ISDEI Instituto de Seguridad, Defensa y Estudios Internacionales

Sorry, but the real number of Arab Israelis isn't an existential threat to the Jewish state. BY Uri Sadot December 19, 2013 - " FP " - If you listen to some top American and Israeli officials, Israel's "demographic time bomb" is ticking -- and it's set to explode any day now. Secretary of State John Kerry warned on Dec. 7 that Israel's demographic dynamics represented an "existential threat ... that makes it impossible for Israel to preserve its future as a democratic, Jewish state." Some officials in Jerusalem agree with him: Israeli opposition leader Isaac Herzog and senior Cabinet member Yair Lapid last week echoed similar concerns that demographic trends would turn Israel into a "bi-national state." On all three occasions, demography was cited as an urgent reason to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The argument, in a nutshell, goes like this: The birth rate among Arab families in Israel and Palestine is higher than...

Taiwan's first six Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters arrived in Kaohsiung Port on 4 November. Source: Republic of China Army Taiwan has grounded six recently delivered AH-64E Apache attack helicopters due to the risk of main transmission failure, the country's Ministry of National Defence (MND) revealed on 18 December. Defense Minister Yen Ming said the United States had told Taiwan that the malfunction was affecting US Army AH-64Es and as a result Taipei had suspended all AH-64E operations for safety checks. Taiwan is the first foreign operator of the AH-64E, which entered US Army service in late 2011. Speaking during a meeting of the legislative Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, Lieutenant General Hao Yii-jy, Chief of Staff of the Army, said the US had told the MND on 17 December. The MND said it has suspended all Apache training operations "pending a full investigation being carried out by the United States into the cause of the malfunction". T...

Click to Enlarge China's declaration of a new air defense identification zone has added a new dimension to regional tensions over territorial and international space that seems likely to remain in place. The general risk of an incident, air collision or crash has significantly increased due to the disagreement over the legitimacy of China's zone, uncertainty over its enforcement, and the underlying fears over future administrative control and sovereignty. Japan fears that whatever it does, China will take further steps to build its presence in the disputed territories and whittle away the status quo of Japanese control. For that reason, Japan is also likely to continue to monitor its air defense zone energetically. The rising trend of Japanese Air Self-Defense Force jets scrambling to intercept aircraft breaching its zone looks set to continue. This trend has been mirrored by China, with the rising prominence of Japanese interceptions of Chinese aircraft overtaking those of ...

The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance of the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines. Carrier Strike Groups The USS Harry S. Truman CSG with CVW 3 embarked is underway in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility supporting maritime security operations and conducting theater security cooperation efforts. The USS George H.W. Bush is underway in the Atlantic Ocean for routine training. Amphibious ...

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Geneva on Nov. 24. (ALEXANDER KLEIN/AFP/Getty Images Summary The resurfacing in Iranian and U.S. media of the case of missing U.S. citizen Robert Levinson offers a small but revealing snapshot of the ongoing thaw of ties between Washington and Tehran. In a news conference Dec. 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham reiterated Iran's claim that Levinson is no longer in the country. Afkham went on to mention Iran's concern over Iranian detainees in the United States -- a sign that Tehran may be pursuing a prisoner swap with Washington as part of broader negotiations. Analysis Iran holds the United States responsible for the detainment of several Iranians, some of whom could be exchanged for Levinson. As the United States and Iran continue negotiations toward a conclusive deal on Iran's nuclear program, both sides will bring tangential issues such as this to the table, attempting to exact as many concessions from the ot...

By Pepe Escobar December 18, 2013 - It happened now and it will happen again: a near-collision between an American and a Chinese naval vessel in the South China Sea. The USS Cowpens, a 10,000-ton guided-missile cruiser, got "too close" to a drill involving the Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier, and its carrier task force, according to the Global Times. The US Pacific Fleet stressed that the cruiser had to take emergency measures to avoid a collision. Yet the Global Times accused the cruiser of "harassing" the Liaoning formation by taking "offensive actions" . The paper spelt it loudly; "If the American navy and air force always encroach near China's doorstep, confrontation is bound to take place." Finally, China's Defense Ministry intervened to clarify that the vessels had "met" each other in the South China Sea but the worst was avoided via "effective and normal communication". Communication had better be d...

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends the ceremony for the formation of a new coalition government in Berlin on Dec. 16 (Carsten Koall/Getty Images) Analysis Germany's new coalition government -- consisting of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union party, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the center-left Social Democratic Party -- officially took power on Dec. 17 after the German parliament voted to confirm Merkel's third chancellorship. There were two surprises among a host of familiar faces in the revamped 16-member Cabinet: Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen as defense minister and Social Democrat Joerg Asmussen as deputy labor minister (he will need to leave the European Central Bank's Executive Board). Christian Democrat Wolfgang Schauble will retain his post as finance minister. The Social Democrats' most prominent appointments will be Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister and Sigmar Gab...

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit (C) is surrounded by his security detail during a rally in South Sudan's Unity state April 8, 2010. (MOHAMED DAHIR/AFP/Getty Images) Summary A firefight that broke out late Dec. 15 in the South Sudanese capital of Juba does not appear to have been an attempted coup, as some news organizations have reported. Rather, the incident -- in which presidential guard members with different tribal backgrounds fought at their barracks in the capital -- highlights the persisting tribal frictions in South Sudan. These tribal frictions take a central role in the political competition between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and former Vice President Riek Machar, who come from different tribes, as they prepare to compete for the presidency in the 2015 election. Moreover, the incident is unlikely to affect the flow of oil from South Sudan through Sudan. Even if there were a change in government in Juba, the new government would face the same economic cons...