace . Tripoli's weakened hold over Libyan security and power became evident soon after the ouster of former leader Moammar Gadhafi in October 2011. The interim authority that replaced him, the National Transitional Council, was tasked with holding together a country that is naturally fractured by geography and regional differences , without the strong security and political tools of the Gadhafi regime. The result has been a complicated system of interdependence between the central government and Libya's various urban centers and their respe

Summary For the second day in a row, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has denied that the recent death of Mojtaba Ahmadi, an Iranian allegedly working under a cyberwarfare unit linked to the corps, was an assassination. The murky details surrounding Ahmadi's death raise many more questions than answers, but the information released so far does not appear to support widespread speculation that this was either an Israeli-orchestrated operation or the result of an IRGC power struggle amid a developing U.S.-Iranian dialogue. Analysis Mojtaba Ahmadi was found dead Oct. 2 in a forested area near his home in the town of Karaj, northwest of Tehran. An eyewitness at the scene of the police investigation told Alborz news agency, a regional media outlet based in northwestern Iran, that Ahmadi had two bullet wounds in his chest, suggesting he was shot at close range. The local police chief also told Alborz that two motorcycles were seeing fleeing the scene. Footage of Ahmadi'